Tests of the DPRK hydrogen. North Korea successfully tests a hydrogen bomb

On September 3, North Korea conducted its sixth full-fledged nuclear test. About the fact that it could be blown up, however, the North Koreans would not be themselves if they had not prepared a lot of surprises this time. An expert on the website of the Zvezda TV channel, Vladimir Khrustalev, examines in detail the nuclear test of North Korea. Sunday morning shock On Sunday morning, even before the test took place, the North Korean media stunned the world with a sensation. The main news agency of the DPRK published photographs showing a thermonuclear charge. And not just a thermonuclear charge, but one suitable for installation on a ballistic missile. Primarily named as a launch vehicle intercontinental missile"Hwaseong-14". This was indicated by photographs where a diagram for installing a charge in the head of a ballistic missile was visible, and the caption above the diagram also indicated the type of carrier. Most likely, the photo showed a mock-up of the device, and not the device itself, since some of the details in the photographs high quality looked strange for a real charge. And, on the other hand, a loaded thermonuclear charge as part of the structure has a number of elements that require, due to safety precautions, caution and access to the charge only by specialists. We are talking about the possible presence of a plutonium part in the assembled structure (plutonium creates a noticeable level ionizing radiation), deuterium-tritium gas mixture(tritium is also not particularly good for health), as well as the mandatory presence of a system for detonating the nuclear unit of the structure. The composition of the nuclear unit also necessarily includes a layer of conventional explosive and a system for detonating it. In other words, this part requires careful handling, even if radioactive materials are not placed in the structure. The device itself, which received the name “peanut” among Western experts because of its shape, and “dumbbell” among Russians, really looks like a thermonuclear charge. It clearly shows the external automation unit, connected by cables to the main part, which includes the nuclear (the one that makes up the larger half of the “dumbbell”) and thermonuclear nodes (the “smaller” half). The activation of the first creates conditions for the operation of the second with a large release of energy. No one except the developers knows what is inside the device itself. And the point here is not that the design is strange or that the experts remain silent. Everything is simpler: there are several workable versions of the device shown. What is even more interesting: official materials reported that the device has more than one operation mode. That is, at reduced and at rated power. There are different options solution to this problem, but the main thing is that, in general, there is nothing supernatural in creating a device with two operation modes.
Of course, like any announcement from the DPRK, this “leak of information” gave rise to fierce debate on the topic of how realistic this demonstration is and when to expect tests. Among intelligent experts (those whose forecasts regarding military programs usually came true) a consensus emerged in the very first hours: “If the North Koreans have succeeded in working on thermonuclear charges, there must be a successful test.” Moreover, the key feature should be an abnormal power compared to past tests. Since the end of 2016, attempts have been made to guess what a thermonuclear breakthrough by the DPRK would look like for external observers. The answer was simple. The observed magnitude of the test will be 5.7 conventional units or greater. And if it’s 6 or more, then it’s definitely something thermonuclear. In general, everyone began to wait for the test, but no one expected that it would happen a few hours after the announcement of photographs of the thermonuclear charge. Nuclear "seismic event" Sunday's test was an immediate shock. From the USA and China, reports began to come in about the maximum measured power of the tremors at the level of 6.3 conventional units. Other countries have measured tremors ranging from 5.7 to 6.3. According to reports from some seismic stations, they observed a seismic event in the DPRK with a parameter of 6.4 conventional units. Such a strong difference is normal. The fact is that the lithosphere is a less homogeneous medium than the hydrosphere, so vibrations propagate differently, and therefore different directions and at different distances there will be certain differences in the received signals.
The second problem is that, depending on the depth, even at the same test site, an explosion of the same power (in TNT equivalent) will also produce “seismic events” of different recorded power. The third problem is that only the North Koreans know the power of the explosion quite accurately specialists. Since the conversion of measured seismic parameters into kilotons of TNT largely depends on what correction factors are used for calculations. But this does not mean that nothing can be said about this. First, a significant fact should be noted: the lowest theoretical limit on the explosion power is not below 50 kt. Moreover, this is clearly with all permissible theoretical underestimations. They insist on a figure of 50 kt in South Korea. But Seoul's estimates always show signs of deliberate severe underestimation. Yes, and they are made on the basis of signals less powerful than those recorded in other directions from the DPRK nuclear test site (geological features). Secondly, most open estimates by independent experts give the most probable figure of 100 kt and higher. So the Norwegian NORSAR gave an estimate of 120 kt, Chinese geologists - 108 kt. Among American experts, the interval of 100-150 kt is considered the most reliable.
