From 400 Syria. Analytics and comments

In addition to the transfer of weapons, Russia has deployed advanced S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems (NATO reporting name SA-21 Growler, Grumpy) in Syria. This was reported by the British publication The Daily Mail, citing photographs taken by 50 Western journalists invited by the Russian Ministry of Defense to the Khmeimim airbase in the Syrian province of Latakia, where Russian aviation is based.

The photographs were published on the website of the Russian military department. The Daily Mail notes that the state-of-the-art S-400 missile systems have a maximum engagement range of 250 miles (402 km) and are capable of shooting down targets at altitudes of up to 90 thousand feet (27 km), which is more than double the cruising altitude of a passenger airliner.

From a well protected base missile system could cover an area including most of Syria, southern Turkey, Cyprus, the eastern Mediterranean, and including Israel. It is also capable of tracking and engaging British aircraft based at the UK Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus.

At the moment, there is no complete certainty that the S-400, and not one of the S-300 modifications, is deployed in Syria. Nevertheless, as Mir Novostey writes, the appearance of the images caused a stir in the Western coalition and, above all, in the United States, where they still have not given up on the idea of establishing no-fly zones over Syria. It was for this purpose that American F-15 fighters were deployed to Turkey. It is believed that the S-400 can shoot down american planes fifth generation F-22s, which were deployed to a base in Qatar.

Experts are speculating about what could be causing the images to appear. According to one version, this may be a signal sent by the Russian Federation to other countries. “By deploying the S-400 in Latakia, Russia sends a signal to Turkey and Israel, and also creates air shield over the coast of Syria,” writes analyst Yuri Barmin on Twitter. In another message, he hints that the appearance of S-400 images could be another “leak” of information about Russian weapons, as was the case with the top-secret Status-6 system.

MigNews notes that in any case, such developments seriously complicate Israel’s ability to suppress smuggling attempts modern weapons Hezbollah. Previously, Tel Aviv had already opposed Russia’s armament of Syria, as well as the supply of weapons to Iran. Moscow expects that Iran will in return withdraw its four-billion-dollar claim filed against Russia at the International Court of Arbitration in Geneva. For this purpose, the Russian Federation even provided the Islamic Republic with a loan of seven billion dollars, a source at RIA Novosti at Vnesheconombank (VEB) told RIA Novosti the day before.

US presidential contender threatens to shoot down Russian planes in Syria

From September 30, Russia is holding air operation in Syria against Islamists. Even before the operation begins Western media reported that the Russian Federation is supplying weapons to Syria, including modernized ones anti-aircraft systems(ZRPK) "Pantsir-S1", and assumed that Moscow plans to create air force base in Latakia.

The leadership of the Russian Federation argued that Russian planes deliver military products to Syria in accordance with existing contracts and humanitarian aid. Regarding the military base, it was claimed that the idea of creating a Russian “service point” in Syria was indeed discussed, but a decision has not yet been made.

On November 5, Moscow confirmed that Russia had transferred not only aircraft to Syria, but also anti-aircraft missile systems. This was recognized by the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Colonel General Viktor Bondarev.

A military-diplomatic source of the Interfax agency said that Russia has supplied anti-aircraft missiles to Syria missile and gun systems"Pantsir-S1" and medium-range air defense system "Buk-M2E" to protect the air base in Latakia from possible terrorist attacks from the ground and air. He said that in the SAR, with the participation of Russia, a Unified Air Defense System (US) has been created, which also includes modernized Osa, S-125 Pechora-2M air defense systems, S-200 air defense systems and other systems. He did not report anything about the S-400 air defense system.

Meanwhile, there have been calls in the United States to shoot down Russian warplanes in Syria if they attack Washington-backed opposition forces. This call was made, in particular, by the US presidential candidate from the Republican Party, Senator from South Carolina Lindsey Graham. “The first thing I would say to Putin is, if you bomb those we train in Syria, I will shoot down your planes,” the senator said on AM 970 The Answer.

Other candidates for the US presidency have previously made similar statements. Thus, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie supported the idea of creating a no-fly zone in Syria and said that he would shoot down Russian planes in case of violations. According to another Republican candidate, Marco Rubio, if Russia violated the boundaries of such a zone, it “would be in trouble.”

