Greenhouse effect: causes and consequences. Global warming and greenhouse effect

Greenhouse effect – capacity (of gases in the atmosphere) to to a greater extent pass to the surface of the Earth solar radiation compared to the thermal radiation emitted by the Earth heated by the Sun. As a result, the temperature of the Earth's surface and the ground layer of air is higher than it would be in the absence of the greenhouse effect. The average temperature of the Earth's surface is plus 15°C, and without the greenhouse effect it would be minus 18°! The greenhouse effect is one of the life support mechanisms on Earth.

Human activities over the past 200 years, and especially since 1950, have led to a continuing increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The inevitable reaction of the atmosphere that follows is an anthropogenic enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect. Total anthropogenic increase in the greenhouse effect +2.45 watt/m2 ( International Committee on Climate Change IPCC).

The greenhouse effect of each of these gases depends on three main factors:

a) the expected greenhouse effect over the next decades or centuries (for example, 20, 100 or 500 years) caused by a unit volume of gas already released into the atmosphere, compared with the effect from carbon dioxide, taken as a unit;

b) the typical duration of its stay in the atmosphere, and

c) volume of gas emission.

The combination of the first two factors is called “Relative greenhouse potential” and is expressed in units of CO2 potential.

Greenhouse gases:

Role water vapor contained in the atmosphere in the global greenhouse effect is large, but difficult to determine unambiguously. As the climate warms, the content of water vapor in the atmosphere will increase, thereby increasing the greenhouse effect.

D carbon monoxide, or carbon dioxide (CO2) (64% in the greenhouse effect), differs according to

Compared to other greenhouse gases, it has a relatively low greenhouse effect potential, but a fairly significant duration of existence in the atmosphere - 50–200 years and a relatively high concentration. Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during the period from 1000 to 1800. was 270–290 parts per million by volume (ppmv), and by 1994 it had reached 358 ppmv and continues to rise. Can reach 500 ppmv to end of XXI century. Stabilization of concentrations can be achieved through significant reductions in emissions. The main source of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere is the combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) to produce energy.

CO2 sources

(1) Release to the atmosphere due to combustion of fossil fuels and cement production 5.5±0.5

(2) Release into the atmosphere due to the transformation of landscapes in tropical and equatorial zones, soil degradation 1.6±1.0

Absorption by various reservoirs

(3) Accumulation in the atmosphere 3.3±0.2

(4) Accumulation by the World Ocean 2.0±0.8

(5) Accumulation in biomass Northern Hemisphere 0.5±0.5

(6) Residual balance term, explained by the absorption of CO2 by terrestrial ecosystems (fertilization, etc.) = (1+2)-(3+4+5)=1.3±1.5

An increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere should stimulate the process of photosynthesis. This is the so-called fertilization, thanks to which, according to some estimates, products organic matter can increase by 20–40% at twice the current concentration of carbon dioxide.

Methane (CH4) - 19% of its total value greenhouse gases(as of 1995). Methane is produced in anaerobic conditions such as natural swamps different types, thickness of seasonal and permafrost, rice plantations, landfills, as well as as a result of the activity of ruminants and termites. Estimates show that about 20% of total methane emissions are associated with technology for the use of fossil fuels (fuel combustion, emissions from coal mines, extraction and distribution of natural resources).

gas, oil refining). In total, anthropogenic activities provide 60–80% of the total methane emissions into the atmosphere. Methane is unstable in the atmosphere. It is removed from it due to interaction with hydroxyl ion (OH) in the troposphere. Despite this process, the concentration of methane in the atmosphere has approximately doubled compared to pre-industrial times and continues to rise at a rate of about 0.8% per year.

An increase in temperature and an increase in humidity (that is, the duration of the territory being in anaerobic conditions) further enhance methane emissions. This is the character-

good example of positive feedback. On the contrary, a decrease in the level groundwater due to reduced humidity, it should lead to a decrease in methane emissions (negative feedback).

