How to open a bakery for a novice entrepreneur. Business plan for a mini bakery: investment and starting a business

The bakery staff should consist of the following positions:

Commercial Director;

Production Manager;

Accountant;

Handyman;

Driver.

The commercial director deals with product sales. His responsibilities include concluding contracts with retail chains and monitoring payments to stores. The production manager's responsibilities include ensuring the smooth operation of the bakery. This requires timely delivery of raw materials for dough preparation. In addition, the production manager monitors technical condition equipment and must promptly invite specialists for its maintenance. Bakers do the actual baking bakery products. General workers perform auxiliary work, such as unloading flour, sugar and other dough components, loading bread into a machine for sending to stores, minor adjustment work, cleaning the premises and other necessary work. The driver's responsibilities include delivery finished products to stores with which supply agreements have been concluded. He also has the right to receive cash for products sold in stores.

The operating time of the enterprise during continuous operation in two shifts is 360 days per year

(8 x 2 x 360) = 5760 hours per year.

. = D p. x T c

x (1 –

δ/100)

T cm – shift duration /hours/

D p. – number of working days per year

time fund per worker per year

percentage of absenteeism (average value 10 – 20%).

The time fund of one worker per year with an 8-hour working day is

8 o'clock x 253 days – (8 x 253 x 0.12) = 1781 hours

According to our company, the number of attendance of the main production workers in the production of Turkish loaf is - 5 people.

The number of workers on the payroll in a 2-shift continuous mode on a sliding schedule will be: 5 people. x 5760 hours per year / 1781 hours = 16 people.

The number of other categories of employees can be found in the management structure.

Commercial Director

Head Production Accountant

Capital investments: 1,123,100 rubles,
Average monthly revenue: 535,000 rubles,
Net profit: 57,318 rubles,
Payback: 23 months.

A feasibility study for opening a business in the field of food production - a mini-bakery, which can be used as a sample for writing a business plan, as well as an example for calculating the economic feasibility of starting an activity.

Target: Justification of the feasibility and effectiveness of organizing a business for baking bakery products.

Project Description

Project idea: mini bakery

The idea is to open a mini-bakery in the city “N” (population 270 thousand people), specializing in baking bakery products.

Assortment.

Planned product range:

Butter buns (8 types)
Cupcakes
Lamb products
Bagels
Cottage cheese

Competition

Currently, in the city “N” there are 2 bakeries and 3 mini-bakeries, all specializing in the production of bread products (bread).

In this regard, the opening mini-bakery will specialize in the production of bakery products (100% assortment). The main competitive advantage is the sale of only fresh baked goods.

Organizational form and taxation system.

Organizational and legal form of conducting activities: “ individual entrepreneur" Form of taxation: Simplified taxation system, income minus expenses, 15%. Maintaining accounting: At the initial stage, tax and accounting will be outsourced to a specialized accounting firm. After organizing all production processes and debugging sales, the business owner will keep records independently using the “My Business” online service.

Operating mode:

The bakery will be open daily.

From 00:00 to 10:00 for employees (baker, assistant) directly involved in baking bakery products. This category of employees will work in shifts, two after two.

From 7:30 to 16:30 for employees (manager, sales representative) who are involved in the marketing and sale of finished products. This category of employees will work for 5 days working week, and the weekends come out alternately.

General staffing:

Required equipment.

To organize a business, the following set of equipment for a bakery is required:

	Name	Col.	Price
	Bakery oven HPE-500	1	RUR 34,794
	Proofing cabinet ShRE 2.1	1	19760 rub.
	Flour sifter PVG-600M	1	RUB 21,708
	Dough mixer MTM-65MNA	1	51110 rub.
	Hearth sheet for HPE 700x460	20	584 rub.
	Exhaust umbrella 10x8	1	7695 rub.
	Single-section washing bath	1	2836 rub.
	Two-section washing bathtub VM 2/4 e	1	5744 rub.
	Refrigeration CABINET R700M	1	24420 rub.
	Pastry table SP-311/2008	1	13790 rub.
	Wall-mounted food table SPP 15/6	1	3905 rub.
	Portion scales CAS SW-1-5	1	2466 rub.
	Portion scales CAS SW-1-20	1	2474 rub.
	SK rack	1	6706 rub.
	Trolley-stud for HPE TS-R-16	1	17195 rub.
Total expenses for the purchase of baking equipment:			226283 rubles

Product sales channels

Main distribution channel: small retail stores located in the city “N” and nearby populated areas. Implementation through networks (regional and federal) grocery stores not planned in 2013.

Project Implementation Plan

Schedule

According to the calendar business plan for a mini bakery, the launch period for the company is 2 months. All stages associated with opening a business are the responsibility of the business owner.

Stage name							Mar.13
Stage name	1 decade	2nd decade	3rd decade	1 decade	2nd decade	3rd decade	1 decade
1 Registration of activities with the Federal Tax Service, ordering a stamp
2 Opening a current account
3 Conclusion of a lease agreement for a production workshop
4 Payment for equipment (baking line, car, equipment)
5 Repair of the premises in accordance with the requirements of the SES for food production, connection to electrical networks, other expenses
6 Coordination with the SES of the workshop premises
7 Line installation, installation supervision, commissioning, test baking
8 Coordination with Rospotrebnadzor of the recipe, technical specifications and instructions for manufactured products.
9 Recruitment
10 Conclusion of an agreement with suppliers and buyers
11 Start of activity

Total cost estimate for the project:

Expense item	Amount of expenses, rub.	Note
Registration of activities with the Federal Tax Service	15 000	State duty, ordering a seal, opening a bank account, others
Cosmetic renovation of the premises, bringing the premises in accordance with the requirements of the SES	100 000	-
Purchase of equipment for baking bakery products	223 104	-
Purchase of vehicles	450 000	Bread van for 128 trays on the base, GAZ-3302 2010 model year.
Purchasing tableware	30 000	-
Recruitment (advertising)	5 000	-
Creation of inventory	50 000	-
Working capital(financing activities until breakeven)	150 000	-
Other expenses	100 000	Connection to electrical networks, approval of specifications and technical specifications for products
Total	1 123 104

According to the calculations carried out, to open a business, investments in the amount of 1.1 million rubles are required.