Earlier, Indian media reported that Russia and India agreed to conclude a contract for the supply of S-400 worth about $10 billion. This could become the largest bilateral defense deal. According to media reports, the contract will be officially signed during the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Moscow, which is expected in December.

The latest Russian air defense system, the S-400 Triumph, is arousing great interest abroad. This was announced by the head of the Rostec state corporation Sergei Chemezov. “There are a lot of people who want (to buy it), including Saudi Arabia, but the contract has not yet been signed with anyone except China,” said the CEO of Rostec in Dubai at the Dubai Airshow 2015 international air show.

The increased interest in the Russian S-400 systems is caused, first of all, by its unique characteristics, says Doctor of Military Sciences, columnist for the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper Konstantin Sivkov.

"The original roots of this complex lie in the Soviet era. This is our response to American project missile defense SOI. But they didn’t make their own system then, but we made our own complex. Its value is characterized by the following things: long firing range - it hits air targets at an altitude of up to 300 kilometers. The second feature is that it shoots according to the “fire and forget” principle. That is, in its latest modifications, the missiles have a homing head that locks onto a target at a great distance and destroys it. Accompany this target until the missile meets it, as, for example, in modern American complexes, no need. The third attractive feature of the complex is that it allows you to hit over-the-horizon targets. No other missile system can currently do this. The missile makes a slide, locks onto a target beyond the horizon and kills it. It also has fairly good noise immunity, and is practically invulnerable to existing radio jamming systems. Therefore, there is, of course, huge interest in this complex,” Konstantin Sivkov said on Sputnik radio.

According to a military expert, the S-400 has no competitors. “The S-400 complex has no analogues among Western models. This complex is unique in its combat capabilities, and there is no equivalent in the world. For example, American system THAAD is inferior in range and does not shoot beyond the horizon. It is only anti-missile and can only fire at ballistic targets,” noted Konstantin Sivkov.

The Russian S-400 Triumph system turned out to be powerless against the F-35 fighter: the air defense system could neither stop nor recognize an Israeli fifth-generation fighter in the Syrian province of Damascus. As a result, the plane hit the targets without hindrance and “waved the Russian wing.” This assessment of the S-400 is now being actively promoted on the Internet and promoted by some media outlets with reference to the authoritative American publication Defense News.

This episode occurred on the night of January 13, 2017, when a series of powerful explosions occurred at the Mezze military airfield in Damascus, which is an important strategic air base. The Syrian government army accused the IDF of causing missile strike at the air base, and through the state agency SANA warned Israel about possible consequences this "blatant attack". It was then that Syrian and Lebanese sources on social networks and some media outlets, with reference to the “Information Center of the Khmeimim Air Base” (a private source of information that has been repeatedly seen publishing fake news like “VKS fighter jets collided on the taxiway of Khmeimim”), disseminated information about the first use Israel's fifth-generation F-35 aircraft.

The IDF press service and other Israeli official sources did not comment on this information at the time.

Fifth generation fighter F-35 (Photo: AP/TASS)

“SP” was unable to find a Defense News publication that stated that the F-35 fighter was used in Syria. An American website did publish an article (January 24) that quoted the Israeli Air Force commander as saying that the deployment of the S-400 system in Syria poses a “critical challenge” to Israeli operations in the region. And also the words of a Lockheed Martin representative about the advantages of using the F-35 in conditions of the high threat “created by the Russian C-400 system.” That's all.

Purely tactical actions also make us doubt the news about the super capabilities of the F-35. It is not clear how one machine could take part in an operation if in fighter aviation the primary unit that is capable of deciding combat mission, - a pair of planes. The use of the F-35 together with the F-16 hardly made sense due to the “recognizability” of the latter fighter.

But even if we omit this fact, could a pair of fifth-generation fighters really take part in the raid and go unnoticed by air defense systems?

So far, aviation does not know technologies that would make an aircraft completely invisible to detection equipment, says former commander of the 4th Air Force Air Force and Air Defense, Lieutenant General, Hero Russian Federation Valery Gorbenko.

- Another thing is that the whole story attack aircraft, overcoming and suppressing air defenses moved towards reducing the effective reflective surface aircraft, that is, to make it less noticeable. We also began long ago to carry out work within the framework of the so-called 4S concept: stealth (invisibility), supersonic (supersonic), super maneuverability (increased maneuverability), superior avionics (improved avionics). But invisible planes does not exist.

