El Niño phenomenon. Natural phenomenon El Niño

In the World Ocean, special phenomena (processes) are observed that can be considered anomalous. These phenomena extend over vast water areas and are of great ecological and geographical significance. Such anomalous phenomena covering the ocean and atmosphere are El Niño and La Niña. However, a distinction must be made between the El Niño current and the El Niño phenomenon.

El Niño current - a constant current, small on an oceanic scale, off the northwestern coast South America . It can be traced from the Gulf of Panama area and follows south along the coasts of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru to about 5 0 S However, approximately once every 6 - 7 years (but it happens more or less often), the El Niño current spreads far to the south, sometimes to northern and even central Chile (up to 35-40 0 S). The warm waters of El Niño push the cold waters of the Peru-Chile Current and coastal upwelling into the open ocean. Ocean surface temperatures in the coastal zone of Ecuador and Peru rise to 21–23 0 C, and sometimes up to 25–29 0 C. The anomalous development of this warm current, which lasts almost six months - from December to May and which usually appears around Catholic Christmas, is called "El Niño" - from the Spanish "El Nico - the baby (Christ)." It was first noticed in 1726.

This purely oceanological process has tangible and often catastrophic environmental consequences on land. Due to the sharp warming of water in the coastal zone (by 8-14 0 C), the amount of oxygen and, accordingly, the biomass of cold-loving species of phyto- and zooplankton, the main food of anchovies and other commercial fish of the Peruvian region, significantly decreases. A huge number of fish either die or disappear from this water area. Peruvian anchovy catches fall 10 times in such years. After the fish, the birds that feed on them also disappear. As a result of this natural disaster, South American fishermen are going bankrupt. In previous years, the abnormal development of El Niño led to famine in several countries on the Pacific coast of South America. . In addition, during the passage of El Niño deteriorate sharply weather conditions in Ecuador, Peru and northern Chile, where powerful downpours occur, leading to catastrophic floods, mudflows and soil erosion on the western slopes of the Andes.

However, the consequences of the anomalous development of the El Niño current are felt only on the Pacific coast of South America.

The main culprit for the increasing frequency of weather anomalies in recent years, which have covered almost all continents, is called El Niño/La Niña phenomenon, manifested in a significant change in the temperature of the upper layer of water in the eastern tropical part Pacific Ocean, which causes intense turbulent heat and moisture exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere.

Currently, the term "El Niño" is used to refer to situations where abnormally warm surface waters occupy not only the coastal region near South America, but also most of the tropical Pacific Ocean up to the 180th meridian.

Under normal weather conditions, when the El Niño phase has not yet arrived, warm surface ocean waters are held by easterly winds - trade winds - in the western zone of the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. The depth of this warm layer of water reaches 100-200 meters, and it is the formation of such a large heat reservoir that is the main and necessary condition for the transition to the El Niño phenomenon. At this time, the water surface temperature in the west of the ocean in the tropical zone is 29-30°, while in the east it is 22-24°C. This difference in temperature is explained by the rise of cold deep waters to the surface of the ocean off the west coast of South America. At the same time, in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, a water area with a huge reserve of heat is formed and equilibrium is observed in the ocean-atmosphere system. This is a situation of normal balance.

Approximately once every 3-7 years, the balance is disrupted, and the warm waters of the western Pacific Ocean move eastward, and over a huge area of ​​water in the equatorial eastern part of the ocean there is a sharp increase in the temperature of the surface layer of water. The El Niño phase begins, the beginning of which is marked by sudden heavy westerly winds (Fig. 22). They reverse the usual weak trade winds over the warm western Pacific and prevent cold, deep waters off the west coast of South America from rising to the surface. Related El Niño atmospheric phenomena were called the Southern Oscillation (ENSO - El Niño - Southern Oscillation) because they were first observed in Southern Hemisphere. Due to the warm water surface, intense convective rise of air is observed in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, and not in the western part, as usual. As a result, the area of ​​heavy rainfall shifts from the western to the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rain and hurricanes hit Central and South America.

Rice. 22. Normal conditions and the onset phase of El Niño

Over the past 25 years, there have been five active El Niño cycles: 1982-83, 1986-87, 1991-1993, 1994-95 and 1997-98.

The mechanism for the development of the La Niña phenomenon (in Spanish La Niсa - “girl”) - the “antipode” of El Niño is somewhat different. The La Niña phenomenon manifests itself as a decrease in surface water temperature below the climate norm in the eastern equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean. Installation here is unusual cold weather. During the formation of La Niña, easterly winds from the west coast of the Americas increase significantly. Winds shift the warm water zone (WWZ), and the “tongue” of cold waters stretches for 5000 kilometers in exactly the place (Ecuador - Samoa Islands) where during El Niño there should be a belt of warm waters. This belt of warm waters moves to the western Pacific Ocean, causing powerful monsoon rains in Indochina, India and Australia. At the same time, the countries of the Caribbean and the United States suffer from droughts, dry winds and tornadoes.

