Why is the summer cold? Plans washed away by rain

Employees of the Arctic Hydrometeorology Laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, together with foreign colleagues, studied the processes of area reduction sea ​​ice Arctic Ocean and predicted their climate consequences. Weather anomalies, in particular cold and rainy summer 2017 on the European territory of Russia are most likely a consequence of a reduction in the area of ​​ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. The research was supported by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (RSF). The results of the work were published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

The processes of melting Arctic ice have accelerated significantly these days. Over the past decade, sea ice extent (estimated at the end of summer period) decreased by approximately 40%. Disappearance arctic ice is fraught with serious environmental consequences, in particular by extinction rare species animals. On the other hand, the release of the waters of the Arctic Ocean from under the ice opens up new opportunities for the development of mineral resources on the Arctic shelves, expands the industrial fishing zone, and improves conditions for navigation.

Employees of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, together with colleagues, studied the processes of ice melting in the Atlantic part of the Arctic Ocean and described the consequences of these processes for the entire Arctic region. As a result of the work, a holistic picture of hydrometeorological changes in the Arctic was obtained. Warm ocean currents bring heated water from Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Basin and the Barents Sea, ensuring accelerated melting of ice. Ice-free water areas effectively absorb solar energy and quickly warm up, releasing excess heat and moisture into the atmosphere. Air currents and large storms then redistribute heat and moisture throughout almost the entire Arctic, leading to changes in the energy balance between the ocean and the atmosphere. In particular, scientists have found that downward long-wave radiation (LDW) increases significantly. This is infrared (thermal) radiation, emitted primarily by water vapor and clouds and directed towards earth's surface. Increasing LDI contributes to the warming and melting of Arctic sea ice.

Blue-violet contours show isolines of sea ice concentration in winter season for the period from 1979 to 2017 (dark blue indicates the lowest concentration). Red arrows represent the direction of propagation of Atlantic water. The thin black and red lines show the position of the concentration of 20 percent of the ice supply in March 1979-2004 and in 2012, respectively.

Russian scientists paid attention to significant influence major storms and regime atmospheric circulation on the condition of the ice cover. For example, Storm Frank, which occurred in December 2015, brought anomalous high temperature(deviation from the average climatic temperature was 16°C), and the NDI flux was significant (compared to the climatic norm). As a result, the decrease in ice thickness in some regions of the Arctic Ocean has reached 10 centimeters.

Scientists received data on the area of ​​sea ice from satellites, and the fields of distributions of temperature, pressure, humidity and radiation from the so-called reanalysis product (ERA-Interim). Reanalysis is computer model, which assimilates long-term observational data (radiosonde, aviation, etc.) for different characteristics atmosphere.

"New knowledge obtained as a result of our work allows us to more accurately analyze the causes and consequences of the processes occurring in the Northern Arctic Ocean. If a sufficiently large area of ​​the Arctic is not covered with ice, intrusions of cold and humid air to the European territory of Russia. IN lately This situation is observed more and more often and becomes the reason weather anomalies, such as the atypically cold summer of 2017,” said the head of the Arctic Hydrometeorology Laboratory, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Vladimir Vladimirovich Ivanov.

Meteorologists need to develop new algorithms that include information about the natural processes occurring in the Arctic. This will make weather forecasts more reliable and take into account current climate changes.

xl" target="_blank">abnormally cold summer. As always in such cases, everything is blamed global warming. A RIAMO correspondent talked to experts and found out what is really going on with the climate in Moscow and the Moscow region.

Read what the weather will be like this weekend>>

The Ghost of Global Warming

The term “global warming” itself appeared back in 1975: it was mentioned by Wallace Broecker in an article devoted to trends in climate change as a result of the influence of man-made factors. These trends are continually monitored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And the Kyoto Protocol, signed at a UN conference in 1997, is designed to minimize emissions greenhouse gases participating countries. Therefore, on the one hand, climate change on Earth is under international control.

On the other hand, global climate processes raise questions among ordinary inhabitants of the planet, and in particular, the Moscow region. If there is global warming in the world, then why is the beginning of summer in the capital region so cold?

However, experts say that climate is not an area where it is worth making superficial conclusions, despite obvious changes.