The vulnerability of stealth aircraft was well demonstrated by the experience of the war in Yugoslavia, when the 250th anti-aircraft missile brigade of Serbia, commanded by Lieutenant Colonel Djordje Anicic, in 1999, the Soviet short-range air defense system S-125 "Neva" (export name - "Pechora") shot down the widely promoted stealth strike aircraft F-117A Nighthawk of the US Air Force. The brigade division was in an ambush and successfully used its complex.

As for the capabilities of the F-35, this is probably good fighter, despite all its problems, it is still difficult to say anything concrete about its capabilities. Most likely, the aircraft's radar equipment makes it possible to divert the missile from the target with a sufficient miss or set false targets, but the fighter will still be detected. There is always a lot of speculation in the media.

“SP”: — They concern not only the F-35, but also the S-400 air defense system.

- Certainly. Often, overseas or domestic analysts boldly talk about the capabilities of the anti-aircraft system, but honestly, without familiarizing myself with the data on the spot, I cannot say for sure whether the S-400 division is covering Damascus. Our systems cover two Russian bases, and as for the south of the country, here you need to specifically know the distance, terrain features, etc. That is, the Golan Heights and the outskirts of Damascus are not necessarily in the S-400’s affected area, although, of course, the radar detects and irradiates targets much further away - perhaps , still on Israeli territory.

In addition, do not forget about the existence of primary and secondary locations of radar stations. For example, automatic detection of all (!) airborne objects is carried out according to data from the primary radar, which is also a reconnaissance tool. Secondary locator (also used in civil aviation) receives signals from aircraft transponders - the same transponders that are talked about so much in relation to incidents in the skies of the Baltic.

Thus, with the help of secondary locators, when the transponder is turned on, it is possible to obtain additional flight information about the aircraft (board number and heading, current altitude, remaining fuel, state of on-board systems, etc.), which increases flight safety and reduces the likelihood of accidental damage by air defense systems. But, I repeat, the primary locator determines all targets.

The use of stealth technologies simply reduces the reflective surface of the aircraft and affects its detection range. So, even if the F-35 theoretically participated in the operation under discussion, which I, of course, exclude, it would still have been noticed.

The welcoming ceremony of the first pair of F-35 Adir (F-35I) aircraft, taking off from Fort Worth (Texas), at the Israeli military base Nevatim took place on December 12, 2016, notes a researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, editor-in-chief magazine "Arms Export" Andrey Frolov.

— And on December 15, a video of the first flight of fighter-bombers, which were accompanied in the sky by F-16s, appeared on the Internet. However, on December 18, it became known that about 30 Lockheed Martin specialists and three representatives of the US Air Force (two pilots and a flight crew instructor) would remain in Israel indefinitely to help the Israeli Air Force operate and maintain the F-35I.

In general, it is unlikely that the Israelis would send combat operation aircraft that are practically not yet mastered by pilots. And “testing” fighters, especially computerized F-35s, is a rather long procedure. Moreover, the F-35 has not fully passed a series of tests in the United States either. Apparently, restrictions are gradually being lifted from it and there are suspicions that the aircraft does not yet have all the capabilities. And in order to hit something in Syria, it is not necessary to fly a fifth-generation aircraft, and even with the risk of its destruction, since Syrian air defense systems in the Damascus area apparently still work.

In addition, given the distances in the Golan Heights and in the vicinity of Damascus, the Israeli Air Force can easily launch an airstrike with guided missiles without entering the range of the air defense system. Not to mention the fact that there is information according to which the IDF did not use aviation at all on January 13, and the strike was carried out by a surface-to-surface missile.

And finally, the agreements between Moscow and Israel, which have the nature of a transaction, are already an open secret. Therefore, no matter what Israeli Air Force planes fly, our military knows about it and will not shoot.

“SP”: — Hypothetically, the F-35 can really give advantages to the opposing air forces in the presence of the S-400 air defense system?

— Stealth technologies are not a panacea, but they reduce the detection range of an aircraft, giving it some tactical advantages during operations. Roughly speaking, he can see further than they can see him. But there are not only air defense locators, but also, for example, automated passive electronic reconnaissance stations that detect an aircraft without detecting themselves. This is the first thing.

