El Niño is the most powerful current in the world's oceans (based on materials from Hongjua)

La Niña

Southern Oscillation And El Niño(Spanish) El Niño- Baby, Boy) is a global ocean-atmospheric phenomenon. Being a characteristic feature of the Pacific Ocean, El Niño and La Niña(Spanish) La Nina- Baby, Girl) represent temperature fluctuations of surface waters in the tropics of the eastern Pacific Ocean. The names for these phenomena, borrowed from the native Spanish and first coined in 1923 by Gilbert Thomas Walker, mean "baby" and "little one," respectively. Their influence on the climate of the southern hemisphere is difficult to overestimate. The Southern Oscillation (the atmospheric component of the phenomenon) reflects monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the difference in air pressure between the island of Tahiti and the city of Darwin in Australia.

The circulation named after Walker is a significant aspect of the Pacific phenomenon ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). ENSO is many interacting parts of one global system of ocean-atmospheric climate fluctuations that occur as a sequence of oceanic and atmospheric circulations. ENSO is the world's best known source of interannual weather and climate variability (3 to 8 years). ENSO has signatures in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

IN Pacific Ocean During significant warm events, El Niño warms up and expands across much of the Pacific tropics and becomes directly correlated with SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) intensity. While ENSO events occur primarily between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, ENSO events in the Atlantic Ocean lag behind the former by 12 to 18 months. Most of the countries that experience ENSO events are developing ones, with economies that are heavily dependent on the agricultural and fishing sectors. New capabilities to predict the onset of ENSO events in three oceans could have global socioeconomic implications. Since ENSO is a global and natural part of the Earth's climate, it is important to know whether changes in intensity and frequency could be a result of global warming. Low frequency changes have already been detected. Interdecadal ENSO modulations may also exist.

El Niño and La Niña

El Niño and La Niña are officially defined as long-lasting marine surface temperature anomalies greater than 0.5°C crossing the central tropical Pacific Ocean. When a condition of +0.5 °C (-0.5 °C) is observed for a period of up to five months, it is classified as an El Niño (La Niña) condition. If the anomaly persists for five months or longer, it is classified as an El Niño (La Niña) episode. The latter occurs at irregular intervals of 2-7 years and usually lasts one or two years.

The first signs of El Niño are as follows:

Increase in air pressure above Indian Ocean, Indonesia and Australia.
A drop in air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Trade winds in the South Pacific are weakening or heading east.
Warm air appears near Peru, causing rain in the deserts.
Warm water spreads from the western part of the Pacific Ocean to the eastern. It brings rain with it, causing it to occur in areas that are usually dry.

Warm El Niño current, consisting of plankton-poor tropical water and heated by its eastern flow in the Equatorial Current, replaces the cold, plankton-rich waters of the Humboldt Current, also known as the Peruvian Current, which contains large populations commercial fish. Most years, the warming lasts only a few weeks or months, after which weather patterns return to normal and fish catches increase. However, when El Niño conditions last for several months, more extensive ocean warming occurs and its economic impact on local fisheries for the external market can be severe.

The Volcker circulation is visible on the surface as easterly trade winds, which move water and air heated by the sun westward. It also creates oceanic upwelling off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, bringing cold plankton-rich waters to the surface, increasing fish populations. The western equatorial Pacific Ocean is characterized by warm, humid weather and low atmospheric pressure. The accumulated moisture falls in the form of typhoons and storms. As a result, in this place the ocean is 60 cm higher than in its eastern part.

In the Pacific Ocean, La Niña is characterized by unusual cold temperature in the eastern equatorial part compared to El Niño, which, in turn, is characterized by unusual high temperature in the same region. Atlantic tropical cyclone activity generally increases during La Niña. A La Niña condition often occurs after an El Niño, especially when the latter is very strong.

Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

The Southern Oscillation Index is calculated from monthly or seasonal fluctuations in the air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin.

Long-term negative values SOIs often signal El Niño episodes. These negative values typically accompany continued warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, decreased strength of the Pacific trade winds, and decreased rainfall in eastern and northern Australia.

Positive SOI values are associated with strong Pacific trade winds and warming water temperatures in northern Australia, well known as a La Niña episode. The waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become colder during this time. Together this increases the likelihood of more rainfall than normal in eastern and northern Australia.

Extensive influence of El Niño conditions

As El Niño's warm waters fuel storms, it creates increased precipitation in the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

In South America, the El Niño effect is more pronounced than in North America. El Niño is associated with warm and very wet summer periods (December-February) along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing severe flooding whenever the event is severe. The effects during February, March, April may become critical. Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than normal conditions, but mainly during the spring and early summer. The central region of Chile gets a mild winter with a large number rains, and the Peruvian-Bolivian Plateau sometimes experiences winter snowfalls that are unusual for this region. Drier and warm weather observed in the Amazon Basin, Colombia and Central America.

The direct effects of El Niño are reducing humidity in Indonesia, increasing the likelihood of wildfires, in the Philippines and northern Australia. Also in June-August, dry weather is observed in the regions of Australia: Queensland, Victoria, New South Wales and eastern Tasmania.

The western Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Land, Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas are covered with large amounts of snow and ice during El Niño. The latter two and the Wedell Sea become warmer and are under higher atmospheric pressure.

In North America, winters are generally warmer than normal in the Midwest and Canada, while central and southern California, northwestern Mexico and the southeastern United States are getting wetter. The Pacific Northwest states, in other words, dry out during El Niño. Conversely, during La Niña, the US Midwest dries out. El Niño is also associated with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

Eastern Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the White Nile Basin, experiences long periods of rain from March to May. Droughts plague southern and central Africa from December to February, mainly Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana.

Warm Pool of the Western Hemisphere

A study of climate data showed that in approximately half summer periods After El Niño, there is an unusual warming of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool. This influences the weather in the region and appears to have a connection to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Atlantic effect

An El Niño-like effect is sometimes observed in the Atlantic Ocean, where water along the equatorial African coast becomes warmer and water off the coast of Brazil becomes colder. This can be attributed to Volcker circulations over South America.