The head of the situation center of Roshydromet, Yuri Varakin, emphasizes: in order to confirm or refute that certain changes are occurring in the climate, it is necessary to monitor the situation for years, and the climate “step” is thirty years. Based on observational data over thirty years, statistical indicators are displayed: averages for a day or for a specific date, average daily temperature or maximum temperature, which was observed for thirty years, etc.

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Moscow and Moscow region - in the comfort zone

Moscow and the Moscow region are prosperous regions compared to those places where there are fires, droughts or heavy rains with floods right now.

“We don’t have the same natural disasters as in Central and South Asia. Every year, thousands of people die from floods, not because a tree fell on their head, but because their houses are demolished as a result of a tropical downpour. Now there is an abnormal heat in Japan: several children have died from heatstroke, hundreds of people with overheating are in hospitals,” says Yuri Varakin.

However, the cold with which this summer began can be explained by the same global processes, as the riots of the elements in other places on the planet.

According to research by the Hydrometeorological Center, the reason for the recurrence of very cold and hot periods, dry and rainy periods is that the temperature on the planet is rising unevenly.

“In equatorial areas, warming is less noticeable than at the poles, and as a result, the temperature difference between them is decreasing. This temperature difference between the equator and the pole is the basis for the occurrence of circulation in the atmosphere,” explains Roman Vilfand, director of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center.

According to weather forecasters, processes in the atmosphere are slowing down.

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Human factor

However, all climatic anomalies and natural disasters What has recently been happening in Russia, in addition to global ones, there are quite local reasons.

Pollution of rivers, silting of reservoirs, huge garbage dumps - all this contributes to making the consequences of the rampant disaster more severe. Experts believe that sometimes the precipitation itself is not as terrible as its consequences due to purely economic problems and the human factor.

He adds that in a metropolis, where heating mains and communications run under the asphalt, trees cannot live for more than 60-70 years, their root system is destroyed and the tree dries out.

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Myth long-term forecasts

Forecasters say that forecasts should always be made with great caution: the longer the forecast period, the less reliable it is. Seven to ten days is the maximum period, and on the extreme dates the probability of error increases significantly.

Despite this, the Hydrometeorological Center has a special department for long-term weather forecasts, which compiles data for the season, but its method of work is based on statistical modeling for the analogous year.

“Suppose we need to develop a forecast for two months: they take the results of observations at a given point six months ago and, based on certain characteristics, look for what is called an “analogue year.” That is, they are looking for a year in which, like ours now, February was very cold, and March and April were above the climate temperature norm. Then they look at what August was like that year, for example. And based on this, they predict what this August will be like. But this does not take into account what August or March-April was like on another continent or in southern hemisphere. It is quite possible that these things affect our climate too. Therefore, such models are scientific, but they are not enough for us yet,” says Alexander Sinenkov, forecaster on duty at the Phobos weather center.

Be that as it may, according to Andrei Skvortsov, residents of the Moscow region can still hope for good weather in the near future.

“In the next week we will have about the same as now, up to plus 18-22 degrees, sometimes rain, sometimes sunny. The cyclone is standing - it will turn on its cold side, then on its warm side. But towards the end of next week this structure may collapse - and warmth will come to us,” the expert notes.

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Some people identified the white substance falling from the sky in the Moscow region on the second day of calendar summer as hail, others as snow. Rather, in different areas there was both. "Reedus" tried to find out what this phenomenon is and why this outrage occurs in the first month of summer.

There’s nothing special about the weather this year, you just have to keep it in mind weather conditions last years, leading meteorologist of Gismeteo Leonid Starkov stands up for nature.

“In 2016, similar weather - with snow pellets - was observed on June 6-7. And the daytime temperature then did not rise above +9. Typically, such an intermediate state of precipitation between snow and hail is typical for periods of sharp cooling during the warm period. But this year there has not yet been a stable warm period as such - average temperature May was only +10.9 degrees, this is the coldest May in the last 16 years,” he told Reedus.

Previously, the same cold Mays were observed in 2001 and 2008, but then average monthly temperature slightly exceeded 11 degrees.

Judging by the footage of the film “Cold Summer of '53”, the weather in Moscow at that time was also not beachy.

If you raise the observation diaries even more early periods, then in 1999 the average May temperature was 8.7 degrees. Therefore, the current “ green winter“Meteorologists are neither surprised nor frightened.