Thirdly, there is an indirect sign. Seismic echoes were noticeably felt not only in China. In other countries closest to North Korea, at a time roughly coinciding with the explosion in the DPRK, users began writing on social networks that they felt a slight vibration in the house. Of course, many did not feel or notice anything, because the force of the vibrations was not so great (the type of soil on which the building or the observer was located directly plays a serious role here), but still there are witnesses to this phenomenon. The distance at which the echoes were observed from an explosion, indicates the approximate level of energy release during an explosion. This is definitely a different order of power than in all previous tests. What does a nuclear test mean for North Korea? First of all, we can confidently talk about the enormous success of the DPRK military-industrial complex. North Korean nuclear scientists have managed to radically improve the quality parameters of their charges, both in terms of increasing the achieved power by an order of magnitude, and in terms of the power per unit weight of the charge. Secondly, this means radically different possibilities for causing damage to the aggressor during retaliatory nuclear missile strikes. Bombs of “Hiroshima power” do not look as menacing to modern cities as they did decades ago. But thermonuclear charges, with their power, are capable of quite confidently causing enormous destruction over long distances in modern large cities, built mainly from reinforced concrete. This means that in order to cause obviously unacceptable damage, it is necessary that fewer charges break through the missile defense system than with an order of magnitude lower power of warheads. And the presence of such an enemy’s ability to cause damage usually greatly reduces the desire to attack him.
Thirdly, thermonuclear charges are the best (possible) generators of electromagnetic pulse. Detonation of a thermonuclear charge at a suitable height can cause damage to electrical and electronic equipment over an area of ​​a million square kilometers or more. At the same time, direct damage to people shock wave and no light emission occurs. Sort of the opposite of the neutron bomb from urban legends, which supposedly kills people by preserving material assets. Only here the infrastructure, communications, machines and equipment are turned off. But people are not amazed. And this does not count the damage to the orbital group. An ideal weapon against advanced opponents, especially the most technologically advanced, completely immersed in the “digital era.” Moreover, to detonate a charge at altitudes of 100 km and above, it is not necessary to have even proven warheads capable of surviving all overloads when descending in the atmosphere. The corresponding explosion is carried out outside the atmosphere. This possibility was mentioned in materials published shortly before the test. “Our thermonuclear charge, the power of which can be adjusted from tens of kilotons to hundreds of kilotons, not only has a huge destructive force, but is also a multifunctional thermonuclear warhead, which can also deliver a super-powerful electromagnetic strike over vast distances by detonating a charge at a high altitude,” wrote the North Korean media.
Fourthly, the presence of such an option as choosing the power of the explosion creates high possibilities for choosing different targets for the optimal format of destruction with the same warhead “for the task.” This means that in the future it will greatly increase the flexibility of the nuclear arsenal. This was directly stated in the corresponding statement following the test results. “Success in testing a thermonuclear charge for equipping ICBMs is a demonstration of the qualitative development of nuclear forces, when it is possible to freely control the power of a thermonuclear charge depending on the object and target of the strike. This is a very significant milestone in the improvement of nuclear armed forces,” wrote the North Korean press. Fifthly, for the creation of effective intercontinental nuclear missile weapons, a compact and powerful thermonuclear unit is critical important stage. North Korea has already successfully tested the Hwasong-14 missile twice in July. And now the fusion unit has also been tested. This test was carried out to confirm the operation and reliability of new technologies used in the power control system and the design of a new design for installation in combat unit intercontinental ballistic missile. So the United States and its allies can now be sincerely congratulated. Their policy towards the DPRK was crowned with another resounding “success”.