Non-climatic effects

Along the East Coast South America El Niño reduces the upwelling of cold, plankton-rich water that supports large fish populations, which in turn maintain abundance seabirds, whose droppings support the fertilizer industry.

Local fishing industry along coastline may experience fish shortages during prolonged El Niño events. The world's largest fisheries collapse due to overfishing, which occurred in 1972 during El Niño, led to a decline in the Peruvian anchovy population. During the events of 1982-83, populations of southern horse mackerel and anchovies declined. Although the number of shells in warm water increased, hake went deeper into cold water, and shrimp and sardines went south. But the catch of some other fish species has been increased, e.g. common horse mackerel increased its population during warm events.

Changing locations and types of fish due to changing conditions have presented challenges for the fishing industry. The Peruvian sardine has moved towards the Chilean coast due to El Niño. Other conditions have only led to further complications, such as the Chilean government creating fishing restrictions in 1991.

It is postulated that El Niño led to the extinction of the Mochico Indian tribe and other tribes of the pre-Columbian Peruvian culture.

Causes that give rise to El Niño

The mechanisms that may cause El Niño events are still being researched. It is difficult to find patterns that can reveal causes or allow predictions to be made.

History of the theory

The first mention of the term "El Niño" dates back to the year when Captain Camilo Carrilo reported at the Congress of the Geographical Society in Lima that Peruvian sailors called the warm northerly current "El Niño" because it was most noticeable around Christmas. However, even then the phenomenon was interesting only because of its biological impact on the efficiency of the fertilizer industry.

Normal conditions along the western Peruvian coast are a cold southerly current (Peru Current) with upwelling water; plankton upwelling leads to active ocean productivity; cold currents lead to a very dry climate on earth. Similar conditions exist everywhere (California Current, Bengal Current). So replacing it with a warm northern current leads to a decrease in biological activity in the ocean and to heavy rains, leading to flooding, on land. An association with flooding was reported in Pezet and Eguiguren.

Towards the end of the nineteenth century there was increased interest in predicting climate anomalies (for food production) in India and Australia. Charles Todd suggested that droughts in India and Australia occur at the same time. Norman Lockyer pointed out the same thing in Gilbert Volcker who first coined the term "Southern Oscillation".

For most of the twentieth century, El Niño was considered a large local phenomenon.

History of the phenomenon

ENSO conditions have occurred every 2-7 years for at least the last 300 years, but most of them have been weak.

Large ENSO events occurred in - , , - , , - , - and - 1998 .

The last El Niño events occurred in -, -, , , 1997-1998 and -2003.

The 1997-1998 El Niño in particular was strong and brought international attention to the phenomenon, while the 1997-1998 El Niño was unusual in that El Niño occurred very frequently (but mostly weakly).

El Niño in the history of civilization

Scientists tried to establish why, at the turn of the 10th century AD, the two largest civilizations of that time ceased to exist almost simultaneously on opposite ends of the earth. We are talking about the Mayan Indians and the fall of the Chinese Tang Dynasty, which was followed by a period of internecine strife.

Both civilizations were in monsoon regions, the moisture of which depends on seasonal precipitation. However, at this time, apparently, the rainy season was not able to provide enough moisture for the development of agriculture.

The ensuing drought and subsequent famine led to the decline of these civilizations, researchers believe. They associate climate change with the natural phenomenon "El Niño", which means temperature fluctuations surface waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean in tropical latitudes. This leads to large-scale disturbances in atmospheric circulation, causing droughts in traditionally wet regions and floods in dry ones.

Scientists came to these conclusions by studying the nature of sedimentary deposits in China and Mesoamerica dating back to this period. The last emperor of the Tang Dynasty died in 907 AD, and the last known Mayan calendar dates back to 903.

Literature

Cesar N. Caviedes, 2001. El Niño in History: Storming Through the Ages(University Press of Florida)
Brian Fagan, 1999. Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations(Basic Books)
Michael H. Glantz, 2001. Currents of change, ISBN 0-521-78672-X
Mike Davis Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World(2001), ISBN 1-85984-739-0

Climate, Climatology

In the World Ocean, special phenomena (processes) are observed that can be considered anomalous. These phenomena extend over vast water areas and have great ecological and geographical significance. Such anomalous phenomena covering the ocean and atmosphere are El Niño and La Niña. However, a distinction must be made between the El Niño current and the El Niño phenomenon.

El Niño current - a constant current, small on an oceanic scale, off the northwestern coast of South America. It can be traced from the Gulf of Panama area and follows south along the coasts of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru to about 5 0 S However, approximately once every 6 - 7 years (but it happens more or less often), the El Niño current spreads far to the south, sometimes to northern and even central Chile (up to 35-40 0 S). The warm waters of El Niño push the cold waters of the Peru-Chile Current and coastal upwelling into the open ocean. Ocean surface temperatures in the coastal zone of Ecuador and Peru rise to 21–23 0 C, and sometimes up to 25–29 0 C. The anomalous development of this warm current, which lasts almost six months - from December to May and which usually appears around Catholic Christmas, is called "El Niño" - from the Spanish "El Nico - the baby (Christ)." It was first noticed in 1726.

This purely oceanological process has tangible and often catastrophic environmental consequences on land. Due to the sharp warming of water in the coastal zone (by 8-14 0 C), the amount of oxygen and, accordingly, the biomass of cold-loving species of phyto- and zooplankton, the main food of anchovies and other commercial fish of the Peruvian region, significantly decreases. A huge number of fish either die or disappear from this water area. Peruvian anchovy catches fall 10 times in such years. After the fish, the birds that feed on them also disappear. As a result of this natural disaster, South American fishermen are going bankrupt. In previous years, the abnormal development of El Niño led to famine in several countries on the Pacific coast of South America. . In addition, during the passage of El Niño deteriorate sharply weather conditions in Ecuador, Peru and northern Chile, where powerful downpours occur, leading to catastrophic floods, mudflows and soil erosion on the western slopes of the Andes.