Current role nitric oxide (N2O) in the total greenhouse effect is only about 6%. The concentration of nitrogen oxide in the atmosphere is also increasing. It is assumed that its anthropogenic sources are approximately half the size of natural ones. Sources of anthropogenic nitric oxide are Agriculture(especially tropical grasslands), biomass burning and nitrogen-producing industries. Its relative greenhouse potential (290 times

above the potential of carbon dioxide) and the typical duration of existence in the atmosphere (120 years) are significant, compensating for its low concentration.

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)- these are substances synthesized by humans and containing chlorine, fluorine and bromine. They have a very strong relative greenhouse potential and a significant atmospheric lifespan. Their final role in the greenhouse effect is 7%. The world's production of chlorofluorocarbons is currently controlled international agreements on the protection of the ozone layer, including a provision on a gradual reduction in the production of these substances, replacing them with less ozone-depleting ones, followed by its complete cessation. As a result, the concentration of CFCs in the atmosphere began to decline.

Ozone (O3) is an important greenhouse gas found in both the stratosphere and troposphere. It affects both short-wave and long-wave radiation, and therefore the resulting direction and magnitude of its contribution to the radiation balance strongly depends on the vertical distribution of ozone content, especially at the tropopause level. Estimates indicate a positive resultant of +0.4 watts/m2.

In the last decade, the phrase “greenhouse effect” has practically never left either television screens or the pages of newspapers. Learning programs several disciplines at once provide for its thorough study, and its negative significance for the climate of our planet is almost always indicated. However, this phenomenon is actually much more multifaceted than it is presented to the average person.

Without the greenhouse effect, life on our planet would be in doubt

We can start with the fact that the greenhouse effect has existed on our planet throughout its history. This phenomenon is simply inevitable for those celestial bodies, which, like the Earth, have a stable atmosphere. Without it, for example, the World Ocean would have frozen long ago, and higher forms life would not have appeared at all. Scientists have long scientifically proven that if there were no carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, the presence of which is a necessary component of the process of the greenhouse effect, then the temperature on the planet would fluctuate within -20 0 C, so there would be no talk of the emergence of life at all.

Causes and essence of the greenhouse effect

Answering the question: “What is the greenhouse effect?”, first of all, it should be noted that this physical phenomenon received its name by analogy with the processes that occur in gardeners’ greenhouses. Inside it, regardless of the time of year, it is always several degrees warmer than in the surrounding space. The thing is that plants absorb visible sunlight, which pass absolutely freely through glass, polyethylene, and in general through almost any obstacle. After this, the plants themselves also begin to emit energy, but in the infrared range, the rays of which can no longer freely overcome the same glass, so a greenhouse effect occurs. The reasons for this phenomenon, therefore, lie precisely in the imbalance between the spectrum of visible solar rays and those radiations that are emitted into external environment plants and other items.

The physical basis of the greenhouse effect

As for our planet as a whole, the greenhouse effect here arises due to the presence of a stable atmosphere. To maintain its temperature balance, the Earth must give off as much energy as it receives from the Sun. However, the presence of carbon dioxide and water in the atmosphere, which absorb infrared rays, thus performing the role of glass in a greenhouse, causes the formation of so-called greenhouse gases, some of which return back to the Earth. These gases create a "blanket effect", raising the temperature at the planet's surface.

Greenhouse effect on Venus

From the above we can conclude that the greenhouse effect is characteristic not only of the Earth, but also of all planets and other celestial bodies with a stable atmosphere. Indeed, research conducted by scientists has shown that, for example, near the surface of Venus this phenomenon is much more pronounced, which is due, first of all, to the fact that its air shell consists of almost one hundred percent carbon dioxide.

The greenhouse effect is an increase in the temperature of the earth's surface due to the heating of the lower layers of the atmosphere by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. As a result, the air temperature is higher than it should be, and this leads to irreversible consequences such as climate change and. Several centuries ago this existed, but was not so obvious. With the development of technology, the number of sources that provide the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere increases every year.