La Niña cycles occurred in 1984-85, 1988-89 and 1995-96.

Although the atmospheric processes that develop during El Niño or La Niña mostly operate in tropical latitudes, their consequences are felt throughout the planet and are accompanied by environmental disasters: hurricanes and rainstorms, droughts and fires.

El Niño occurs on average once every three to four years, La Niña - once every six to seven years. Both phenomena bring with them an increased number of hurricanes, but during La Niña there are three to four times more storms than during El Niño.

The occurrence of El Niño or La Niña can be predicted if:

1. Near the equator in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, an area of ​​warmer water than usual (El Niño phenomenon) or colder water (La Niña phenomenon) forms.

2. The atmospheric pressure trend between the port of Darwin (Australia) and the island of Tahiti (Pacific Ocean) is compared. During El Niño, pressure will be low in Tahiti and high in Darwin. During La Niña it is the other way around.

Research has established that the El Niño phenomenon is not only simple coordinated fluctuations in surface pressure and ocean water temperature. El Niño and La Niña are the most pronounced manifestations of interannual climate variability on a global scale. These phenomena represent large-scale changes in ocean temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and vertical air movements over the tropical Pacific Ocean and lead to abnormal weather conditions around the globe.

During El Niño years in the tropics, precipitation increases over areas east of the central Pacific Ocean and decreases over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines. In December-February, above-normal precipitation is observed along the coast of Ecuador, in northwestern Peru, over southern Brazil, central Argentina and over equatorial, eastern Africa, during June-August in the western United States and over central Chile.

El Niño is also responsible for large-scale air temperature anomalies around the world.

During El Niño years, energy transfer into the troposphere of tropical and temperate latitudes increases. This is manifested in an increase in thermal contrasts between tropical and polar latitudes, and intensification of cyclonic and anticyclonic activity in temperate latitudes.

During El Niño years:

1. The Honolulu and Asian anticyclones are weakened;

2. The summer depression over southern Eurasia is filled, which is the main reason for the weakening of the monsoon over India;

3. The winter Aleutian and Icelandic lows are more developed than usual.

During La Niña years, precipitation increases over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, Indonesia, and the Philippines and is almost completely absent in the eastern part of the ocean. More precipitation falls in northern South America, in South Africa and south-eastern Australia. Drier than normal conditions are observed along the coast of Ecuador, northwestern Peru and equatorial eastern Africa. Large-scale temperature deviations from normal have been observed throughout the world since a large number areas experiencing abnormally cool conditions.

Over the past decade, great strides have been made in the comprehensive study of the El Niño phenomenon. This phenomenon does not depend on solar activity, but is associated with features in the planetary interaction of the ocean and atmosphere. A connection has been established between El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (El Niño-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) of the surface atmospheric pressure in southern latitudes. This change in atmospheric pressure leads to significant changes in the trade wind system and monsoon winds and, accordingly, surface ocean currents.

The El Niño phenomenon is increasingly affecting the global economy. So, this phenomenon of 1982-83. provoked terrible rainfalls in the countries of South America, caused enormous losses, and the economies of many countries were paralyzed. The effects of El Niño were felt by half of the world's population.

The strongest El Niño of 1997-1998 was the strongest during the entire observation period. It caused the most powerful hurricane in the history of meteorological observations, sweeping over the countries of South and Central America. Hurricane winds and downpours swept away hundreds of houses, entire areas were flooded, and vegetation was destroyed. In Peru, in the Atacama Desert, where rains generally occur once every ten years, a huge lake with an area of ​​tens of square kilometers has formed. Unusual warm weather was recorded in South Africa, southern Mozambique, Madagascar, and an unprecedented drought reigned in Indonesia and the Philippines, leading to forest fires. In India there were virtually no ordinary monsoon rains, while in arid Somalia the amount of precipitation was significantly higher than normal. The total damage from the disaster amounted to about 50 billion dollars.

El Niño 1997-1998 significantly affected the average global air temperature of the Earth: it exceeded normal by 0.44°C. In the same year, 1998, the highest average annual air temperature was recorded on Earth for all years of instrumental observations.

The collected data indicate the regular occurrence of El Niño with an interval ranging from 4 to 12 years. The duration of El Niño itself varies from 6–8 months to 3 years, most often it is 1–1.5 years. This great variability makes it difficult to predict the phenomenon.

The influence of the climatic phenomena El Niño and La Niña, and therefore the number of unfavorable weather conditions on the planet, according to climate specialists, will increase. Therefore, humanity must closely monitor and study these climate phenomena.

Phenomenon La Nina ("girl" in Spanish)) is characterized by an anomalous decrease in water surface temperature in the central and eastern part of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This process is the reverse of El Nino ("boy"), which, on the contrary, is associated with warming in the same zone. These states replace each other with a frequency of about a year.