Secondly, due to the terrain, our air defense systems have limitations and it can be assumed that the S-400 division deployed in Latakia cannot demonstrate all its capabilities. Moreover, apparently, the air defense system is used in a certain limited mode so that our opponents cannot completely remove all the characteristics from it. In addition, in addition to the S-400, Syria has our S-300V4.

In modern air combat it is the onboard and radio-electronic equipment that decides a lot, and reducing the radar signature of the aircraft is a kind of bonus, notes Lecturer at the Military University of the Ministry of Defense, retired Air Force Colonel Vladimir Karyakin.

— Detection of stealth aircraft is an air defense tactic. Theoretically, it is necessary to increase the energy of the station’s emitted signal, apply various methods sensing, signal processing and different ranges - meter, decimeter, centimeter, etc. In practice, as far as is known, the reflective surface of, for example, the F-117A Nighthawk “stealth aircraft” in the centimeter range was reduced, and in the meter range - standard for the duty equipment of the RTV (Radio Technical Troops) of the Russian Federation - it was clearly visible. But even in centimeter it was still noticeable, which makes it possible to fire at the plane.

Theoretically, one can imagine that the Israeli Air Force could operate from the Golan Heights and that the short distance does not allow a quick response to attacks. Or - that the planes come from Lebanese airspace, using the mountains of Lebanon and Anti-Lebanon as cover from the Syrian air defense radar. But it is clear that there are political agreements between the Russian Federation and Israel, where the Russian Federation allows the IDF to strike Hezbollah (although its positions with the Syrian army are often mixed), and Israel plays a role in stabilizing the situation in the south of the country.

In general, publications that the S-400 system allegedly did not see F-35 fighters, which in fact were not there, are inventions not even of the American media, but of the Russian-language Israeli press to increase citations and denigrate the Russian Armed Forces. In principle, this is not surprising if we remember that some media at one time wrote in all seriousness that “Admiral Kuznetsov” was going to Syria to bomb Israel...

Illustration copyright Getty Image caption Russia is increasing its influence in Syria by deploying the S-400 there

After the Russian Su-24 bomber was shot down by the Turkish Air Force, Moscow is strengthening its contingent in Syria.

Russian bombers will now be equipped with air-to-air missiles, and the cruiser Moskva will move closer to the Syrian coast to provide additional support to a Russian air base located near the Syrian port of Latakia.

But the most significant strengthening of Russian positions in Syria will be the deployment anti-aircraft complex S-400. His launchers and radar vehicles are already at the Russian base.

S-400 - the most modern Russian air defense system long range. From a base in Latakia, S-400 surface-to-air missiles can hit targets within a radius that includes most of Israel, the eastern Mediterranean (including Cyprus, where the RAF base is located), and most of Turkey.

Protection of "combat units"

The S-400's powerful radars provide a detailed picture of the "air landscape" within a radius even greater than its missiles reach.

For example, they can monitor coalition air operations and what the Israeli Air Force is doing.

Manufacturer:"Almaz-Antey"

Accommodation: Khmeimim base near the city of Latakia, entered service Russian army in 2007

Range: 400 km

Speed: up to 4.8 km per second

Target hit height: 30 km, can track multiple targets simultaneously

Types of goals: airplanes, cruise missiles, cruise missiles medium range, drones and other radio-controlled aerial tracking systems.

Source: Concern "Almaz-Antey"

Early detection radar tracks the movement of objects and transmits information to command center, which identifies potential targets
The target is identified and the command center gives the order to open fire
The coordinates of the target are sent to the complex closest to the target, and it begins launching surface-to-air missiles.
The all-altitude detector tracks targets and assists missile guidance

__________________________________________________________________________________

Of course, I do not believe that Russia is deploying anti-aircraft missile system S-400 in order to interfere with the actions of the coalition in Syria. However, Moscow is making a serious statement in this way. It sends a clear signal, not only to Turkey, but also public opinion in Russia that it intends to defend its air force by all methods it deems necessary.

However, it is difficult to imagine that the S-400 will actually be directed against coalition fighters. Given their number in Syria, it will not be easy not only to track them all, but also to single out the Turkish ones among them. But the presence of this complex in Syria will significantly complicate the planning of actions for the coalition.