Causes of the greenhouse effect

We cannot avoid talking about the environment, its pollution, and the dangers of the greenhouse effect. To understand the mechanism of action of this phenomenon, you need to determine its causes, discuss the consequences and decide how to combat this problem. environmental problem, until it's not too late. The causes of the greenhouse effect are as follows:

• use of combustible minerals in industry - coal, oil, natural gas, when burned, a huge amount of carbon dioxide and other harmful compounds are released into the atmosphere;
• transport – cars and trucks emit exhaust gases, which also pollute the air and increase the greenhouse effect;
• , which absorb carbon dioxide and release oxygen, and with the destruction of every tree on the planet, the amount of CO2 in the air increases;
• – another source of destruction of plants on the planet;
• an increase in population affects the increase in demand for food, clothing, housing, and to ensure this, industrial production is growing, which increasingly pollutes the air with greenhouse gases;
• agrochemicals and fertilizers contain different quantity compounds that, as a result of evaporation, release nitrogen, one of the greenhouse gases;
• The decomposition and burning of waste in landfills contributes to the increase in greenhouse gases.

The influence of the greenhouse effect on climate

Considering the results of the greenhouse effect, we can determine that the main one is climate change. As the air temperature increases every year, the waters of the seas and oceans evaporate more intensely. Some scientists predict that in 200 years the phenomenon of “drying” of the oceans, namely a significant decrease in water levels, will become noticeable. This is one side of the problem. The other is that rising temperatures lead to the melting of glaciers, which contributes to an increase in the water level of the World Ocean, and leads to the flooding of the coasts of continents and islands. The increase in the number of floods and flooding of coastal areas indicates that the level of ocean waters is increasing every year.

An increase in air temperature leads to the fact that areas that receive little moisture precipitation, become arid and unsuitable for life. Crops are destroyed here, which leads to a food crisis for the population of the area. Also, there is no food for the animals, since plants die out due to lack of water.

Many people have already become accustomed to weather and climate conditions throughout their lives. As air temperatures rise due to the greenhouse effect, global warming occurs on the planet. People cannot withstand high temperatures. For example, if previously the average summer temperature was +22-+27, then an increase to +35-+38 leads to sunstroke and heatstroke, dehydration and problems with the cardiovascular system, and there is a high risk of stroke. In case of abnormal heat, experts give people the following recommendations:

• — reduce the number of movements on the street;
• - decrease physical exercise;
• - avoid direct sunlight;
• — increase the consumption of simple purified water to 2-3 liters per day;
• - cover your head from the sun with a hat;
• - If possible, spend time during the day in a cool room.

How to minimize the greenhouse effect

Knowing how greenhouse gases arise, it is necessary to eliminate their sources in order to stop global warming and other Negative consequences greenhouse effect. Even one person can change something, and if relatives, friends, and acquaintances join him, they will set an example for other people. This is already much large quantity conscious inhabitants of the planet who will direct their actions to preserve the environment.

First of all, we need to stop deforestation and plant new trees and shrubs, as they absorb carbon dioxide and produce oxygen. By using electric vehicles, the amount of exhaust gases will be reduced. In addition, you can switch from cars to bicycles, which is more convenient, cheaper and better for the environment. Alternative fuels are also being developed, which, unfortunately, are slowly being introduced into our daily lives.

An entertaining video about the greenhouse effect

The most important decision The problem of the greenhouse effect is to attract the attention of the world community to it, as well as to do everything in our power to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas accumulation. If you plant a few trees, you will already be of great help to our planet.

The impact of the greenhouse effect on human health

The primary consequences of the greenhouse effect are on the climate and the environment, but no less detrimental is its impact on human health. It's like a time bomb: many years later we will be able to see the consequences, but we will not be able to change anything.