Both El Niño and La Niña influence circulation patterns of ocean and atmospheric currents, which in turn influence weather and climate throughout to the globe, causing droughts in some regions, hurricanes and heavy rains- in others.

After a period of neutrality in the El Niño-La Niña cycle observed in mid-2011, tropical zone The Pacific Ocean began to cool in August, and a weak to moderate La Niña has been observed from October until now.

"Forecasts made on the basis mathematical models, and their expert interpretation suggests that La Niña is close to maximum strength, and will likely begin to slowly weaken in the coming months. However existing methods do not allow us to predict the situation beyond May, so it is unclear what situation will develop in the Pacific Ocean - whether it will be El Niño, La Niña or a neutral situation,” the message says.

Scientists note that La Niña 2011-2012 was significantly weaker than in 2010-2011. Models predict that temperatures in the Pacific will approach neutral between March and May 2012.

La Niña 2010 was accompanied by a decrease in cloud cover and increased trade winds. The decrease in pressure led to heavy rain in Australia, Indonesia and countries Southeast Asia. In addition, according to meteorologists, it is La Niña that is responsible for heavy rains in the south and drought in the east. equatorial Africa, as well as for the drought situation in central regions southwest asia and in South America.

El Niño(Spanish) El Niño— Baby, Boy) or Southern Oscillation(English) El Niño/La Niña - Southern Oscillation, ENSO ) is a fluctuation in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, which has a noticeable effect on the climate. In a narrower sense El Niño — phase of the Southern Oscillation, in which the area of ​​heated surface waters shifts to the east. At the same time, trade winds weaken or stop altogether, and upwelling slows down in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Peru. The opposite phase of oscillation is called La Niña(Spanish) La Nina— Baby, Girl). The characteristic oscillation time is from 3 to 8 years, but the strength and duration of El Niño in reality varies greatly. Thus, in 1790-1793, 1828, 1876-1878, 1891, 1925-1926, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, powerful phases of El Niño were recorded, while, for example, in 1991-1992, 1993, 1994 this phenomenon , often repeating, was weakly expressed. El Niño 1997-1998 was so strong that it attracted the attention of the world community and the press. At the same time, theories about the connection between the Southern Oscillation and global changes climate. Since the early 1980s, El Niño also occurred in 1986–1987 and 2002–2003.

Normal conditions along the western coast of Peru are determined by the cold Peruvian Current, which carries water from the south. Where the current turns to the west, along the equator, cold and plankton-rich waters rise from deep depressions, which contributes to the active development of life in the ocean. The cold current itself determines the aridity of the climate in this part of Peru, forming deserts. Trade winds drive the heated surface layer of water into western zone tropical part of the Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. In it, the water is heated to depths of 100-200 m. The Walker atmospheric circulation, manifested in the form of trade winds, coupled with low blood pressure over the Indonesian region, leads to the fact that in this place the level of the Pacific Ocean is 60 cm higher than in its eastern part. And the water temperature here reaches 29 - 30 °C versus 22 - 24 °C off the coast of Peru. However, everything changes with the onset of El Niño. The trade winds are weakening, the TTB is spreading, and water temperatures are rising across a vast area of ​​the Pacific Ocean. In the region of Peru, the cold current is replaced by a warm current moving from the west to the coast of Peru. water mass, upwelling weakens, fish die without food, and westerly winds bring humid air masses and downpours to the deserts, even causing floods. The onset of El Niño reduces the activity of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

The first mention of the term "El Niño" dates back to 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrilo reported at a congress Geographical Society in Lima that Peruvian sailors called the warm northerly current "El Niño" because it is most noticeable on days Catholic Christmas. In 1893, Charles Todd suggested that droughts in India and Australia were occurring at the same time. Norman Lockyer also pointed out the same thing in 1904. The connection between the warm northerly current off the coast of Peru and floods in that country was reported in 1895 by Peset and Eguiguren. The phenomena of the Southern Oscillation were first described in 1923 by Gilbert Thomas Walker. He introduced the terms Southern Oscillation, El Niño and La Niña, and examined the zonal convection circulation in the atmosphere in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, which now received his name. For a long time, almost no attention was paid to the phenomenon, considering it regional. Only towards the end of the 20th century. The connection between El Niño and the planet’s climate has been clarified.

El Niño 1997 (TOPEX)

Quantitative description

Currently, to quantitatively describe the phenomena, El Niño and La Niña are defined as temperature anomalies surface layer of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean for a duration of at least 5 months, expressed in a deviation of water temperature by 0.5 °C upward (El Nino) or downward (La Nina).

First signs of El Niño:

1. Increase in air pressure above Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
2. A drop in pressure over Tahiti, over the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean.
3. Weakening of the trade winds in the South Pacific until they cease and the wind direction changes to the westerly.
4. Warm air mass in Peru, rains in the Peruvian deserts.

In itself, an increase in water temperature off the coast of Peru by 0.5 °C is considered only a condition for the occurrence of El Niño. Typically, such an anomaly can exist for several weeks and then disappear safely. And only five-month anomaly classified as an El Niño event, can cause significant damage to the region’s economy due to a drop in fish catches.