NATO and US officials have been tight-lipped about the S-400, but one senior NATO diplomat acknowledged that the deployment of this air defense system, as well as others, the latest systems"in Syria, where many other countries are active," makes the situation even more complex.

Since the deployment of the S-400, the number of coalition airstrikes has decreased, and most missions are carried out by drones. However, it is difficult to judge whether the decrease in airstrikes reflects concerns about the S-400 or whether it is simply a natural decrease in the intensity of strikes.

Illustration copyright Getty Image caption C-400 missile launch

When I spoke with NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg about the potential threat posed by the deployment of the S-400 in Syria, he was reserved in his specific predictions, but saw the fact that the complex's range includes Turkish territory as part of Russian strategy.

According to him, Russia has deployed the latest defense systems along all its western borders in order to prevent NATO intervention in the event of a crisis.

The deployment of the S-400 once again indicates the need for dialogue between the coalition countries and Russia.

Israel has already intensified negotiations with Moscow.

Last weekend, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon noted that a Russian plane had violated air border Israel, however, no action was taken against him, since he was not considered a potential threat.

While NATO continues to publicly emphasize that it will do everything to protect Turkey's sovereignty, in private conversations too many are saying that Turkey could use a little less stubbornness.

From a well-protected base, the missile system can cover an area including most of Syria, southern Turkey, Cyprus, the eastern Mediterranean, and including Israel. It is also capable of tracking and engaging British aircraft based at the UK Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus.

At the moment, there is no complete certainty that the S-400, and not one of the S-300 modifications, is deployed in Syria. Nevertheless, as Mir Novostey writes, the appearance of the images caused a stir in the Western coalition and, above all, in the United States, where they still have not given up on the idea of establishing no-fly zones over Syria. It was for this purpose that American F-15 fighters were deployed to Turkey. It is believed that the S-400 can also shoot down American fifth-generation F-22 aircraft, which are deployed to a base in Qatar.

Experts are speculating about what could be causing the images to appear. According to one version, this may be a signal sent by the Russian Federation to other countries. “By deploying the S-400 in Latakia, Russia is sending a signal to Turkey and Israel, and also creating an air shield over the Syrian coast,” writes analyst Yuri Barmin on Twitter. In another message, he hints that the appearance of S-400 images could be another “leak” of information about Russian weapons, as was the case with the top-secret Status-6 system.

MigNews notes that in any case, such developments seriously complicate Israel’s ability to suppress attempts to smuggle modern weapons to Hezbollah. Previously, Tel Aviv had already opposed Russia’s arming of Syria, as well as the supply of weapons to Iran. Moscow expects that Iran will in return withdraw its four-billion-dollar claim filed against Russia at the International Court of Arbitration in Geneva. For this purpose, the Russian Federation even provided the Islamic Republic with a loan of seven billion dollars, a source at RIA Novosti at Vnesheconombank (VEB) told RIA Novosti the day before.

US presidential contender threatens to shoot down Russian planes in Syria

Since September 30, Russia has been conducting an air operation in Syria against Islamists. Even before the start of the operation, Western media reported that the Russian Federation was supplying weapons to Syria, including modernized Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft systems (ZRPK), and assumed that Moscow was planning to create a military air base in Latakia.

The Russian leadership claimed that Russian aircraft were delivering military products to Syria in accordance with existing contracts and humanitarian aid. Regarding the military base, it was claimed that the idea of creating a Russian “service point” in Syria was indeed discussed, but a decision has not yet been made.

A military-diplomatic source of the Interfax agency said that Russia has supplied Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun systems and Buk-M2E medium-range air defense systems to Syria to protect the air base in Latakia from possible terrorist attacks from the ground and air. He said that in the SAR, with the participation of Russia, a Unified Air Defense System (US) has been created, which also includes modernized Osa, S-125 Pechora-2M air defense systems, S-200 air defense systems and other systems. He did not report anything about the S-400 air defense system.

The latest Russian air defense system, the S-400 Triumph, is arousing great interest abroad. This was announced by the head of the Rostec state corporation Sergei Chemezov. “There are a lot of people who want to (purchase it), including Saudi Arabia, but the contract has not yet been signed with anyone except China,” said the general director of Rostec in Dubai at the Dubai Airshow 2015 international air show.