Scientists predict that people with low and unstable financial situation. If people eat poorly and do not receive certain food products due to lack of money, this will lead to malnutrition, hunger and the development of diseases (not only the gastrointestinal tract system). Since the greenhouse effect causes abnormal heat in summer, the number of people with diseases increases every year of cardio-vascular system. This is how people’s blood pressure increases or decreases, heart attacks and epilepsy attacks occur, fainting and heat strokes occur.

An increase in air temperature leads to the development of the following diseases and epidemics:

These diseases spread very quickly geographically because heat The atmosphere contributes to the movement of various infections and disease vectors. These are various animals and insects, such as Tsetse flies, encephalitis ticks, malaria mosquitoes, birds, mice, etc. From warm latitudes, these carriers move to the north, so people living there are exposed to diseases because they do not have immunity to them.

Thus, the greenhouse effect causes global warming, and this leads to many ailments and infectious diseases. Thousands of people die as a result of epidemics different countries peace. By combating the problem of global warming and the greenhouse effect, we will be able to improve the environment and, as a result, people’s health.

The average surface temperature of the Earth (or another planet) increases due to the presence of its atmosphere.

Gardeners are well aware of this physical phenomenon. The inside of the greenhouse is always warmer than the outside, and this helps to grow plants, especially in the cold season. You may feel a similar effect when you are in a car. The reason for this is that the Sun, with a surface temperature of about 5000°C, emits mainly visible light- part of the electromagnetic spectrum to which our eyes are sensitive. Since the atmosphere is largely transparent to visible light, solar radiation easily penetrates to the surface of the Earth. Glass is also transparent to visible light, so Sun rays pass inside the greenhouse, and their energy is absorbed by plants and all objects located inside. Further, according to the Stefan-Boltzmann law, every object emits energy in some part of the electromagnetic spectrum. Objects with a temperature of about 15°C - the average temperature at the Earth's surface - emit energy in the infrared range. Thus, objects in a greenhouse emit infrared radiation. However, infrared radiation cannot easily pass through glass, so the temperature inside the greenhouse rises.

A planet with a stable atmosphere, such as Earth, experiences much the same effect—on a global scale. To maintain a constant temperature, the Earth itself needs to emit as much energy as it absorbs from the visible light emitted towards us by the Sun. The atmosphere serves as glass in a greenhouse - it is not as transparent to infrared radiation as it is to sunlight. Molecules various substances in the atmosphere (the most important of them are carbon dioxide and water) absorb infrared radiation, acting as greenhouse gases. Thus, infrared photons emitted by the earth's surface do not always go directly into space. Some of them are absorbed by greenhouse gas molecules in the atmosphere. When these molecules re-radiate the energy they have absorbed, they can radiate it both outward into space and inward, back toward the Earth's surface. The presence of such gases in the atmosphere creates the effect of covering the Earth with a blanket. They cannot stop heat from escaping outward, but they do allow heat to remain near the surface for more for a long time, so the Earth's surface is much warmer than it would be in the absence of gases. No atmosphere average temperature surface would be -20°C, which is much below the freezing point of water.

It is important to understand that the greenhouse effect has always existed on Earth. Without the greenhouse effect caused by the presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the oceans would have frozen long ago and higher forms of life would not have appeared. Currently, the scientific debate about the greenhouse effect is on the issue global warming: Are we, humans, disturbing the energy balance of the planet too much as a result of burning fossil fuels and so on? economic activity while adding too much carbon dioxide to the atmosphere? Today, scientists agree that we are responsible for increasing the natural greenhouse effect by several degrees.

The greenhouse effect does not only occur on Earth. In fact, the strongest greenhouse effect we know of is on our neighboring planet, Venus. The atmosphere of Venus consists almost entirely of carbon dioxide, and as a result the surface of the planet is heated to 475 ° C. Climatologists believe that we have avoided such a fate thanks to the presence of oceans on Earth. The oceans absorb atmospheric carbon and it accumulates in rocks, such as limestone - through this, carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere. There are no oceans on Venus, and all the carbon dioxide that volcanoes emit into the atmosphere remains there. As a result, we observe on Venus ungovernable Greenhouse effect.