North Korea announced on Wednesday a “successful” test of a hydrogen bomb.

The test was announced on North Korean state television, but even before that, several monitoring agencies recorded an artificial earthquake in the area of ​​the famous nuclear test site in North Korea.

The US Geological Survey reported a magnitude 5.1 earthquake, the epicenter of which was South Korea, was located about 50 kilometers from the Punggyeri training ground, where Pyongyang conducted nuclear tests in the past.

If this information is confirmed, this will be the fourth nuclear test conducted by North Korea.

“We assume that it was an artificial earthquake. We are analyzing its scale and studying its epicenter together with the South Korean Institute of Geological Sciences and mineral resources“,” a representative of the South Korean weather service told Reuters.

The China Seismological Center described the unusual seismic activity as a "suspected explosion."

The UN Security Council plans to discuss the situation at an emergency meeting on Wednesday morning, several diplomats accredited to the UN told Reuters.

US reaction

The White House said it could not yet confirm or deny North Korea's statement. However, the representative of the Council national security The US released a statement noting that the US "condemns any violation of UN Security Council resolutions and calls on North Korea to comply with it international obligations and promises,” writes Voice of America.

Russia's reaction

North Korea's nuclear tests violate the spirit of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and threaten Russia's national security. The head of the Federation Council Committee on international affairs Konstantin Kosachev.

Australia's reaction

Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop expressed "strong protest at the provocative and dangerous actions of the DPRK regime, which claims to have succeeded in testing a hydrogen bomb." “Today’s nuclear test confirms North Korea’s status as a rogue state, as well as the danger it poses to the world,” the head of the Australian Foreign Ministry said in a statement. — Australia will express its position to the DPRK government through direct channels, as well as within regional and international forums. Together with friends and partners, we will work to support the security of the Republic of Korea and enhance stability in the Asia-Pacific region.”

Paris' reaction

Paris called North Korea's hydrogen bomb test an "unacceptable violation" of a UN Security Council resolution. This is stated in a statement by the Elysee Palace. France condemned these actions by Pyongyang, writes TASS.

South Korea

South Korean news agency Yonhap reported that the country's President Park Geun-hye will soon hold a meeting of the National Security Council.

South Korea's Defense Ministry said the country's military is stepping up surveillance of North Korea.

Japan's reaction

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Wednesday the country must respond decisively to North Korea's nuclear nonproliferation challenge. Abe called the latest nuclear test a threat to Japan's security. In a conversation with reporters, the prime minister said that Japan cannot come to terms with North Korea conducting nuclear tests.

North Korea has previously conducted three nuclear tests: in 2006, 2009 and 2013. All of them took place at the Punggeri training ground.

Researchers at the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University said in December that recent satellite imagery suggests North Korea is building a new tunnel at the Punggye-ri test site.

“While there is no indication of an imminent nuclear test, the new tunnel strengthens North Korea's ability to carry out additional explosions if it chooses to do so,” they said at the time.

stdClass Object ( => 12 => In the USA => category => news-ssha)

stdClass Object ( => 91 => nuclear weapons=> post_tag => yadernoe-oruzhie)

stdClass Object ( => 92 => DPRK => post_tag => kndr)

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On September 3, seismologists from a number of countries recorded unusual tremors in North Korea. As reported by Yonhap, according to the Korea Meteorological Agency, located in South Korea, the power of the earthquake was 5.6 points. Geophysicists drew attention to the fact that seismic activity was recorded near the city of Kilju in the province of Hamgyong-buk-do, where the North Korean nuclear test site is located. The data of South Korean scientists was confirmed by their colleagues from the USA, Japan and China. According to the Chinese side, the power of the shock was 6.3 points.

The earthquake occurred around 6:30 Moscow time. Chinese and South Korean scientists also recorded a second earthquake of lower power - about 4.6 points. According to experts from the China Seismological Center (CENC), the second earthquake occurred at 6:38 Moscow time - presumably it was a collapse and subsidence rock, which collapsed as a result of the first shock.

According to the Primorsky Department of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, faint echoes of the earthquake in North Korea were also felt in Vladivostok. However, the background radiation in Russian Primorye is within normal limits.

“After the alleged nuclear test in the DPRK, no excess background radiation was recorded in the Primorsky Territory,” the department said in a statement.

According to the United States Geological Survey, the tremors in North Korea are nothing more than a “possible explosion.”

“Unless what happened is an explosion, the United States Geological Survey's National Earthquake Center cannot detect it (an earthquake. — RT) type,” seismologists said.

About the “explosion” of high power as a probable cause Chinese experts also reported two tremors.

The Japanese military noted that the North Korean bomb had a yield of 70 kilotons. The South Korean side estimated the charge power at 100 kilotons, and Norwegian seismologists speak of a figure of 120 kilotons - this is six times more powerful than the bomb dropped by the United States on Nagasaki in 1945 (21 kilotons).

A council on internal and external security issues was urgently convened in Seoul in connection with the testing of nuclear weapons by Pyongyang.