Also used to describe El Niño Southern Oscillation Index(English) Southern Oscillation Index, SOI ). It is calculated as the difference in pressure over Tahiti and over Darwin (Australia). Negative values index indicate about the El Niño phase, and positive ones - about La Niña .

The influence of El Niño on the climate of various regions

In South America El Niño effect most pronounced. This phenomenon usually causes warm and very humid summer periods(December to February) on the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador. When El Niño is strong, it causes severe flooding. This happened, for example, in January 2011. Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than usual periods, but mainly in the spring and early summer. Central Chile experiences mild winters with plenty of rain, while Peru and Bolivia occasionally experience winter snowfalls that are unusual for the region. Drier and warmer weather is observed in the Amazon Basin, Colombia and Central America. Humidity decreases in Indonesia, increasing the likelihood of forest fires. This also applies to the Philippines and northern Australia. From June to August, dry weather occurs in Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales and eastern Tasmania. In Antarctica, the western Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered with large amounts of snow and ice. At the same time, the pressure increases and becomes warmer. IN North America Winters are generally getting warmer in the Midwest and Canada. Central and southern California, northwestern Mexico and the southeastern United States are becoming wetter, while the Pacific Northwest states are becoming drier. During La Niña, on the other hand, the Midwest becomes drier. El Niño also leads to reduced Atlantic hurricane activity. East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the White Nile Basin, experience long rainy seasons from March to May. Droughts plague southern and central Africa from December to February, mainly Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.

An effect similar to El Niño is sometimes observed in Atlantic Ocean, where the water along the equatorial coast of Africa becomes warmer, and the water off the coast of Brazil becomes colder. Moreover, there is a connection between this circulation and El Niño.

Impact of El Niño on health and society

El Niño causes extreme weather conditions associated with cycles in the incidence of epidemic diseases. El Niño is associated with an increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases: malaria, dengue fever, and Rift Valley fever. Malaria cycles are associated with El Niño in India, Venezuela and Colombia. There has been an association with outbreaks of Australian encephalitis (Murray Valley Encephalitis - MVE) occurring in south-eastern Australia following heavy rainfall and flooding caused by La Niña. A striking example is a severe outbreak of Rift Valley fever that occurred due to El Niño following extreme rainfall events in northeastern Kenya and southern Somalia in 1997-98.

It is also believed that El Niño may be associated with the cyclical nature of wars and the emergence of civil conflicts in countries whose climate is influenced by El Niño. A study of data from 1950 to 2004 found that El Niño was associated with 21% of all civil conflicts during that period. At the same time, the risk of civil war in El Niño years it is twice as high as in La Niña years. It is likely that the connection between climate and military action is mediated by crop failures, which often occur in hot years.

The La Niña phenomenon is an anomalous cooling of the surface in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean in winter. According to Japanese meteorologists, the most low temperatures were recorded in mid-February, but by early March the indicators had returned to normal levels. According to weather forecasters, this is a sign of the imminent final approach to the fall - at least in Japan, located in the Pacific Ocean. Experts are currently studying the possibility of an opposite phenomenon, El Niño, occurring this coming summer, which is characterized by an anomalous increase in water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

La Niña typically results in heavy rainfall and tropical storms on the west coast of South America, south-east Asia and eastern equatorial Africa. Nevertheless, this phenomenon can influence the weather on a global scale. In particular, this winter the phenomenon became one of the factors that led to severe cold in Europe, ITAR-TASS reports.

http://news.rambler.ru/13104180/33618609/

The climate phenomenon La Niña, associated with a drop in water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and influencing weather patterns across almost the entire globe, has disappeared and is not likely to return until the end of 2012, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.

The La Nina phenomenon (La Nina, "girl" in Spanish) is characterized by an anomalous decrease in surface water temperature in the central and eastern part of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This process is the opposite of El Niño (El Nino, “the boy”), which, on the contrary, is associated with warming in the same zone. These states replace each other with a frequency of about a year.

Following a period of neutrality in the El Niño–La Niña cycle observed in mid-2011, the tropical Pacific began to cool in August and has experienced weak to moderate La Niña from October to date. By early April, La Niña had completely disappeared, and neutral conditions are still observed in the equatorial Pacific, experts write.

“(Analysis of modeling results) suggests that La Niña is unlikely to return this year, while the probabilities of remaining neutral and El Niño occurring in the second half of the year are approximately equal,” the WMO said.

Both El Niño and La Niña influence circulation patterns of ocean and atmospheric currents, which in turn influence weather and climate across the globe, causing droughts in some regions and hurricanes and heavy rainfall in others.
Message from 05/17/2012

The La Niña climate phenomenon that occurred in 2011 was so strong that it ultimately caused global sea levels to drop by as much as 5 mm. With the advent of La Niña, there was a shift in Pacific surface temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns around the world, as terrestrial moisture began to leave the ocean and be directed to land in the form of rain in Australia, northern South America, and Southeast Asia .