However, the consequences of the anomalous development of the El Niño current are felt only on the Pacific coast of South America.

The main culprit for the increasing frequency in recent years weather anomalies, which covered almost all continents, are called El Niño/La Niña phenomenon, manifested in a significant change in the temperature of the upper layer of water in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which causes intense turbulent heat and moisture exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere.

Currently, the term "El Niño" is used in relation to situations where abnormally warm surface waters occupy not only the coastal area near South America, but also most of the tropical zone Pacific Ocean up to the 180th meridian.

Under normal weather conditions, when the El Niño phase has not yet arrived, warm surface ocean waters are held by easterly winds - trade winds - in the western zone of the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the so-called tropical warm pool (TTB) is formed. The depth of this warm layer of water reaches 100-200 meters, and it is the formation of such a large heat reservoir that is the main and necessary condition for the transition to the El Niño phenomenon. At this time, the water surface temperature in the west of the ocean in the tropical zone is 29-30°, while in the east it is 22-24°C. This difference in temperature is explained by the rise of cold deep waters to the surface of the ocean off the west coast of South America. At the same time, in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, a water area with a huge reserve of heat is formed and equilibrium is observed in the ocean-atmosphere system. This is a situation of normal balance.

Approximately once every 3-7 years, the balance is disrupted, and the warm waters of the western Pacific Ocean move eastward, and over a huge area of water in the equatorial eastern part of the ocean there is a sharp increase in the temperature of the surface layer of water. The El Niño phase begins, the beginning of which is marked by sudden heavy westerly winds (Fig. 22). They reverse the usual weak trade winds over the warm western Pacific and prevent cold deep waters off the west coast of South America from rising to the surface. The atmospheric phenomena accompanying El Niño were called the Southern Oscillation (ENSO - El Niño - Southern Oscillation), as they were first observed in the Southern Hemisphere. Due to the warm water surface, intense convective rise of air is observed in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, and not in the western part, as usual. As a result, the area of heavy rainfall shifts from the western to the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rain and hurricanes hit Central and South America.

Rice. 22. Normal conditions and the onset phase of El Niño

Over the past 25 years, there have been five active El Niño cycles: 1982-83, 1986-87, 1991-1993, 1994-95 and 1997-98.

The mechanism for the development of the La Niña phenomenon (in Spanish La Niсa - “girl”) - the “antipode” of El Niño is somewhat different. The La Niña phenomenon manifests itself as a decrease in surface water temperature below the climate norm in the eastern equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean. The weather is unusually cold here. During the formation of La Niña, easterly winds from the west coast of the Americas increase significantly. Winds shift the zone warm water(TTB), and the “tongue” of cold waters stretches for 5000 kilometers in exactly the place (Ecuador - Samoa Islands) where during El Niño there should be a belt of warm waters. This belt of warm waters moves to the western Pacific Ocean, causing powerful monsoon rains in Indochina, India and Australia. At the same time, the countries of the Caribbean and the United States suffer from droughts, dry winds and tornadoes.

La Niña cycles occurred in 1984-85, 1988-89 and 1995-96.

Although the atmospheric processes that develop during El Niño or La Niña mostly operate in tropical latitudes, their consequences are felt throughout the planet and are accompanied by environmental disasters: hurricanes and rainstorms, droughts and fires.

El Niño occurs on average once every three to four years, La Niña - once every six to seven years. Both phenomena bring with them an increased number of hurricanes, but during La Niña there are three to four times more storms than during El Niño.

The occurrence of El Niño or La Niña can be predicted if:

1. Near the equator in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, an area of warmer water than usual (El Niño phenomenon) or colder water (La Niña phenomenon) forms.

2. The atmospheric pressure trend between the port of Darwin (Australia) and the island of Tahiti (Pacific Ocean) is compared. During El Niño, pressure will be low in Tahiti and high in Darwin. During La Niña it is the other way around.

Research has established that the El Niño phenomenon is not only simple coordinated fluctuations in surface pressure and ocean water temperature. El Niño and La Niña are the most pronounced manifestations of interannual climate variability on a global scale. These phenomena represent large-scale changes in ocean temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and vertical air movements over the tropical Pacific Ocean and lead to abnormal weather conditions around the globe.

During El Niño years in the tropics, precipitation increases over areas east of the central Pacific Ocean and decreases over northern Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines. In December-February, above-normal precipitation is observed along the coast of Ecuador, in northwestern Peru, over southern Brazil, central Argentina and over equatorial, eastern Africa, during June-August in the western United States and over central Chile.

El Niño is also responsible for large-scale air temperature anomalies around the world.

During El Niño years, energy transfer into the troposphere of tropical and temperate latitudes increases. This is manifested in an increase in thermal contrasts between tropical and polar latitudes, and intensification of cyclonic and anticyclonic activity in temperate latitudes.

During El Niño years:

1. The Honolulu and Asian anticyclones are weakened;

2. The summer depression over southern Eurasia is filled, which is the main reason for the weakening of the monsoon over India;

3. The winter Aleutian and Icelandic lows are more developed than usual.

During La Niña years, precipitation increases over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, Indonesia, and the Philippines and is almost completely absent in the eastern part of the ocean. More precipitation falls in northern South America, South Africa and southeastern Australia. Drier than normal conditions are observed along the coast of Ecuador, northwestern Peru and equatorial eastern Africa. There are large-scale temperature excursions around the world, with the largest number of areas experiencing abnormally cool conditions.

Over the past decade, great strides have been made in the comprehensive study of the El Niño phenomenon. This phenomenon does not depend on solar activity, but is associated with features in the planetary interaction of the ocean and atmosphere. A connection has been established between El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (El Niño-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) of the surface atmospheric pressure in southern latitudes. This change in atmospheric pressure leads to significant changes in the trade wind system and monsoon winds and, accordingly, surface ocean currents.