North Korea confirmed its first hydrogen bomb test and called it “absolutely successful,” South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported. The Daily Telegraph reports that North Korean television also reported the successful test of a thermonuclear charge.

“The power (of the explosion. — RT) 10 or 20 times more than in previous tests,” Seoul National University professor Kun She told Reuters. “This scale indicates a test of a hydrogen bomb,” the expert confirms the media information.

Juche motifs

“The hydrogen bomb test was conducted to test and confirm the accuracy and performance of power control technology and the internal design of a hydrogen bomb intended to be deployed on intercontinental ballistic missiles ah, the production of which has recently begun,” Yonhap quoted the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the official news agency of the DPRK, as saying.

Shortly before the tremors were recorded, KCNA posted information that the country had developed a new compact hydrogen warhead that could be placed on intercontinental ballistic missiles. North Korea conducted two tests of missiles with a range of up to 10,000 km, capable of hitting not only American bases on the island of Guam in the Pacific Ocean, but also the west coast of the United States in July.

• North Korean ballistic missile launch
• KCNA/Reuters

The new thermonuclear warhead was personally inspected by the country's leader Kim Jong-un, visiting the Institute nuclear development. “The Supreme Leader watched as hydrogen bomb installed on an ICBM,” the KCNA statement emphasizes.

“All components of the hydrogen bomb were made by domestic manufacturers, based on Juche ideas. Thus, the country can produce powerful nuclear weapons in as many quantities as it pleases,” KCNA quotes the North Korean leader.

Immediately after reports of the development in the DPRK of a new nuclear bomb, the leaders of Japan and the United States held telephone conversations on the North Korean issue. Donald Trump and Shinzo Abe “discussed the growing threat from the DPRK” and ways to put pressure on Pyongyang, the White House press service said.

In turn, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono called the DPRK's actions absolutely unforgivable and called on Russia to put more pressure on North Korea, in particular to consider introducing an oil embargo on Pyongyang.

However, this gesture, taking into account the history of the region, may be perceived in Pyongyang as a provocation, against the backdrop of ongoing exercises by the United States and South Korea.

“The fuel embargo is a direct preparation for war,” Konstantin Asmolov, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told RT. “Because if you’ve studied history, you know the role the American fuel embargo played in Japan’s entry into the war with the United States in 1941.”

“Here both technical and political reasons intertwined with each other,” political scientist Irina Lantsova explained that North Korea is conducting a nuclear test right now. — Main reason“pressure and threats from the United States, forcing Pyongyang to strengthen its defense.”

First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Alexander Sherin said in an interview with RT that the United States provoked the DPRK.

“Here we must say a big thank you to the United States, because they put the squeeze on the country. It is they who have created such conditions when the state begins to shrink into a ball and spend money on defense. Let American soldiers and bases go to the US borders, and there will be no such arms race in the world,” the deputy emphasized.

“Now North Korea finds itself in a situation where it needs to be guaranteed to protect itself, and in order to be guaranteed to receive this protection, it is necessary to conduct tests,” Lantsova notes. — Politics plays an indirect role here. In this case, it’s not even a demonstration, but a reaction to what’s happening.”

“Kim’s goals are clear: to try now at a very short terms bring your nuclear missile program to such a level that it is clear to everyone that there is no third option - either a war begins, or negotiations must be negotiated with North Korea,” noted Konstantin Asmolov.

“We must understand that Kim is not going to communize the south or portray the main villain of Indian cinema in a fit of psychopathy; his goals are more pragmatic,” says the expert.

• KCNA/Reuters

According to Asmolov, Pyongyang believes that, having received nuclear warheads capable of reaching the United States, it will reach a level of nuclear deterrence similar to the US-Chinese one. And then, despite the contradictions, the option of war between the two countries will be excluded.

We understand, but we don’t accept

“It cannot but be regrettable that the leadership of the DPRK, through its actions aimed at undermining the global non-proliferation regime, creates a serious threat to peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and in the region as a whole. Continuing such a line is fraught with serious consequences for the DPRK itself,” the Russian Foreign Ministry commented on the nuclear test in the DPRK.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called Pyongyang's actions "extremely sad act” and “complete disregard for the repeated demands of the international community.”