The alternating dominance of the warm oceanic phase of the Southern Oscillation, El Niño, and the cold phase, La Niña, can change global sea levels so dramatically, but satellite data inexorably indicates that global levels have The waters still rise to a height of about 3 mm.

As soon as El Niño arrives, the rise in water levels begins to occur faster, but with a change in phases almost every five years, a diametrically opposite phenomenon is observed. The strength of the effect of a particular phase also depends on other factors and clearly reflects the general climate change towards its harshness. Many scientists around the world are studying both phases of the southern oscillation, as they contain many clues to what is happening on Earth and what awaits it.

A moderate to strong La Niña atmospheric phenomenon will continue in the tropical Pacific until April 2011. This is according to an El Niño/La Niña advisory issued on Monday by the World Meteorological Organization.

As the document highlights, all model-based forecasts predict a continuation or possible intensification of the La Niña phenomenon over the next 4-6 months, ITAR-TASS reports.

La Niña, which this year formed in June-July, replacing the El Niño phenomenon that ended in April, is characterized by unusually low water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial parts of the Pacific Ocean. This disrupts normal tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns. El Niño is exactly the opposite phenomenon, which is characterized by unusual high temperatures waters in the Pacific Ocean.

The effects of these phenomena can be felt in many parts of the planet, expressed in floods, storms, droughts, increases or, conversely, decreases in temperatures. Typically, La Niña results in heavy winter rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and severe droughts in Ecuador, northwestern Peru, and eastern equatorial Africa.

La Niña, which may increase in intensity and continue until the end of this year or the beginning of next year.

In the latest report in the Ministry of Defense on El Niño phenomena and La Niña, it is said that the current La Niña phenomenon will peak at the end of this year, but the intensity will be less than it was in the second half of 2010. Due to its uncertainty, the MoD invites the countries of the Pacific Ocean basin to closely monitor its development and promptly report possible droughts and floods due to it.

The La Niña phenomenon refers to the phenomenon of an anomalous long-term large-scale cooling of the waters in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, which gives rise to a global climate anomaly. The previous La Niña event resulted in spring drought along the western Pacific coast, including China.

Can you imagine such a picture in the underground passage of your city?
But in vain. In our life everything is possible, and even more!
Temperatures are rising, the climate is changing, rivers are overflowing their banks, water levels in the world's oceans are rising, and scammers are skimming the cream off people's fears. Global warming And global example then the premiere of the film "". Which one do you think?
And here she is!

Recent sea level data from NASA (using the Jason-2 oceanography satellite) show that large-scale, persistent weakening of winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October caused strong, moving east direction wave of warm water. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, this warm wave appears as an area of ​​more high level sea, compared to normal and warmer sea surface temperatures.
The image was created using data collected by the US/European satellite during a 10-day period spanning late October and early November. The picture shows a red and white area in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that is approximately 10 to 18 centimeters above normal. These areas contrast with the western equatorial Pacific, where lower water levels (blue and purple areas) are between 8 to 15 centimeters below normal. Along the equator, red and white colors represent areas where sea ​​temperatures surfaces one to two degrees Celsius above normal.

These are many interacting parts of one global system of ocean-atmospheric climate fluctuations that occur as a sequence of oceanic and atmospheric circulations. It is the world's best known source of interannual weather and climate variability (3 to 8 years).

Signs of El Niño are as follows:
Increase in air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
Warm air appears near Peru, causing rain in the deserts.
Warm water spreads from the western part of the Pacific Ocean to the eastern part. It brings rain with it, causing it to occur in areas that are usually dry.
Because warm waters El Niño fueled storms create increased rainfall in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
The western Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered with large amounts of snow and ice during El Niño. The latter two and the Wedell Sea become warmer and are under higher atmospheric pressure.
In North America, winters are generally warmer than normal in the Midwest and Canada, while central and southern California, northwestern Mexico and the southeastern United States are getting wetter. The Pacific Northwest states, in other words, dry out during El Niño.
Based on this data, I can write new script for a smashing blockbuster. As usual: apocalypse, catastrophe, panic... El Niño 2029 or El Niño 2033. Nowadays it’s fashionable to invent everything with numbers. Or, perhaps simply.
El Nin o-o

Australian meteorologists are sounding the alarm: in the next year or two the world will experience extreme weather, triggered by the activation of the circular equatorial Pacific current El Niño, which, in turn, can provoke natural disasters, crop failures,
diseases and civil wars.