The El Niño phenomenon is increasingly affecting the global economy. So, this phenomenon of 1982-83. provoked terrible rainfalls in the countries of South America, caused enormous losses, and the economies of many countries were paralyzed. The effects of El Niño were felt by half of the world's population.

The strongest El Niño of 1997-1998 was the strongest during the entire observation period. It caused the most powerful hurricane in the history of meteorological observations, sweeping over the countries of South and Central America. Hurricane winds and downpours swept away hundreds of houses, entire areas were flooded, and vegetation was destroyed. In Peru, in the Atacama Desert, where rains generally occur once every ten years, a huge lake with an area of tens of square kilometers has formed. Unusually warm weather was recorded in South Africa, southern Mozambique, Madagascar, and unprecedented drought reigned in Indonesia and the Philippines, leading to forest fires. In India there were virtually no ordinary monsoon rains, while in arid Somalia the amount of precipitation was significantly higher than normal. The total damage from the disaster amounted to about 50 billion dollars.

El Niño 1997-1998 significantly affected the average global air temperature of the Earth: it exceeded normal by 0.44°C. In the same year, 1998, the highest average annual air temperature was recorded on Earth for all years of instrumental observations.

The collected data indicate the regular occurrence of El Niño with an interval ranging from 4 to 12 years. The duration of El Niño itself varies from 6–8 months to 3 years, most often it is 1–1.5 years. This great variability makes it difficult to predict the phenomenon.

The influence of the climatic phenomena El Niño and La Niña, and therefore the number of unfavorable weather conditions on the planet, according to climate specialists, will increase. Therefore, humanity must closely monitor and study these climate phenomena.

EL NINO CURRENT

EL NINO CURRENT, a warm surface current that sometimes (after about 7-11 years) arises in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and heads towards the South American coast. It is believed that the occurrence of the current is associated with irregular fluctuations in weather conditions on the globe. The name is given to the current from the Spanish word for the Christ child, as it most often occurs around Christmas. The flow of warm water prevents plankton-rich water from rising to the surface cold water from Antarctica off the coast of Peru and Chile. As a result, fish are not sent to these areas to feed, and local fishermen are left without a catch. El Niño can also have more far-reaching, sometimes catastrophic, consequences. Its occurrence is associated with short-term fluctuations in climatic conditions all over the world; possible drought in Australia and other places, floods and harsh winters in North America, stormy tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean. Some scientists have expressed concerns that global warming could cause El Niño to occur more frequently.

The combined influence of land, sea and air on weather conditions sets a certain rhythm of climate change on a global scale. For example, in the Pacific Ocean (A), winds typically blow from east to west (1) along the equator, -pulling- solar-heated surface layers of water into the basin north of Australia and thereby lowering the thermocline - the boundary between warm surface and cooler deep layers water (2). Above these warm waters high cumulus clouds, which cause rain during the summer wet season (3). Cooler waters rich in food resources come to the surface off the coast of South America (4), large schools of fish (anchovies) flock to them, and this, in turn, is based on a developed fishing system. The weather over these cold water areas is dry. Every 3-5 years, changes occur in the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere. The climate pattern is reversed (B) - a phenomenon called El Niño. Trade winds either weaken or reverse their direction (5), and warm surface waters that “accumulated” in the western Pacific Ocean flow back, and the water temperature off the coast of South America rises by 2-3°C (6) . As a result, the thermocline (temperature gradient) decreases (7), and all this greatly affects the climate. In the year when El Niño occurs, droughts and forest fires rage in Australia, and floods in Bolivia and Peru. Warm waters off the coast of South America are pushing deeper into the layers of cold water that support plankton, causing the fishing industry to suffer.

Scientific and technical encyclopedic dictionary.

See what “EL NINO CURRENT” is in other dictionaries:

The Southern Oscillation and El Niño (Spanish: El Niño Baby, Boy) is a global ocean-atmospheric phenomenon. As a characteristic feature of the Pacific Ocean, El Niño and La Niña (Spanish: La Niña Baby, Girl) are temperature fluctuations... ... Wikipedia

Not to be confused with Columbus's La Niña caravel. El Niño (Spanish: El Niño Baby, Boy) or Southern Oscillation (English: El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation, ENSO) fluctuation in the temperature of the surface layer of water in ... ... Wikipedia

- (El Niño), a warm seasonal surface current in the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Ecuador and Peru. It develops sporadically in summer when cyclones pass near the equator. * * * EL NINO EL NINO (Spanish: El Nino “Christ Child”), warm... ... Encyclopedic Dictionary

Warm surface seasonal current in the Pacific Ocean, off the coast of South America. It appears once every three or seven years after the disappearance of the cold current and lasts for at least a year. Usually originates in December, closer to the Christmas holidays,... ... Geographical encyclopedia

- (El Nino) warm seasonal surface current in the eastern Pacific Ocean, off the coast of Ecuador and Peru. It develops sporadically in the summer when cyclones pass near the equator... Big Encyclopedic Dictionary

El Niño- Anomalous warming of ocean water off the west coast of South America, replacing the cold Humboldt Current, which brings heavy rainfall to the coastal areas of Peru and Chile and occurs from time to time as a result of the influence of southeastern... ... Dictionary of Geography

- (El Nino) warm seasonal current of surface waters of low salinity in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. Distributed in the summer of the Southern Hemisphere along the coast of Ecuador from the equator to 5 7 ° S. w. In some years, E.N. intensifies and... ... Great Soviet Encyclopedia

El Niño- (El Niňo)El Nino, a complex climatic phenomenon that occurs irregularly in the equatorial latitudes of the Pacific Ocean. Name E. N. initially referred to the warm ocean current, which annually, usually at the end of December, approaches the shores of the northern... ... Countries of the world. Dictionary