According to the Japanese Foreign Ministry, Tokyo has already sent a protest to Pyongyang through diplomatic channels in connection with the test of a thermonuclear charge. Shinzo Abe ordered to keep in touch with representatives of the United States, Russia and China in order to quickly respond to the developing crisis.

• Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe
• Reuters

“The actions of the DPRK are understandable, but unacceptable, because such a policy, firstly, greatly aggravates tensions, and secondly, undermines the world order, which is based on the authority of the UN, whose resolutions are ignored, and on the fact that nuclear weapons should be who is supposed to,” notes Konstantin Asmolov. “That is why Moscow and Beijing may question the essence of the sanctions, but believe that every such action should be formally condemned.”

According to the expert, the DPRK chose the date of the test poorly. "The congress is coming Communist Party China, today is the BRICS summit - I think that this will cause a certain emotional irritation in Moscow and Beijing and, naturally, we should expect a new round of tightening sanctions, although there is nowhere to tighten them further,” Asmolov believes.

Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Security and Defense Franz Klintsevich, in a conversation with RT, called the DPRK nuclear test a provocation.

“If earlier it was a skirmish, which, in my opinion, could hardly lead to any serious conflicts, then the tests that took place today are already a provocation on the part of North Korea. This is really serious now. I think this can no longer be allowed to happen. There is no alternative to the negotiation process and peaceful conversation. Today we need to sit down at the negotiating table and solve this problem, because North Korea defending its sovereignty in this way could lead to the emergence of very serious conflict“Klintsevich emphasized.

Trump will answer

“What is Trump going to do now? — Increase pressure on Russia and China to achieve some serious joint actions. The bet is that the irritation of Moscow and Beijing with such a move by North Korea will make them more accommodating in terms of American proposals,” believes Konstantin Asmolov.

In turn, South Korea has already announced that it will seek tougher sanctions against the DPRK - Yonhap reports this with reference to the head of the National Security Department of the South Korean Presidential Administration, Chung Eui-yong.

The agency notes that the Korean official has already held appropriate consultations with his American counterpart, President Trump's national security adviser, General Herbert McMaster. Yonhap also reports that South Korea will seek to host the “most powerful tactical weapons» USA.

“We are facing a very serious escalation, one of the most difficult in the last six months,” Irina Lantsova predicts the consequences of North Korea’s new nuclear tests.

• US President Donald Trump
• Reuters

According to the expert, main problem now the fact is that after a number of loud statements from the United States, the leaders of this country have seriously limited their space for maneuver and will most likely be forced to escalate. “The problem is that Trump has threatened so much, promised so much, that he will now have to do something,” says the political scientist.

“This is not the first nuclear test - this is the sixth nuclear test, and it has always been possible to do something diplomatically,” the expert notes. “But over the past six months there have been so many menacing promises to do something that we will now have to answer for our words,” Lantsova believes.

“We should expect greater emotional involvement,” notes Asmolov. According to the expert, despite the expected tightening of rhetoric from the United States, the likelihood new war in Korea now it is “only” 35%. “I used to say that the probability of conflict on the peninsula is approximately 30%, but now it has increased by five percent,” the expert believes.

North Korea conducted another nuclear weapons test on September 3. Now, they claim, a hydrogen bomb has been detonated. On Far East recorded seismic tremors. Based on them, experts estimated the charge power to be from 50 to 100 kilotons. The power of the bombs detonated by the Americans in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 was about 20 kilotons. Then two explosions killed more than 200 thousand people. The Korean bomb is many times more powerful. A few days earlier, North Korea tested its ballistic missile. This rocket flew 2,700 kilometers and fell in the Pacific Ocean. Flew over the Japanese island of Hokkaido.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that they will now fire missiles towards the American military base on the island of Guam. And this island is a little further from Korea - 3,300 kilometers. Moreover, some experts claim that this rocket can fly twice the distance. According to the map, such a missile could reach the United States. At least Alaska is already in the kill zone.

So, there is a rocket and there is a bomb. This does not mean that the Koreans are ready to launch a nuclear missile strike right now. A nuclear explosive device is not yet a warhead. Experts say that pairing a bomb and a missile requires several years of work. However, it is absolutely clear that for Korean engineers this is a solvable task. The Americans are threatening North Korea with a military strike. Indeed, it seems like a simple solution - destroy by air launchers, factories for the production of missiles and nuclear weapons. And the habits of Americans in this regard are simple. Anything - immediately bomb. Why aren't they bombing now? And they threaten somehow hesitantly. Because from the border separating North and South Korea to the center of Seoul, the capital of South Korea, is a little over 30 kilometers.