Modern civilization has a strong influence on nature. As a rule, negative. draining swamps and the constant release of huge amounts of harmful substances into the atmospheric air - this is far from full list"virtues" of humanity. Many people believe that the greenhouse effect also belongs to this category. Is this really true?

Historical reference

By the way, who was the author of the greenhouse effect (that is, the one who discovered this phenomenon)? Who first described this process and spoke about its influence on environment? A similar idea appeared back in 1827. The author of the scientific article was Joseph Fourier. In his work, he described the mechanisms of climate formation on our planet.

The unusualness of this work for that time was that Fourier considered temperature and climatic features different belts Earth. This is who the author of the greenhouse effect was, who was first able to explain Saussure's experience.

Saussure's experiment

To verify his conclusions, the scientist used the experiment of M. de Saussure, which uses a vessel coated on the inside with soot, the neck of which is closed with glass. De Saussure conducted an experiment in which he constantly measured the temperature inside and outside the jar. Of course, it constantly increased precisely in the internal volume. Fourier was for the first time able to explain this phenomenon by the combined action of two factors at once: blocking heat transfer and different permeability of the walls of the vessel for light rays with different lengths waves.

Its mechanism is quite simple: when heated, the surface temperature increases, visible light is absorbed, and heat begins to be emitted. Since the material perfectly transmits visible light, but practically does not conduct heat, the latter accumulates in the internal volume of the vessel. As you can see, the mechanism of the greenhouse effect can easily be substantiated by every person who studied a standard physics course at school. The phenomenon is quite simple, but how much trouble it brings to our planet!

Origin of the term

It is worth knowing that Joseph Fourier is the author of the greenhouse effect in terms of its initial description in the literature. But who came up with the term itself? Alas, we will probably never get an answer to this question. In later literature, the phenomenon that was discovered by Fourier received its modern name. Today every ecologist knows the term “greenhouse effect”.

But Fourier’s main discovery was the substantiation of the actual identity of the Earth’s atmosphere and ordinary glass. Simply put, the atmosphere of our planet is perfectly permeable to visible light radiation, but it does not transmit it well in the infrared range. Having accumulated heat, the Earth practically does not release it. This is who the author of the greenhouse effect was. But why does this effect occur?

Yes, we described the primitive mechanism of its appearance, but modern science was able to prove that under normal conditions, IR rays can still quite freely travel beyond the planetary atmosphere. How is it that natural mechanisms for regulating the “heating season” fail?

Causes

In general, we described them in sufficient detail at the very beginning of our article. The following factors contribute to the occurrence of this phenomenon:

• Constant and excessive burning of fossil fuels.
• Every year, increasing volumes of industrial gases enter the planet’s atmosphere.
• Forests are constantly being cut down, their areas are shrinking due to fires and soil degradation.
• Anaerobic fermentation, release of methane from the bottom of the oceans.

You should know that the main “culprits” that trigger the greenhouse effect are the following five gases:

• Divalent carbon monoxide, also known as carbon dioxide. The greenhouse effect is 50% ensured precisely due to it.
• Carbon compounds of chlorine and fluorine (25%).
• (8%). Toxic gas, a typical waste product from poorly equipped chemical and metallurgical industries.
• Ground-level ozone (7%). Despite its critical role in protecting the Earth from excess ultraviolet radiation, can help retain heat on its surface.
• Approximately 10% methane.

Where do these gases enter the atmosphere from? What is their effect?

- It is this substance that enters the atmosphere in large quantities when people burn fossil fuels. Approximately a third of its excess (above natural) level is due to the fact that humans are intensively destroying forests. The same function is performed by the constantly accelerating process of desertification of fertile lands.