The first time I heard the word “El Niño” was in the United States in 1998. At that time, this natural phenomenon was well known to Americans, but almost unknown in our country. And it’s not surprising, because El Niño originates in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America and greatly influences the weather in the southern states of the United States. El Niño(translated from Spanish El Niño- baby, boy) in the terminology of climatologists - one of the phases of the so-called Southern Oscillation, i.e. fluctuations in the temperature of the surface layer of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, during which the area of heated surface water shifts to the east. (For reference: the opposite phase of oscillation - the displacement of surface waters to the west - is called La Niña (La Nina- baby, girl)). The El Niño phenomenon, which occurs periodically in the ocean, greatly affects the climate of the entire planet. One of the largest El Niño events occurred in 1997-1998. It was so strong that it attracted the attention of the world community and the press. At the same time, theories about the connection between the Southern Oscillation and global changes climate. According to experts, the warming phenomenon El Niño is one of the main driving forces of natural variability in our climate.

In 2015 The World Meteorological Organization reported that the emerging ahead of schedule and dubbed the "Bruce Lee" El Niño could be one of the strongest since 1950. Its appearance was expected last year, based on data on rising air temperatures, but these models did not materialize, and El Niño did not manifest itself.

In early November, the American agency NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) released a detailed report on the state of the Southern Oscillation and analyzed the possible development of El Niño in 2015-2016. The report is published on the NOAA website. In conclusions of this document It is said that currently there are all the conditions for the formation of El Niño, the average surface temperature of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean (SST) has increased values and continues to rise. The probability that El Niño will develop throughout the winter of 2015-2016 is 95% . A gradual decline of El Niño is predicted in the spring of 2016. The report published an interesting graph showing the change in SST since 1951. Blue areas correspond to low temperatures (La Niña), orange indicates high temperatures (El Niño). The previous strong increase in SST of 2°C was observed in 1998.

Data obtained in October 2015 indicate that the SST anomaly at the epicenter already reaches 3 °C.

Although the causes of El Niño are not yet fully understood, it is known that it begins with trade winds weakening over several months. A series of waves move across the Pacific Ocean along the equator and create a body of warm water off South America, where the ocean normally has low temperatures due to the rise of deep ocean waters to the surface. Weakening trade winds coupled with strong westerly winds countering them could also create a paired cyclone (south and north of the equator), which is another sign of a future El Niño.

While studying the causes of El Niño, geologists noticed that the phenomenon occurs in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, where a powerful rift system has formed. American researcher D. Walker found a clear connection between increased seismicity on the East Pacific Rise and El Niño. Russian scientist G. Kochemasov saw another curious detail: the relief fields of ocean warming almost one to one repeat the structure of the earth's core.

One of the interesting versions belongs to the Russian scientist - Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences Vladimir Syvorotkin. It was first expressed back in 1998. According to the scientist, powerful centers of hydrogen-methane degassing are located in hot spots of the ocean. Or simply - sources of constant release of gases from the bottom. Their visible signs are thermal water outlets, black and white smokers. In the area of the coast of Peru and Chile, during El Niño years there is a massive release of hydrogen sulfide. The water is boiling and there is a terrible smell. At the same time, an amazing power is pumped into the atmosphere: approximately 450 million megawatts.

The El Niño phenomenon is now being studied and discussed more and more intensively. A team of researchers from the German National Center for Geosciences concluded that mysterious disappearance Mayan civilization in Central America may have been caused by strong climate changes caused by El Niño. At the turn of the 9th and 10th centuries AD, the two largest civilizations of that time ceased to exist on opposite ends of the earth almost simultaneously. We are talking about the Mayan Indians and the fall of the Chinese Tang Dynasty, which was followed by a period of internecine strife. Both civilizations were in monsoon regions, the moisture of which depends on seasonal precipitation. However, a time came when the rainy season was unable to provide sufficient moisture for the development of agriculture. The drought and subsequent famine led to the decline of these civilizations, researchers believe. Scientists came to these conclusions by studying the nature of sedimentary deposits in China and Mesoamerica dating back to this period. The last emperor of the Tang Dynasty died in 907 AD, and the last known Mayan calendar dates back to 903.

Climatologists and meteorologists say that El Niño2015, which will peak between November 2015 and January 2016, will be one of the strongest. El Niño will lead to large-scale disturbances in atmospheric circulation, which could cause droughts in traditionally wet regions and floods in dry ones.

A phenomenal phenomenon, which is considered one of the manifestations of the developing El Niño, is now observed in South America. The Atacama Desert, which is located in Chile and is one of the driest places on Earth, is covered with flowers.

This desert is rich in deposits of nitrate, iodine, table salt and copper; for four centuries there has been no significant precipitation. The reason is that the Peruvian Current cools the lower layers of the atmosphere and creates a temperature inversion that prevents precipitation. Rain falls here once every few decades. However, in 2015, the Atacama was hit by unusually heavy rainfall. As a result, dormant bulbs and rhizomes (horizontally growing underground roots) sprouted. The faded plains of the Atacama were covered with yellow, red, purple and white flowers - nolans, beaumaries, rhodophials, fuchsias and hollyhocks. The desert first bloomed in March, after unexpectedly intense rains caused flooding in the Atacama and killed about 40 people. Now the plants have bloomed for the second time in a year, before the start of the southern summer.

What will El Niño 2015 bring? A powerful El Niño is expected to bring welcome rainfall to dry areas of the United States. In other countries, its effect may be the opposite. In the western Pacific Ocean, El Niño creates high atmospheric pressure, bringing dry and sunny weather to large areas of Australia, Indonesia, and sometimes even India. The influence of El Niño on Russia has so far been limited. It is believed that under the influence of El Niño in October 1997, temperatures in Western Siberia reached above 20 degrees, and then they started talking about the retreat of permafrost to the north. In August 2000, Emergencies Ministry specialists attributed the series of hurricanes and rainstorms that swept across the country to the impact of the El Niño phenomenon.