El Niño, a circular current previously known only to narrow specialists, became TOP news in 1998/99, when in December 1997 it suddenly became abnormally active and changed the usual weather in the Northern Hemisphere for a whole year in advance. Then, all summer, thunderstorms flooded the Crimea and the Black Sea resorts, the tourist and mountaineering season in the Carpathians and the Caucasus was disrupted, and in the cities of Central and Western Europe(Baltics, Transcarpathia, Poland, Germany, Britain, Italy etc.) in spring, autumn and winter
there were long-term floods with considerable (tens of thousands) human casualties:

True, climatologists and meteorologists figured out to connect these weather disasters with the activation of El Niño only a year later, when it was all over. Then we learned that El Niño is a warm circular current (more correctly, a countercurrent) that occurs periodically in equatorial region Pacific:


El Niña's place on the world map
And that in Spanish this name means “girl” and this girl has a twin brother La Niño - also a circular, but cold Pacific current. Together, replacing each other, these hyperactive children play pranks so that the whole world shakes with fear. But the sister is still in charge of the robber family duo:


El Niño and La Niño are twin currents with opposite characters.
They work in shifts

Temperature map of Pacific waters during El Niño and La Niño activation

In the second half of last year, meteorologists predicted with 80% probability a new violent manifestation of the El Niño phenomenon. But it only appeared in February 2015. This was announced National Administration oceanological and atmospheric research USA.

The activity of El Niño and La Niño is cyclical and is associated with cosmic cycles of solar activity.
At least that's what was previously thought. Now, much of El Niño’s behavior has ceased to fit
according to the standard theory, activation has almost doubled in frequency. It is very possible that increased activity
El Niño caused global warming. In addition to the fact that El Niño itself affects atmospheric transport, it (even more importantly) changes the nature and strength of other Pacific - permanent - currents. And then - according to the domino law: everything familiar collapses climate map planets.


Typical diagram of the tropical water cycle in the Pacific Ocean

On December 19, 1997, El Niño intensified and lasted for the whole year
changed the climate of the entire planet

The rapid activation of El Niño is caused by a slight (from a human point of view) increase in the temperature of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator off the coast of Central and South America. Peruvian fishermen were the first to notice this phenomenon at the end of the 19th century. Their catches periodically disappeared and their fishing business collapsed. It turned out that as the water temperature increases, the oxygen content in it and the amount of plankton decreases, which leads to the death of fish and, accordingly, a sharp reduction in catches.
The influence of El Niño on the climate of our planet is not yet fully understood. However, many scientists agree
on the fact that during El Niño the number of extreme events increases weather phenomena. Yes, during
El Niño in 1997-1998 in many countries in winter months there was abnormally warm weather,
which caused the aforementioned floods.

One of the consequences of weather disasters is epidemics of malaria, dengue fever and other diseases. At the same time, westerly winds carry rain and floods into the desert. El Niño arrivals are believed to contribute to military and social conflicts in countries affected by this natural phenomenon.
Some scientists argue that between 1950 and 2004, El Niño doubled the likelihood of civil wars.

It is known for certain that during El Niño activation the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones increases. And the current state of affairs is in good agreement with this theory. “In the Indian Ocean, where the cyclone season should already be coming to an end, two vortices are developing at once. And in the northwest Pacific Ocean, where the tropical cyclone season is just beginning in April, 5 similar vortices have already appeared, which is approximately a fifth of the the entire seasonal norm of cyclones,” reports the website meteonovosti.ru.

Where and how else the weather will react to the new activation of El Niño, meteorologists cannot yet say for sure.
but they are already sure of one thing: the world’s population is again waiting abnormally warm year with wet and capricious weather (2014 is recognized as the warmest in the history of meteorological observations; it is very likely that it
and provoked the current rapid activation of the hyperactive “girl”).
Moreover, usually the vagaries of El Niño last 6-8 months, but now they can drag on for 1-2 years.

Anatoly Khortitsky

Following a period of neutrality in the El Niño-La Niña cycle observed in mid-2011, the tropical Pacific began to cool in August, with weak to moderate La Niña observed from October to date.

“Mathematical model forecasts and expert interpretation suggest that La Niña is near maximum strength and is likely to slowly weaken in the coming months. However, existing methods do not allow predicting the situation beyond May, so it is unclear what situation will develop in the Pacific Ocean - whether it will be El Niño, La Niña or a neutral situation,” the report says.

Scientists note that La Niña 2011-2012 was significantly weaker than in 2010-2011. Models predict that temperatures in the Pacific will approach neutral between March and May 2012.

La Niña 2010 was accompanied by a decrease in cloud cover and increased trade winds. The decrease in pressure led to heavy rain in Australia, Indonesia and Southeast Asia. In addition, according to meteorologists, it is La Niña that is responsible for heavy rains in southern and drought in eastern equatorial Africa, as well as for the drought situation in the central regions of southwest Asia and South America.