Intercontinental ballistic missiles will not be needed here. Here you can shoot howitzers. And Seoul is a city of ten million. By the way, many Americans live there. The US and South Korea have extensive business relations. So in response to an American attack, the North Koreans may attack South Korea, Seoul first. North Korea's army is one million strong. There are another four million in reserve.

Some hotheads say: this is a poor country with a very weak economy. Well, firstly, the economy there is no longer as weak as it was 20 years ago. According to indirect signs, there economic growth. Well, secondly, they were able to make a rocket. Atomic bomb and even made a hydrogen one. They should not be underestimated. Therefore, there are risks of a major war on the Korean Peninsula. This topic was discussed on September 3 by the leaders of Russia and China. They met in the Chinese city of Xiamen ahead of the BRICS summit.

“There was a discussion of the situation on the Korean Peninsula in light of the DPRK’s hydrogen bomb test. Both Putin and Xi Jinping expressed deep concern about this situation, they noted the importance of preventing chaos on the Korean Peninsula, the importance of all parties showing restraint and focusing on finding a solution only through political and diplomatic means,” said Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov .

No matter what Kim Jong-un is, no matter how he behaves, no matter what we think about him, there are still negotiations, a search for a compromise better than war, especially since interested parties have enough tools to put pressure on North Korea.

“Today, September 3, at 12 o’clock, North Korean scientists successfully tested a hydrogen warhead at the northern test site, designed to equip intercontinental ballistic missiles,” said a North Korean television announcer.

According to South Korean experts, the power of the bomb exploded in North Korea could reach 100 kilotons, which is about six Hiroshimas. The explosion was accompanied by an earthquake 10 times greater stronger than that, which happened last year when Pyongyang conducted its previous nuclear test. The echoes of this earthquake, which is now clearly man-made, were felt far beyond the borders of the DPRK. Even before Pyongyang’s official statement, seismologists in Vladivostok already guessed what had happened. “The coordinates coincide with the nuclear test site,” notes the seismologist.

“In terms of distance, it is approximately 250-300 kilometers from Vladivostok. At the epicenter of the earthquake itself, in all likelihood, the magnitude was about seven. On the border of Primorye it is somewhere around five points. In Vladivostok, no more than two or three points,” said seismologist on duty Amed Saiduloev.

Pyongyang confirmed the test report with a photo report on the development of a compact hydrogen warhead. It is alleged that the DPRK has enough of its own resources produced in the country to create such warheads. Kim Jong-un was personally present during the installation of the warhead on the missile. Pyongyang sees nuclear weapons as the only guarantee of the country's existence. For more than half a century, North Korea has legally remained in a state of temporarily suspended war, without any guarantee of its non-resumption. That is why any attempts to force North Korea to abandon its nuclear program have so far only accelerated it.

“The fragile armistice agreement of 1953, which still governs relations between the United States and the DPRK, is an anachronism, it does not fulfill its functions, it does not contribute and cannot somehow ensure security and stability on the Korean Peninsula; it needs to be replaced a long time ago,” emphasizes the head of the department of Korea and Mongolia at the Institute of Oriental Studies Russian Academy Sciences Alexander Vorontsov.

China and Russia have been insisting for years that there is no prospect of continuing pressure on Pyongyang and the need to start direct negotiations. Moreover, Washington is being offered a real opportunity to solve the problem: not even a suspension, but just a reduction in the scale of joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea in exchange for Pyongyang freezing its nuclear missile tests.

“We also spoke with John Kerry. They told us the same thing that the Trump administration is now repeating: this is an unequal proposal, because launches and nuclear tests in North Korea are prohibited by the Security Council, and military exercises are an absolutely legitimate thing. But to this we answer: yes, if you rely on such legalistic logic, of course, no one accuses you of violating international law. But if it comes to war, then the first step must be taken by the one who is smarter and stronger. And there can be no doubt who in this pair has such qualities. Although, who knows...,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

So, the Americans are pressing harshly and senselessly, the Koreans are chomping at the bit to answer, and cutting this vicious circle is offered to us and China. Otherwise - war!