The natural phenomenon El Niño, which took place in 1997-1998, had no equal in scale in the entire history of observations. What is this mysterious phenomenon that has caused so much noise and attracted close attention from the media? mass media?

In scientific terms, El Niño is a complex of interdependent changes in thermobaric and chemical parameters of the ocean and atmosphere, taking on the character of natural disasters. According to reference literature, it is a warm current that sometimes occurs for unknown reasons off the coast of Ecuador, Peru and Chile. Translated from Spanish, "El Niño" means "baby". Peruvian fishermen gave it this name because warming waters and associated mass fish kills usually occur at the end of December and coincide with Christmas. Our magazine already wrote about this phenomenon in No. 1 in 1993, but since that time researchers have accumulated a lot of new information.

NORMAL SITUATION

To understand the anomalous nature of the phenomenon, let us first consider the usual (standard) climate situation off the South American coast of the Pacific Ocean. It is quite peculiar and is determined by the Peruvian Current, which carries cold waters from Antarctica along the western coast of South America to the Galapagos Islands lying on the equator. Usually the trade winds blowing here from the Atlantic, crossing the high-mountain barrier of the Andes, leave moisture on their eastern slopes. And therefore the western coast of South America is a dry rocky desert, where rain is extremely rare - sometimes it does not fall for years. When the trade winds collect so much moisture that they carry it to the western shores of the Pacific Ocean, they form here the predominant westerly direction of surface currents, causing a surge of water off the coast. It is unloaded by the counter-trade Cromwell Current in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, which covers a 400-kilometer strip here and at depths of 50-300 m transports huge masses of water back to the east.

The attention of specialists is attracted by the colossal biological productivity of coastal Peruvian-Chilean waters. Here, in a small area, constituting a fraction of a percent of the entire water area of the World Ocean, the annual production of fish (mainly anchovy) exceeds 20% of the global total. Its abundance attracts huge flocks of fish-eating birds - cormorants, gannets, pelicans. And in areas where they accumulate, colossal masses of guano (bird droppings) - a valuable nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizer - are concentrated; Its deposits, ranging in thickness from 50 to 100 m, became the object of industrial development and export.

CATASTROPHE

During El Niño years, the situation changes dramatically. First, the water temperature rises by several degrees and mass death or departure of fish from this water area begins, and as a result, birds disappear. Then, in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, atmospheric pressure drops, clouds appear above it, trade winds subside, and air flows over the entire equatorial zone of the ocean change direction. Now they are moving from west to east, carrying moisture from the Pacific region and dumping it on the Peruvian-Chilean coast.

Events are developing especially catastrophically at the foot of the Andes, which now block the path of the western winds and receive all their moisture onto their slopes. As a result, floods, mudflows, and floods are raging in a narrow strip of rocky coastal deserts on the western coast (at the same time, the territories of the Western Pacific region are suffering from terrible drought: tropical forests are burning in Indonesia and New Guinea, and agricultural yields are falling sharply in Australia). To top it all off, so-called “red tides” are developing from the Chilean coast to California, caused by the rapid growth of microscopic algae.

So, the chain of catastrophic events begins with a noticeable warming of surface waters in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, which lately successfully used to predict El Niño. A network of buoy stations has been installed in this water area; with their help, the temperature of ocean water is constantly measured, and the data obtained is promptly transmitted via satellites to research centers. As a result, it was possible to warn in advance about the onset of the most powerful El Niño known to date - in 1997-98.

At the same time, the reason for the heating of ocean water, and therefore the occurrence of El Niño itself, is still not completely clear. Oceanographers explain the appearance of warm water south of the equator by a change in the direction of the prevailing winds, while meteorologists consider the change in winds to be a consequence of heating the water. Thus, a kind of vicious circle is created.

To get closer to understanding the genesis of El Niño, let us pay attention to a number of circumstances that are usually overlooked by climate specialists.

EL NINO DEGASATION SCENARIO

For geologists, the following fact is absolutely obvious: El Niño is developing over one of the most geologically active areas of the world rift system - the East Pacific Rise, where maximum speed spreading (spreading of the ocean floor) reaches 12-15 cm/year. In the axial zone of this underwater ridge, a very high heat flow from the earth’s interior is noted, manifestations of modern basaltic volcanism are known here, thermal water outlets and traces of the intensive process of modern ore formation in the form of numerous black and white “smokers” were discovered.

In the water area between 20 and 35 south. w. Nine hydrogen jets were recorded at the bottom - the release of this gas from the bowels of the earth. In 1994, an international expedition discovered the world's most powerful hydrothermal system here. In its gas emanations, the 3 He/4 He isotope ratios turned out to be abnormally high, which means: the source of degassing is located at great depth.

A similar situation is typical for other “hot spots” on the planet - Iceland, Hawaii, and the Red Sea. There, at the bottom there are powerful centers of hydrogen-methane degassing and above them, most often in the Northern Hemisphere, it is destroyed ozone layer
, which gives grounds to apply the model I created for the destruction of the ozone layer by hydrogen and methane flows to El Niño.

This is roughly how this process begins and develops. Hydrogen, released from the ocean floor from the rift valley of the East Pacific Rise (its sources were instrumentally discovered there) and reaching the surface, reacts with oxygen. As a result, heat is generated, which begins to warm up the water. For oxidative reactions the conditions here are very favorable: the surface layer of water is enriched with oxygen during wave interaction with the atmosphere.

However, the question arises: can hydrogen coming from the bottom reach the ocean surface in noticeable quantities? A positive answer was given by the results of American researchers who discovered twice the content of this gas in the air over the Gulf of California, compared to the background level. But here at the bottom there are hydrogen-methane sources with a total flow rate of 1.6 x 10 8 m 3 /year.