The increased interest in the Russian S-400 systems is caused, first of all, by its unique characteristics, says Konstantin Sivkov, Doctor of Military Sciences, columnist for the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper.

“The original roots of this complex lie in the Soviet era. This is our response to the American SDI missile defense project. But they didn’t make their own system then, but we made our own complex. Its value is characterized by the following things: long firing range - it hits air targets at altitude up to 300 kilometers. The second feature is that it fires according to the “fire and forget” principle. That is, its latest modifications have a homing head that locks onto a target at a great distance and destroys it until the missile hits it. , for example, in modern American complexes, there is no need. The third feature of the complex, which is attractive, is that it allows you to hit over-the-horizon targets. No other missile system can currently do this and capture a target beyond the horizon. and kills it. It also has fairly good noise immunity, and is practically invulnerable to existing radio jamming systems. Therefore, there is, of course, huge interest in this complex,” Konstantin Sivkov said on Sputnik radio.

According to a military expert, the S-400 has no competitors. “The S-400 complex has no analogues among Western models. This complex is unique in its combat capabilities, and there is no equivalent in the world. For example, the American THAAD system is inferior in range and does not shoot beyond the horizon. It is only anti-missile and can only fire at ballistic targets,” noted Konstantin Sivkov.

After April 7 American destroyers Ross and Porter launched a strike with Tomahawk cruise missiles at the Syrian airbase of Shayrat in Homs province, and Russian anti-aircraft missile systems did not repulse the attack, doubts arose about their effectiveness - as previously stated, they tightly close the sky over Syria from outside interference. Our Version's correspondent found out why Russia didn't even try to prevent the Tomahawk attack.

Back in 2013, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that modern S-400 Triumph systems had been deployed to Syria, which were capable of protecting the country’s airspace from any possible attacks. The claims were supported by the fantastic characteristics of these complexes. As stated, within a radius of 400 kilometers, air defense systems are guaranteed to hit almost all aerodynamic targets, including tactical and strategic aviation, warheads ballistic missiles, as well as all types of cruise missiles. It was especially emphasized that Triumph missiles are capable of hitting low-flying targets - moving at an altitude of 5 meters.

And so the Americans provided an opportunity to test the effectiveness of the Russian S-400 in practice. At the same time, the task turned out to be as easy as possible - the Pentagon warned the Russian military in advance about the proposed attacks. Moreover, American destroyers demonstratively fired through the four-hundred-kilometer range of Russian anti-missile systems located in Khmeimim. But as a result, 59 American Tomahawks flew unharmed past the Russian air defense systems deployed in Tartus and Khmeimim without any damage to themselves. In addition, according to the American side, not a single Tomahawk was intercepted.

Didn't want to or couldn't?

Now experts give different reasons why Russia did not shoot down Tomahawk. Military-political arguments are in the foreground - it is obvious that any forceful reaction to American actions would provoke a response, which is why the level of conflict could rise to an unacceptable level high level. If we assume that Russian air defense systems or fighters would have shot down all the American Tomahawks on approach, the Pentagon, according to military logic, should have responded by deploying an arsenal to suppress these air defense systems, and so on in increasing numbers. It is almost impossible to predict where such an escalation might lead, so the silence of the air defense systems in Syria can most easily be explained by Russia’s reluctance to bring the situation to a crisis. nuclear war. An alternative version, that out of 59 only 23 made it, and then in order not to humiliate the United States, we discussed in the last issue in the material “Staged War...”

However, some foreign commentators believe that the destruction of Tomahawk could hardly be a reason for starting a nuclear war, calling these explanations just excuses for the helplessness of Russian air defense systems. As a result, the opinion is growing that the power of Russian air defense systems is in fact a myth and Russian air defense systems are simply not able to shoot down complex targets at all. All these statements come against the backdrop of repeated attempts to discredit Russian air defense systems. Suffice it to recall how the story of the interception by the Arrow-2 missile defense system of a Syrian anti-aircraft guided missile fired at an Israeli aircraft of the Russian-made S-200VE air defense system that happened on March 17 was inflated.