El Niño (Spanish: El Niño - Baby, Boy) or Southern Oscillation (English: El Niño/La Niña - Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is a fluctuation in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, which has a noticeable effect on the climate. In a narrower sense, El Niño is a phase of the Southern Oscillation in which an area of ​​heated surface water moves eastward. At the same time, trade winds weaken or stop altogether, and upwelling slows down in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Peru. The opposite phase of oscillation is called La Niña (Spanish La Niña - Baby, Girl). The characteristic oscillation time is from 3 to 8 years, but the strength and duration of El Niño in reality varies greatly. Thus, in 1790-1793, 1828, 1876-1878, 1891, 1925-1926, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, powerful phases of El Niño were recorded, while, for example, in 1991-1992, 1993, 1994 this phenomenon , often repeating, was weakly expressed. El Niño 1997-1998 was so strong that it attracted the attention of the world community and the press. At the same time, theories about the connection of the Southern Oscillation with global climate change spread. Since the early 1980s, El Niño also occurred in 1986-1987 and 2002-2003.

Normal conditions along the western coast of Peru are determined by the cold Peruvian Current, which carries water from the south. Where the current turns west, along the equator, cold and plankton-rich waters rise from deep depressions, which contributes to active development life in the ocean. The cold current itself determines the aridity of the climate in this part of Peru, forming deserts. Trade winds drive the heated surface layer of water into the western zone of the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. In it, the water is heated to depths of 100-200 m. The Walker atmospheric circulation, manifested in the form of trade winds, coupled with low pressure over the Indonesian region, leads to the fact that in this place the level of the Pacific Ocean is 60 cm higher than in its eastern part . And the water temperature here reaches 29 - 30 °C versus 22 - 24 °C off the coast of Peru. However, everything changes with the onset of El Niño. The trade winds are weakening, the TTB is spreading, and water temperatures are rising across a vast area of ​​the Pacific Ocean. In the region of Peru, the cold current is replaced by a warm water mass moving from the west to the coast of Peru, upwelling weakens, fish die without food, and westerly winds bring humid air masses and rainfall to the deserts, even causing floods. The onset of El Niño reduces the activity of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

The first mention of the term "El Niño" dates back to 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrilo reported at the Congress of the Geographical Society in Lima that Peruvian sailors called the warm northerly current "El Niño" because it was most noticeable around Christmas. In 1893, Charles Todd suggested that droughts in India and Australia were occurring at the same time. Norman Lockyer also pointed out the same thing in 1904. The connection between the warm northerly current off the coast of Peru and floods in that country was reported in 1895 by Peset and Eguiguren. The phenomena of the Southern Oscillation were first described in 1923 by Gilbert Thomas Walker. He introduced the terms Southern Oscillation, El Niño and La Niña, and examined the zonal convection circulation in the atmosphere in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, which now received his name. For a long time Almost no attention was paid to the phenomenon, considering it regional. Only towards the end of the 20th century. The connection between El Niño and the planet’s climate has been clarified.

QUANTITATIVE DESCRIPTION

Currently, for a quantitative description of the phenomena, El Niño and La Niña are defined as temperature anomalies of the surface layer of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean lasting at least 5 months, expressed in a deviation of water temperature by 0.5 °C higher (El Niño) or lower (La Niña) side.

First signs of El Niño:

Increase in air pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.

A drop in pressure over Tahiti, over the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean.

Weakening of the trade winds in the South Pacific until they cease and the wind direction changes to the westerly.
Warm air mass in Peru, rain in the Peruvian deserts.

In itself, an increase in water temperature off the coast of Peru by 0.5 °C is considered only a condition for the occurrence of El Niño. Typically, such an anomaly can exist for several weeks and then disappear safely. And only a five-month anomaly, classified as an El Niño phenomenon, can cause significant damage to the region’s economy due to a drop in fish catches.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also used to describe El Niño. It is calculated as the difference in pressure over Tahiti and over Darwin (Australia). Negative index values ​​indicate the El Niño phase, and positive values ​​indicate the La Niña phase.

INFLUENCE OF EL NINO ON THE CLIMATE OF DIFFERENT REGIONS

In South America, the El Niño effect is most pronounced. This phenomenon typically causes warm and very humid summer periods (December to February) along the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador. When El Niño is strong, it causes severe flooding. This, for example, happened in January 2011. Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than usual periods, but mainly in the spring and early summer. Central Chile experiences mild winters with plenty of rain, while Peru and Bolivia occasionally experience winter snowfalls that are unusual for the region. Drier and warmer weather is observed in the Amazon Basin, Colombia and Central America. Humidity is falling in Indonesia, increasing the likelihood of forest fires. This also applies to the Philippines and northern Australia. From June to August, dry weather occurs in Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales and eastern Tasmania. In Antarctica, the western Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered with large amounts of snow and ice. At the same time, the pressure increases and becomes warmer. In North America, winters generally become warmer in the Midwest and Canada. Central and southern California, northwestern Mexico and the southeastern United States are becoming wetter, while the Pacific Northwest states are becoming drier. During La Niña, on the other hand, the Midwest becomes drier. El Niño also leads to a decrease in Atlantic hurricane activity. Eastern Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the White Nile Basin, experiences long rainy seasons from March to May. Droughts plague southern and central Africa from December to February, mainly Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.