Hydrogen rising from water depths into the stratosphere, forms an ozone hole into which ultraviolet and infrared radiation “falls” solar radiation. Falling onto the surface of the ocean, it intensifies the heating of its upper layer that has begun (due to the oxidation of hydrogen). Most likely, it is the additional energy of the Sun that is the main and determining factor in this process. The role of oxidative reactions in heating is more problematic. This could not be discussed if it were not for the significant (from 36 to 32.7% o) desalination of ocean water that occurs simultaneously with it. The latter is probably accomplished by the very addition of water that is formed during the oxidation of hydrogen.

Due to the heating of the surface layer of the ocean, the solubility of CO 2 in it decreases, and it is released into the atmosphere. For example, during the El Niño of 1982-83. An additional 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide entered the air. Water evaporation also increases, and clouds appear over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Both water vapor and CO 2 are greenhouse gases; they absorb thermal radiation and become an excellent accumulator of additional energy coming through the ozone hole.

Gradually the process is gaining momentum. Anomalous heating of the air leads to a decrease in pressure, and a cyclonic region forms over the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean. It is this that breaks the standard trade wind pattern of atmospheric dynamics in the area and “sucks” air from the western part of the Pacific Ocean. Following the subsidence of the trade winds, the surge of water off the Peruvian-Chilean coast decreases and the equatorial Cromwell countercurrent ceases to operate. Strong heating of water leads to the formation of typhoons, which normal years- very rare (due to the cooling influence of the Peruvian Current). From 1980 to 1989, ten typhoons occurred here, seven of them in 1982-83, when El Niño raged.

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTIVITY

Why is biological productivity so high off the west coast of South America? According to experts, it is the same as in the abundantly “fertilized” fish ponds of Asia, and 50 thousand times higher (!) than in other parts of the Pacific Ocean, if calculated by the number of fish caught. Traditionally, this phenomenon is explained by upwelling - a wind-driven movement of warm water from the shore, forcing cold water enriched with nutritional components, mainly nitrogen and phosphorus, to rise from the depths. During El Niño years, when the wind changes direction, upwelling is interrupted, and therefore, nutrient water stops flowing. As a result, fish and birds die or migrate due to starvation.

All this resembles a perpetual motion machine: the abundance of life in surface waters is explained by the supply of nutrients from below, and their excess below is explained by the abundance of life above, because dying organic matter settles to the bottom. However, what is primary here, what gives impetus to such a cycle? Why does it not dry up, although, judging by the power of the guano deposits, it has been active for millennia?

The mechanism of wind upwelling itself is not very clear. The associated rise in deep water is usually determined by measuring its temperature on profiles different levels oriented perpendicular to the coastline. Isotherms are then constructed that show the same low temperatures near the shore and at great depths away from it. And in the end they conclude that cold waters are rising. But it is known: near the shore low temperature is caused by the Peruvian Current, so the described method for determining the rise of deep waters is hardly correct. Finally, another ambiguity: the profiles mentioned are built across the coastline, and the prevailing winds here blow along it.

I do not intend to subvert the concept of wind upwelling - it is based on an understandable physical phenomenon and has the right to life. However, upon closer acquaintance with it in this area of the ocean, all of the listed problems inevitably arise. Therefore, I propose a different explanation for the anomalous biological productivity off the western coast of South America: it is again determined by the degassing of the earth’s interior.

In fact, not the entire Peruvian-Chilean coastal strip is equally productive, as it should be under the influence of climatic upwelling. There are two separate “spots” here - northern and southern, and their position is controlled by tectonic factors. The first is located above a powerful fault extending from the ocean to the continent south of the Mendana fault (6-8 o S) and parallel to it. The second spot, somewhat smaller in size, is located just north of the Nazca Ridge (13-14 S latitude). All of these oblique (diagonal) geological structures running from the East Pacific Rise towards South America are essentially degassing zones; along them, a huge number of different chemical compounds. Among them there are, of course, vital elements - nitrogen, phosphorus, manganese, and plenty of microelements. In the thickness of the coastal Peruvian-Ecuadorian waters, the oxygen content is the lowest in the entire World Ocean, since the main volume here is made up of reduced gases - methane, hydrogen sulfide, hydrogen, ammonia. But the thin surface layer (20-30 m) is abnormally rich in oxygen due to the low temperature of the water brought here from Antarctica by the Peruvian Current. In this layer above fault zones - sources of endogenous nutrients - unique conditions for the development of life are created.

However, there is an area in the World Ocean that is not inferior in bioproductivity to the Peruvian one, and perhaps even superior to it - off the western coast of South Africa. It is also considered a wind upwelling zone. But the position of the most productive area here (Walvis Bay) is again controlled by tectonic factors: it is located above a powerful fault zone running from the Atlantic Ocean to the African continent somewhat north of the South Tropic. And the cold, oxygen-rich Benguela Current runs along the coast from Antarctica.

The Southern region is also distinguished by colossal fish productivity. Kuril Islands, where the cold current passes over the submeridional marginal ocean rift Jonah. At the height of the saury season, literally the entire Far Eastern fishing fleet of Russia gathers in a small water area of the South Kuril Strait. It is appropriate here to recall Kuril Lake in Southern Kamchatka, where one of the largest spawning grounds of sockeye salmon (a type of Far Eastern salmon) is located in our country. The reason for the very high biological productivity of the lake, according to experts, is the natural “fertilization” of its water with volcanic emanations (it is located between two volcanoes - Ilyinsky and Kambalny).

However, let's return to El Niño. At a time when degassing intensifies off the coast of South America, the thin, oxygenated and teeming with life surface layer of water is blown through with methane and hydrogen, oxygen disappears, and the mass death of all living things begins: a huge number of bones are lifted from the bottom of the sea by trawls large fish, seals are dying on the Galapagos Islands. However, it is unlikely that the fauna is dying due to a decrease in ocean bioproductivity, as the traditional version says. She is most likely poisoned by poisonous gases rising from the bottom. After all, death comes suddenly and overtakes the entire marine community - from phytoplankton to vertebrates. Only birds die from hunger, and even then mostly chicks - adults simply leave the danger zone.