In principle, there is a basis for such a version. According to open data, the S-400 system demonstrates about 90 percent of successful interceptions. True, we are talking about training interception, and not about combat, that is, carried out in sterile conditions with predetermined flight parameters of a projectile simulating an enemy object. In a combat situation, these systems were not used, especially against American cruise missiles, so the effectiveness of their fire on Tomahawk cannot be predicted. And since the conditions in Syria were quite difficult, the interception attempt might not have been 100% successful. As a result, a small percentage of downed missiles could significantly reduce the demand for Russian air defense systems in the world and generally affect the reputation Russian weapons, which are planned to be supplied, including for export. However, the Pentagon, as it turns out, took the capabilities of the Russian air defense system very seriously.

Indirect confirmation of this is the fact that the simultaneous launch of 59 cruise missiles at once was an unprecedented case. Experts also determined that the debris found at the attacked airfield makes it possible to identify the missiles as the most modern Tactical Tomahawk (RGM/UGM-109E Block 4) in the US Navy arsenal, which has the greatest capabilities to overcome air defense systems. Thus, the mere presence of the S-400 complex in Syria played a role and even forced the Americans to adjust their plans.

It is also significant that the missile launches were carried out at the maximum distance from the Syrian coast - the distance to the Shayrat airbase from the missile launch zone was about 1,200 kilometers, and almost the entire Tomahawk flight took place over the sea and only 75–80 kilometers over land. Experts suggest that it was not for nothing that the Americans significantly complicated the flight route of cruise missiles. The Pentagon did not officially report information about their trajectory, but, presumably, Tomahawk from the outside Mediterranean Sea first entered Lebanese airspace, and then moved along the Jordan-Syria border, where there are practically no radars capable of detecting the passage of missiles. Then the missiles turned north and entered the combat course. In this case, the Russian S-300V4 and S-400 were located 200–300 kilometers from the Tomahawk. Why was there no interception?

Anatoly Tsyganok, director of the Center for Military Forecasting:
– Judging by the photographs, 59 missiles definitely did not reach the Shayrat airbase; the destruction in the photo clearly does not correspond to the power of the strike. But what happened to the 36 Tomahawks that didn’t make it remains to be seen. According to some information, 5 rockets fell in the vicinity of Shayrat, killing several civilians and injuring about 20 people. The remaining Tomahawks crashed into the sea, never reaching the shore. The inaccuracy of the hit may be due to the fact that the missiles were aimed using satellite means without additional reconnaissance of the targets. According to another version, many American missiles The shelf life had expired and they were faulty. It is also believed that the targeting devices on most Tomahawks were disabled. external influence and Russian electronic warfare systems may be behind this.
It should also be noted that the US Navy actually carried out Russian air defense a kind of exercise to repel a massive attack of American cruise missiles by Russian air defense systems. Moreover, the cost of this training for the US Navy was about $90 million, approximately the same amount that the American media estimate 59 launched cruise missiles to be. At the same time, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation did not spend a penny on this unique experience. Never before, at any exercises or training grounds, have Russian air defense forces had the opportunity to observe a real massive attack of American Tomahawk cruise missiles, while it was possible to capture them for escort, determine flight parameters, and receive radar signatures of these air attack weapons. If we take into account the fact that at the moment All Russian components of the surveillance system have been deployed in Syria, I have no doubt that the maximum will be extracted from this missile strike vital information. In particular, very useful experience was gained in tracking groups of cruise missiles in a real combat situation, which may prove invaluable in further combat training of troops, as well as in the modernization of radar detection, electronic warfare and anti-aircraft guided missiles.

The military is waiting for Prometheus

As experts explain, the S-300V4 and S-400 cover only the installations of the Russian Armed Forces, and Bashar al-Assad’s troops are responsible for the air defense of Syrian installations. Thus, the Khmeimim air defense systems located in the region, in principle, would not be able to withstand a massive strike, since the distance to the Syrian Shayrat air base is about 100 kilometers. It should be noted that although formally the maximum engagement range of the S-300V4 and S-400 is 400 kilometers, this rule only works if the air target operates at medium and high altitudes, since the S-400 is primarily designed to destroy high-altitude aircraft. targets - airplanes and helicopters. Another thing is cruise missiles that fly at altitudes of 30-50 meters, which makes them difficult to detect because the terrain gets in the way. SAM radars at a great distance do not see missiles, which are very maneuverable and fly below the visibility zone under the cover of the so-called radio horizon. To increase radio visibility, various measures are used - in particular, in air defense systems, the radar is raised on towers. There is such a tower in Khmeimim, but it does not allow increasing the detection range to the required values, so the S-300 and S-400 divisions in Khmeimim and Tartus could simply not notice the distant target. However, experts emphasize, this does not mean at all that Russian air defense systems are not suitable for modern warfare. The fact is that a cruise missile is a very difficult target, and when the launches are sudden and massive, the air defense is powerless. In addition, Russia has deployed too few air defense forces in Syria, and systems such as the S-400 cover a certain and very limited area.