“North Korea's provocative behavior could lead to the US intercepting their missiles - shooting them down both in the air and on the ground before launch, what we call a hot launch. There are both military methods of solution and diplomatic methods - economic pressure, tightening sanctions. There is, after all, the decisive role of China and the influence of Russia in the region, they can put pressure on North Korea,” says retired US Army General Paul Valley.

At the same time, today it is absolutely clear that neither Beijing, nor even more so Moscow, will be able to bring Pyongyang to reason without removing the main threat, and it comes from the United States, which is refusing our proposals to sit down with the Koreans at the negotiating table. At the same time, Trump deliberately continues to escalate the situation. In the context of the beginning economic war with China, it is beneficial for the Americans to keep Beijing in constant voltage in the position of the guilty, knowing that the key to solving the problem is with them - in Washington. However, this cannot continue indefinitely. After all, Korean missiles fly further and further each time. Thus, on the one hand, increasing the risk fatal accident, on the other hand, pushing Trump to carry out his threats, which is completely impossible.

“China has a mutual defense treaty with North Korea. Thus, Trump does not have any way of influencing North Korea militarily; he can neither attack nor use military force, so all this is like an empty shock of air,” says Pyotr Akopov, deputy editor-in-chief of the Vzglyad.ru portal.

Today's explosion is evidence that for the first time in the last quarter century the United States is faced with a situation where there is no alternative to negotiations. Sooner or later, they will have to agree to the scheme proposed by Moscow and Beijing - the cessation of military exercises and guarantees of non-aggression in exchange for freezing Pyongyang's nuclear missile program. The Americans, of course, will not remove their troops from South Korea, and North Korea will remain with its several nuclear warheads, just in case.

We will see how this will be arranged in the near future. However, the latest unexpected statement by the President of Kazakhstan about the need to legalize nuclear status states that actually possess nuclear weapons, and the subsequent invitation of Nazarbayev to Washington, may not be accidental.

Trial thermonuclear weapons expectedly led to a number of countries, including France and Japan, calling for an immediate emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. However, as you know, usually such meetings, as well as the resolutions adopted at them, have no effect on Pyongyang. This was confirmed, for example, by the recent rocket launch, when the rocket flew over Japan. And the explosion of a thermonuclear warhead proves that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un does not intend to compromise, but only aims to raise the stakes.

It is worth noting that the current test is not the first of its kind. Kim Jong-un announced that North Korea has a hydrogen (also known as thermonuclear) bomb back in 2015. And already at the beginning of 2016, Pyongyang announced the successful testing of this type of weapon. Many foreign experts then agreed that it was a nuclear bomb, not a hydrogen bomb - supposedly this was evidenced by the relatively low power of the explosion.

This time, however, there is less skepticism among foreign analysts. Japanese seismologists have already stated that the power of the earthquake caused by the explosion at the North Korean test site was ten times greater than during the previous testing of nuclear weapons in the DPRK (it took place on September 9, 2016).

The current hydrogen bomb test - and a successful one at that - is adding even more instability to the already tense situation on the Korean Peninsula. If earlier some experts questioned the fact that the DPRK has both a thermonuclear warhead and an intercontinental launch vehicle for it, now the opposite has been convincingly proven. And this is especially dangerous in a situation where US President Donald Trump is increasingly declaring that it is impossible to resolve the North Korean problem through diplomacy.

“By testing a hydrogen bomb, North Korea demonstrated high level their nuclear technologies,” noted an expert from the board of the Military-Industrial Commission of the Russian Federation in an interview with MK Victor MURAKHOVSKY. - The mock-up of a warhead with a thermonuclear charge shown by the North Korean side is quite suitable for installation on their missiles medium range"Hwangseong-12". This rocket was recently in once again tested - flew over Japan and covered 2700 km. In principle, its range is 4000 km, and to the American base in Guam (Pyongyang has repeatedly threatened to attack it. - "MK") from North Korea - 3200 km. Most likely, serial production of the Hwangsong-12 has already been established in the DPRK. However, the demonstrated warhead is also suitable for operational-tactical missiles. Having mastered the technology for producing a thermonuclear charge, the DPRK is no longer limited in the power of its bombs - that is, they will be able to produce (and perhaps are already producing) megaton-class warheads. “Classical” nuclear weapons have limitations in power, but thermonuclear weapons (all modern ammunition exactly like that) - no. By the way, according to expert estimates, during the latest tests in the DPRK, a charge with a capacity of about 50 kilotons was detonated.”