"RED TIDES"

However, after the mass disappearance of the biota, the amazing riot of life off the western coast of South America does not stop. In oxygen-deprived waters blown with toxic gases, single-celled algae - dinoflagellates - begin to rapidly develop. This phenomenon is known as "red tide" and is so named because only intensely colored algae thrive in such conditions. Their color is a kind of protection from solar ultraviolet radiation, acquired in the Proterozoic (over 2 billion years ago), when there was no ozone layer and the surface of reservoirs was subjected to intense ultraviolet irradiation. So during “red tides” the ocean seems to return to its “pre-oxygen” past. Due to the abundance of microscopic algae, some marine organisms that usually act as water filters, such as oysters, become poisonous at this time and their consumption can lead to severe poisoning.

Within the framework of the gas-geochemical model I developed for the anomalous bioproductivity of local areas of the ocean and the periodically rapid death of biota in it, other phenomena are also explained: the massive accumulation of fossil fauna in ancient shales of Germany or phosphorites of the Moscow region, overflowing with the remains of fish bones and cephalopod shells.

MODEL CONFIRMED

I will give some facts indicating the reality of the El Niño degassing scenario.

During the years of its manifestation, the seismic activity of the East Pacific Rise sharply increases - this was the conclusion made by the American researcher D. Walker, having analyzed the relevant observations from 1964 to 1992 in the area of this underwater ridge between 20 and 40 degrees. w. But, as has long been established, seismic events are often accompanied by increased degassing of the earth’s interior. The model I developed is also supported by the fact that the waters off the western coast of South America literally boil with the release of gases during El Niño years. The hulls of ships are covered with black spots (the phenomenon is called “El Pintor”, translated from Spanish as “the painter”), and the foul smell of hydrogen sulfide spreads over large areas.

In the African Gulf of Walvis Bay (mentioned above as an area of anomalous bioproductivity), environmental crises also periodically arise, following the same scenario as off the coast of South America. Emissions of gases begin in this bay, which leads to massive fish deaths, then “red tides” develop here, and the smell of hydrogen sulfide on land is felt even 40 miles from the coast. All this is traditionally associated with the abundant release of hydrogen sulfide, but its formation is explained by the decomposition of organic residues on the seabed. Although it is much more logical to consider hydrogen sulfide as a common component of deep emanations - after all, it comes out here only above the fault zone. The penetration of gas far onto land is also easier to explain by its arrival from the same fault, tracing from the ocean to the interior of the continent.

It is important to note the following: when deep gases enter the ocean water Their separation occurs due to sharply different (by several orders of magnitude) solubility. For hydrogen and helium, it is 0.0181 and 0.0138 cm 3 in 1 cm 3 of water (at temperatures up to 20 C and a pressure of 0.1 MPa), and for hydrogen sulfide and ammonia it is incomparably greater: 2.6 and 700 cm, respectively 3 in 1 cm 3 . That is why the water above the degassing zones is greatly enriched with these gases.

A strong argument in favor of the El Niño degassing scenario is a map of the average monthly ozone deficit over equatorial region planet, compiled at the Central Aerological Observatory of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia using satellite data. It clearly shows a powerful ozone anomaly over the axial part of the East Pacific Rise slightly south of the equator. I note that by the time the map was published, I had published a qualitative model explaining the possibility of destruction of the ozone layer above this zone. By the way, this is not the first time that my predictions of the location of the possible appearance of ozone anomalies have been confirmed by field observations.

LA NINA

This is the name of the final phase of El Niño - a sharp cooling of water in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, when for a long period its temperature drops several degrees below normal. A natural explanation for this is the simultaneous destruction of the ozone layer both over the equator and over Antarctica. But if in the first case it causes heating of the water (El Niño), then in the second it causes a strong melting of ice in Antarctica. The latter increases the influx of cold water into the Antarctic waters. As a result, the temperature gradient between the equatorial and southern parts Pacific Ocean, and this leads to an intensification of the cold Peruvian Current, which cools the equatorial waters after the weakening of degassing and restoration of the ozone layer.

THE RIGITAL CAUSE IS IN SPACE

First, I would like to say a few “justifying” words about El Niño. The media, to put it mildly, are not entirely right when they accuse him of causing disasters such as floods in South Korea or unprecedented frosts in Europe. After all, deep degassing can simultaneously increase in many areas of the planet, which leads there to the destruction of the ozonosphere and the appearance of anomalous natural phenomena, which have already been mentioned. For example, the heating of water that precedes the occurrence of El Niño occurs under ozone anomalies not only in the Pacific, but also in other oceans.

As for the intensification of deep degassing, it is determined, in my opinion, by cosmic factors, mainly by the gravitational effect on the liquid core of the Earth, where the main planetary reserves of hydrogen are contained. An important role in this case is probably played by the relative position of the planets and, first of all, interactions in the Earth - Moon - Sun system. G.I. Voitov and his colleagues from the Joint Institute of Physics of the Earth named after. O. Yu. Schmidt of the Russian Academy of Sciences established long ago: degassing of the subsoil noticeably increases during periods close to the full moon and new moon. It is also influenced by the position of the Earth in its circumsolar orbit and by changes in its rotation speed. The complex combination of all these external factors with processes in the depths of the planet (for example, the crystallization of its inner core) determines the pulses of increased planetary degassing, and hence the El Niño phenomenon. Its 2-7-year quasi-periodicity was revealed by domestic researcher N. S. Sidorenko (Hydrometeorological Center of Russia), having analyzed a continuous series of atmospheric pressure differences between the stations of Tahiti (on the island of the same name in the Pacific Ocean) and Darwin (northern coast of Australia) over a long period - since 1866 to the present time.

Candidate of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences V. L. SYVOROTKIN, Moscow State University. M. V. Lomonosova