In addition, there is a possibility that some of the systems deployed in Syria are armed with old missiles, which significantly worsens the characteristics of this advanced air defense system. Let us recall that for several years they could not create a new extended-range missile for this system, which would allow achieving the declared tactical and technical characteristics S-400. Recently, official sources made statements that tests of a new long-range missile have been completed. It is currently reported that new rocket is completely ready, but the production speed of missiles for the S-400 and these air defense systems themselves is quite low, and accordingly, the re-equipment of air defense is proceeding at a slow pace.

Against this background, it is worth noting that almost immediately after the American Tomahawk attack, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the imminent adoption of the new S-500 Prometheus anti-aircraft missile system. The military hopes that the new air defense system will be significantly superior to the S-300V4 and S-400 and will reliably prevent massive cruise missile attacks. This complex, according to the developer represented by OJSC Concern VKO Almaz-Antey, represents a new generation of anti-aircraft missile systems"ground-to-air" and is designed to intercept ballistic missiles with a range of up to 3,500 kilometers at medium and close ranges. According to project documentation"Prometheus" is capable of destroying medium-range missiles, operational-tactical missiles, as well as missiles in near space and, thus, will be an element of strategic missile defense. However, as experts note, the timing of its adoption into service is constantly being postponed. It is possible that problems have arisen again with the S-500 missiles, since they have only recently begun to undergo flight tests. However, it should be noted that the American company Lockheed Martin Missiles, commissioned by the Pentagon, has been developing the THAAD (Theater High Altitude Area Defense) mobile long-range interception missile defense system for almost 25 years, but it is still not possible to create a workable system.

Alexander Gorkov, former boss anti-aircraft missile forces Russian Air Force:
– The Tomahawk flight route was carefully planned and lined up to keep the missiles as far as possible from air defense systems and radars, and therefore the route took place outside the zones combat use Russian air defense systems, carefully avoided the fire zones. And this is not surprising - similar tactics, completely eliminating risks, were used in Yugoslavia and earlier in the Middle East. This was, perhaps, a double reinsurance, since the S-400 is capable of detecting cruise missiles only at a line-of-sight range. It is also difficult to say why this was simultaneously applied large number rockets. Since there is no objective control data, it is impossible to say that such a quantity was released to guarantee a breakthrough Russian system Air defense, no reason.
If the Ministry of Defense has information that 36 missiles did not reach the target, I see no reason not to trust it. In any case, such failures are theoretically quite possible and explainable. For example, a equipment failure occurred or data for the guidance program was entered with errors. Before launch, a terrain map is entered into the on-board devices, the flight route is determined, and devices such as a parametric altimeter, which reads the distance relative to the sea surface, and a radio altimeter are on board - the difference between these values indicates the terrain. The Tomahawks flew at extremely low altitudes from 50 to 100 meters, skirting the terrain, which is why any error in data entry or failure in the radio altimeter could lead to the loss of the missile.
In addition, the Americans use an inertial guidance system, when in the final section, to increase the accuracy of hitting a certain target, either a radar or optical guidance head can be triggered - errors are also possible at this stage. Most likely they were used exclusively technical methods missile guidance, satellite data was used, which could also lead to incorrect aiming. Therefore, preparing such operations requires a long time; it is necessary to determine objects and terrain in advance, enter this data and “sew up” them into the program. Moreover, it is not so easy to launch missiles from a destroyer - the coordinates of the destroyer must be verified with surgical precision. If the ship's coordinates are determined incorrectly, this means that the entire route and correction areas will be calculated incorrectly. I think the whole point is that the operation was prepared in a hurry. The order for a massive launch probably came as a surprise even to the command of the 6th Fleet of the US Navy, and American sailors did not have time for thorough preparation.

From 400 Syria. Analytics and comments

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