All this means less vegetation that can effectively absorb carbon dioxide, which in many ways drives the greenhouse effect. The causes and consequences of this phenomenon are interrelated: every year the volume of divalent carbon monoxide emitted into the atmosphere increases by approximately 0.5%, which stimulates both the further accumulation of excess heat and the processes of degradation of vegetation on the surface of the planet.

- Chlorofluorocarbons. As we have already said, these compounds provide 25% of the greenhouse effect. The causes and consequences of this phenomenon have been studied for quite a long time. They appear in the atmosphere due to industrial production, especially outdated ones. Dangerous and toxic refrigerants contain these substances in huge quantities, and measures to prevent their leaks clearly do not give the expected result. The consequences of their appearance are even worse:

• Firstly, they are extremely toxic to humans and animals, and for flora, proximity to fluorine and chlorine compounds is not very beneficial.
• Secondly, these substances can significantly accelerate the development of the greenhouse effect.
• Thirdly, they destroy which protects our planet from aggressive ultraviolet radiation.

- Methane. One of the most important gases, the increased content of which in the atmosphere implies the term “greenhouse effect”. You need to know that for just a hundred recent years its volume in the planet's atmosphere doubled. In principle, the bulk of it comes from completely natural sources:

• in Asia.
• Livestock complexes.
• Systems for treating domestic wastewater in large settlements.
• When organic matter rots and decomposes in the depths of swamps, in landfills.

There is evidence that significant amounts of methane are released from the depths of the World Ocean. Perhaps this phenomenon is explained by the activity of large colonies of bacteria, for which methane is the main metabolic by-product.

It is necessary to especially emphasize the “contribution” to the development of the greenhouse effect from oil production enterprises: a considerable amount of this gas is released into the atmosphere as a by-product. In addition, the constantly expanding film of petroleum products on the surface of the World Ocean also contributes to the accelerated decomposition of organic matter, which is accompanied by methane emissions.

- Nitric oxide. Formed in large volumes during many processes chemical production. He is dangerous not only active participation in the greenhouse mechanism. The fact is that when combined with atmospheric water, this substance forms a real nitric acid, even if in low concentration. This is where everything that has an extremely negative impact on people’s health comes from.

Theoretical scenarios of global climate disturbances

So what are global consequences greenhouse effect? It is difficult to say about this for sure, since scientists are still far from a clear conclusion. Currently, there are several scenarios. For development computer models many are taken into account various factors, which can accelerate or slow down the development of the greenhouse effect. Let's look at the catalysts for this process:

• The release of the gases described above due to human anthropogenic activities.
• CO 2 release due to thermal decomposition of natural hydrocarbonates. It is interesting to know that the crust of our planet contains 50,000 times more carbon dioxide than in the air. Of course, we're talking about about chemically bound carbon monoxide.
• Since the main consequences of the greenhouse effect are an increase in the temperature of water and air on the surface of the planet, the evaporation of moisture from the surface of the seas and oceans increases. As a consequence, the permeability of the atmosphere to infrared radiation deteriorates even more.
• The oceans contain about 140 trillion tons of carbon dioxide, which, as water temperatures rise, also begins to be intensively released into the atmosphere, contributing to a more dynamic development of the greenhouse process.
• A decrease in the reflectivity of the planet, which leads to accelerated accumulation of heat in its atmosphere. Desertification of lands also contributes to this.

What factors slow down the development of the greenhouse effect?

It is assumed that the main warm current- The Gulf Stream is constantly slowing down. In the long term, this will cause a significant decrease in temperature, which will slow down the effect of greenhouse gas accumulation. In addition, for every degree of general warming, the cloud area over the entire territory of the planet increases by approximately 0.5%, which contributes to a significant reduction in the amount of heat that the Earth receives from space.

Please note: the essence of the greenhouse effect is to increase the overall temperature earth's surface. Of course, there is nothing good about this, but it is the above factors that often help mitigate the consequences of this phenomenon. In principle, this is why many scientists believe that the topic of global warming itself belongs to the category of completely natural phenomena that have occurred regularly throughout the history of the Earth.