An El Niño-like effect is sometimes observed in the Atlantic Ocean, where water along the equatorial coast of Africa becomes warmer and water off the coast of Brazil becomes colder. Moreover, there is a connection between this circulation and El Niño.

INFLUENCE OF EL NINO ON HEALTH AND SOCIETY

El Niño causes extreme weather conditions associated with cycles in the incidence of epidemic diseases. El Niño is associated with an increased risk of mosquito-borne diseases: malaria, dengue fever and Rift Valley fever. Malaria cycles are associated with El Niño in India, Venezuela and Colombia. There is an association with outbreaks of Australian encephalitis (Murray Valley Encephalitis - MVE) occurring in south-eastern Australia following heavy rainfall and flooding caused by La Niña. A notable example is the severe outbreak of Rift Valley fever that occurred due to El Niño following extreme rainfall events in northeastern Kenya and southern Somalia in 1997-98.

It is also believed that El Niño may be associated with the cyclical nature of wars and the emergence of civil conflicts in countries whose climate is influenced by El Niño. A study of data from 1950 to 2004 found that El Niño was associated with 21% of all civil conflicts during that period. Moreover, the risk of civil war during El Niño years is twice as high as during La Niña years. It is likely that the connection between climate and military action is mediated by crop failures, which often occur in hot years.

The climate phenomenon La Niña, associated with a drop in water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and affecting weather patterns across almost the entire globe, has disappeared and is not likely to return until the end of 2012, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.

The La Nina phenomenon (La Nina, “the girl” in Spanish) is characterized by an anomalous decrease in surface water temperature in the central and eastern part of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This process is the opposite of El Niño (El Nino, “the boy”), which, on the contrary, is associated with warming in the same zone. These states replace each other with a frequency of about a year.

Following a period of neutrality in the El Niño-La Niña cycle observed in mid-2011, the tropical Pacific began to cool in August, with weak to moderate La Niña observed from October to date. By early April, La Niña had completely disappeared, and neutral conditions are still observed in the equatorial Pacific, experts write.

“(Analysis of modeling results) suggests that La Niña is unlikely to return this year, while the probabilities of remaining neutral and El Niño occurring in the second half of the year are approximately equal,” the WMO said.

Both El Niño and La Niña influence circulation patterns of ocean and atmospheric currents, which in turn influence weather and climate across the globe, causing droughts in some regions and hurricanes and heavy rainfall in others.

The La Niña climate phenomenon that occurred in 2011 was so strong that it ultimately caused global sea levels to drop by as much as 5mm. With the advent of La Niña, there was a shift in Pacific surface temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns around the world, as terrestrial moisture began to leave the ocean and be directed to land in the form of rain in Australia, northern South America, and Southeast Asia .

The alternating dominance of the warm oceanic phase of the Southern Oscillation, El Niño, and the cold phase, La Niña, can change global sea levels so dramatically, but satellite data inexorably indicates that global levels have The waters still rise to a height of about 3 mm.
As soon as El Niño arrives, the rise in water levels begins to occur faster, but with a change in phases almost every five years, a diametrically opposite phenomenon is observed. The strength of the effect of a particular phase also depends on other factors and clearly reflects the general climate change towards its harshness. Many scientists around the world are studying both phases of the southern oscillation, as they contain many clues to what is happening on Earth and what awaits it.

A moderate to strong La Niña atmospheric phenomenon will continue in the tropical Pacific until April 2011. This is according to an El Niño/La Niña advisory issued on Monday by the World Meteorological Organization.

As the document highlights, all model-based forecasts predict a continuation or possible intensification of the La Niña phenomenon over the next 4-6 months, ITAR-TASS reports.

La Niña, which this year formed in June-July, replacing the El Niño phenomenon that ended in April, is characterized by unusually low water temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial parts of the Pacific Ocean. This disrupts normal tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns. El Niño is the opposite phenomenon, characterized by unusually high water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

The effects of these phenomena can be felt in many parts of the planet, expressed in floods, storms, droughts, increases or, conversely, decreases in temperature. Typically, La Niña results in heavy winter rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and severe droughts in Ecuador, northwestern Peru, and eastern equatorial Africa.
In addition, the phenomenon contributes to a decrease in global temperatures, and this is most noticeable from December to February in northeast Africa, Japan, southern Alaska, central and western parts Canada, southeast Brazil.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced today in Geneva that in August this year in the equator region of the Pacific Ocean was again noted climate phenomenon La Niña, which may increase in intensity and continue until the end of this year or the beginning of next year.

The latest WMO report on El Niño and La Niña phenomena states that the current La Niña event will peak later this year, but the intensity will be less than it was in the second half of 2010. Due to its uncertainty, WMO invites countries in the Pacific region to closely monitor its development and promptly report on possible droughts and floods due to it.

The La Niña phenomenon refers to the phenomenon of an anomalous long-term large-scale cooling of water in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, which gives rise to a global climate anomaly. The previous La Niña event led to spring drought along the western Pacific coast, including China.