“In fact, if we’re going to worry, it should be done not because summer will be little different from winter, but because of the possibility of a repeat of the summer of 2010, when Russia burned throughout summer months. All the seven years that have passed since that drought in the media are only frightening that now every summer will be like this. But it’s been a cold summer - the media are again whipping up panic,” Starkov frowns.

On June 9, the daytime temperature in the capital should rise to 25-30 degrees, and we can confidently predict that the media will start talking about “global warming.”

The summer of 2017 has just begun, but many are already predicting that there will hardly be a break from the rains. We learned from climatologist Andrei Kiselev and leading specialist at the FOBOS weather center Alexander Sinenkov what is happening with the Moscow climate, whether we should expect warming at least in September and whether the weather will be pleasant this weekend.

RIA Novosti / Kirill Kallinikov

The long-awaited summer of 2017 is by no means pleasing to residents and guests of the Moscow region. Walks around the city and trips into nature are becoming a real rarity, and leaving the house without an umbrella is almost impossible. And the June snow, abnormally warm March and 30-degree heat in early May came as a complete surprise. Moreover, the weather began to change even earlier - in the fall, when the average temperature in November approached December values.

Climatologist Andrei Kiselev helped the 360 ​​TV channel figure out what is happening with the summer and whether it is worth waiting for it at all.

- What happened to the summer? Why have there been such drastic changes in weather conditions?

The situation when one year is different from the next is quite ordinary. Therefore, it is generally impossible to say that this is something out of the ordinary. Climate is assessed over a 30-year period and during these years there may be different seasons: dry and rainy, cold and warm. The air comes to us from the Atlantic; our territory is flat. Therefore there is no resistance, since there are no mountains. These air masses come from the Atlantic and from time to time begin to compete with air coming from outside the Arctic and then appears cold weather. Apparently, this is exactly the situation now.

The summer of 2017 has so far only taken place for 1/6 of its time. Therefore, it is still incorrect to characterize the entire summer. What will happen next - no one can predict if we're talking about about the summer, and not the next five or six days. It is anomalous because we are simply not used to it - purely psychologically. From a statistical point of view, it can be quite mediocre.

- And if we talk about a 30-year period, can it be called mediocre?

The fact is that the climate is now compared with 1960-1990. When it passes, we will have moved forward 30 years - from 1991 to 2020. The fact is that if a single year falls out, it will affect the 30-year period if there are quite a lot of such missing years. If there are 1-2 of them, then they, in a sense, are neutralized by other years, which will turn out to be quite warm or simply average. Therefore, this “anomalous phenomenon” may simply be a freak of nature.

They say that if the summer is cold, it means that the cycle has shifted a little and the warmth will come, but later. Is this really true or just fiction?

It cannot be confirmed. The stability of the temperature for a particular territory suggests that if some excess has occurred, then there is a possibility that in the following months they can somehow compensate for it. But sometimes this may not be the case - remember the summer of 2010, when the weather was very hot.

The summer of 2017 nevertheless decided to rehabilitate itself and reward the residents of the Moscow region for the past rainy week - the sun will finally appear on the weekend. Next week is expected to be warm, but again rainy weather- said leading specialist of the Phobos weather center Alexander Sinenkov.

According to him, on the first day of the weekend it will become a little warmer in the capital's metropolis, but the average daily air temperature will still be below the climate norm due to convective instability of the atmosphere. There will be short-term rain locally in the first and second half of the day.

“We expect partly cloudy weather in the Moscow region, intermittent rain in places in the afternoon, temperature on Saturday night: +9...+11 degrees, in the region - +8...+13. During the day in Moscow +18...+20 degrees are expected, in the region - +17...+22. North-west wind, atmospheric pressure no changes - 742 millimeters mercury"- said Sinenkov.

On Sunday, the atmospheric pressure will increase, and the weather in Moscow will be influenced by an anticyclone from the west. The average daily temperature will correspond to the norm: in the capital it will warm up to +22...+24, in the Moscow region - up to +20...+25 degrees. The chance of scattered rain will continue.

On the next working week we do not expect significant changes. The weather pattern will continue to be determined by humid climatic air masses that will come from the west and northwest. This means that mostly cloudy weather awaits residents of the Moscow region and guests of the capital. It will rain from time to time, and the temperature during the daytime will be between +18...+23 degrees. At night the thermometer will approach +10 degrees

Alexander Sinenkov.