The higher the evaporation rate, the greater the annual precipitation becomes. This causes both the restoration of swamps and the accelerated growth of flora, which is responsible for recycling excess carbon dioxide in the planet’s atmosphere. It is also expected that increased precipitation will in the future contribute to a significant expansion of the area of ​​shallow tropical seas.

The corals that live in them are the most important utilizers of carbon dioxide. Being chemically bound, it goes to build their skeleton. Finally, if humanity reduces the rate of deforestation at least a little, then their area will recover quite quickly, since the same carbon dioxide is an excellent stimulant for the spread of plants. So what are possible consequences greenhouse effect?

Main scenarios for the future of our planet

In the first case, scientists assume that global warming will occur quite slowly. And this point of view has many supporters. They believe that the World Ocean, which is a giant energy accumulator, will be able to absorb excess heat for a long time. It may take several millennia before the climate on the planet really changes radically.

The second group of scientists, on the contrary, advocates a relatively rapid version of catastrophic changes. This problem of the greenhouse effect is currently very popular; it is discussed at almost every scientific congress. Unfortunately, there is enough evidence for this theory. It is believed that over the past hundred years, the concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by at least 20-24%, and the amount of methane in the atmosphere has increased by 100%. In the most pessimistic version, it is believed that the planet’s temperature by the end of this century may well increase by a record 6.4°C.

Thus, in this case, the greenhouse effect in the Earth’s atmosphere will simply cause mortal trouble to all residents of coastal areas.

A sharp increase in sea level

The point is that similar temperature anomalies are fraught with an extremely sharp and almost unpredictable rise in the level of the World Ocean. So, from 1995 to 2005. this figure was 4 cm, although scientists vying with each other declared that one should not expect a rise above a couple of centimeters. If everything continues at the same pace, then by the end of the 21st century the level of the World Ocean will be at least 88-100 cm higher modern norm. Meanwhile, about 100 million people on our planet live exactly at 87-88 cm above sea level.

Decreased reflectivity of the planet's surface

When we wrote about what the greenhouse effect is, the article repeatedly mentioned that it stimulates a further decrease in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface, which is facilitated by deforestation and desertification.

Many scientists indicate that the ice cap at the poles may reduce general temperature planet by at least two degrees, and the ice that covers the surface of polar waters greatly slows down the process of emission of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. In addition, in the polar region ice caps There is no water vapor at all, which significantly stimulates the global greenhouse effect.

All this will affect the global water cycle so much that the frequency of tornadoes, monstrous in their destructive force hurricanes and tornadoes will increase several times, which will make it virtually impossible for people to live even in those territories that are very remote from the ocean coasts. Unfortunately, redistribution of water will lead to the opposite phenomenon. Droughts are a 10% problem today globe, and in the future the number of such regions may well increase immediately to 35-40%. This is a sad prospect for humanity.

For our country, the forecast in this case is much more favorable. Climatologists believe that most of Russia’s territory will be quite suitable for normal farming, and the climate will become much milder. Of course, most of the coastal areas (and we have a lot of them) will simply be flooded.

The third scenario assumes that short period rising temperatures will be replaced by global cooling. We have already talked about the slowdown of the Gulf Stream and the consequences. Imagine that this warm current will completely stop... Of course, it won’t come to the events described in the film “The Day After Tomorrow”, but the planet will definitely become much colder. Not for long, however.

Some mathematicians adhere to the theory (modeled, of course) according to which the greenhouse effect on Earth will lead to the fact that for 20-30 years the climate in Europe will become no warmer than in our country. They also assume that after this the warming will continue, the scenario of which is described in the second option.

Conclusion

Be that as it may, there is not much good in the scientists’ forecasts. We can only hope that our planet is a more complex and perfect mechanism than we imagine. Perhaps such sad consequences can be avoided.