Planned financial performance indicators.

Planned revenue and profit for 2013-2014.

According to the organizational plan, the start of the company’s activities is planned for March 2013, and achievement of self-sufficiency is expected in May 2013.

The company's activities are seasonal, the peak of sales occurs in the period September - November and March-April, in the remaining months there is a seasonal decrease in revenue.

Consumable part.

The costly part of the bakery's activities includes the following expenses:

Cost of manufacturing products. This line includes the costs of purchasing flour, yeast, margarine, sugar and other ingredients.
Variable expenses. Employees' wages based on output (12% of revenue)
General expenses: This group of expenses includes expenses for wages of employees (fixed part), social contributions, rent for workshop premises, fuels and lubricants, machine repairs, utility bills, administrative expenses, accounting expenses, as well as other expenses.

Planned distribution structure cash received from buyers for 2013-2014.

Expense items
Expense items
Cost of manufacturing products
Employees' salaries are variable (depending on output)
Fixed expenses
Profit before tax

Calculation of return on investment.

Project start: January 2013
Start of activity: March 2013
Reaching operational break-even: May 2013
Reaching forecast revenue: June 2013
Project payback date: November 2014
Project payback period: 23 months.

Opening risk analysis

The process of implementation and further operation of the project may be complicated by a number of risks and negative factors, which are given in the analysis of risk factors and opportunities for operating a mini-bakery. To determine the degree of influence of these risks and their danger to business, we will conduct qualitative and quantitative analysis.

Qualitative indicators are determined by an expert assessment of the likelihood of the threat occurring. Quantitative analysis shows the impact of risks in actual terms.

Qualitative risk analysis of the project

The entire risk zone is divided into external, where the influence of the general economic situation and events not related to the business management process is especially noticeable, and internal, which directly depends on the effectiveness of the organization of management and implementation of the business.

Table 1. Main external risks of the project

Risk name	Risk assessment	Risk characteristics and response methods
Increase in raw material costs		The risk will lead to an increase in the cost of products and a decrease in the marginal part of the income. Risk compensation occurs by increasing the selling price of products or revising weight requirements. To mitigate the risk, it is necessary to constantly monitor the supplier market and conclude long-term contracts.
Opening of N direct competitors in the city		When direct competitors appear, the existing market capacity is proportionally divided between participants, which leads to a decrease in sales. To overcome risk at the organizational stage, a policy of separation from competitors should be pursued and consumer loyalty should be maintained.
Seasonal decline in sales		The risk entails a decrease in average annual sales figures, increases personnel costs, and leads to fluctuations in the intensity of use of production equipment. The risk is mitigated by competent advertising and organizational policies.
Changes at the state level in regulatory requirements for bakery products		The risk may lead to a revision of production flow charts and assortment base.

All external risks can be mitigated if, at the organizational stage of the business, you develop a crisis management strategy, maintain competent positioning and constant contact with the buyer.

Table 2. Main internal risks of the project

Quantitative Project Risk Analysis

All external and internal risks have a single negative consequence - a decrease in profits. The reasons for the decrease in profit may be:

increase in the raw material cost of products due to increased prices for materials, raw materials, labor;
discovery of direct competitors who will be able to win their own market share;
decrease in consumer demand due to unsatisfactory quality and service, as well as seasonal.

Quantitative analysis of investment risks can be carried out using the sensitivity analysis method using the internal rate of return (NPV) as the main parameter. However, having experimental data specific to a specific market (city N with a population of 270 thousand people), we use the practical calculation method.

The degree of influence of an increase in raw material costs and an increase in selling price

Calculated by calculating the elasticity of demand. With the average cost of products (bun buns (8 types), muffins, bagel products, bagels, cottage cheese) in the range of 19-23 rubles, the increase in the final price will have the following indicators:

Thus, we see that with a low average cost of products, a rise in price can lead to a slight increase in demand (due to consumer expectations), and a rise in price by 20-25% (a significant increase in commodity prices that do not fit into the framework of annual inflation) will lead to loss of an average of 4.5% of customers. The risk has a low quantitative value.

Degree of influence of the competitive environment

To calculate the degree of influence of competition, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the competitive environment and calculate the market share of each operator. The emergence of a new player always entails a redistribution of shares; at the first stage, this occurs at the expense of the weakest representatives of the industry. In our case, the project involves the use of counterparties (distribution channels - small retail stores located in the city "N" and nearby settlements), which protects against the direct influence of a competitor under long-term and strict contractual conditions (exclusive partnership).

With a total market share of 6%, the degree of influence of the new competitor has a relative share of 1.2% - this is how much a mini-bakery can lose when opening a similar enterprise in the sales area.

The degree of influence of seasonality and level of service

Taking into account the average seasonal decrease in sales of bakery products in the summer within 10-15%, and the basic requirements of buyers for products,

Project risk ranking

The most likely are marketing and seasonal risks of decreased demand, which may be triggered by an increase in the cost of raw materials and the opening of direct competitors. These are the most critical threats, which should be anticipated at the stage of organizing and implementing a business idea.

Relevance of a mini-bakery business plan

General trends

Today, the market for bakery products in Russia has not yet established itself due to the revaluation of values and the general trend of environmentally friendly and healthy food. Over the past ten years, traditional varieties of bread and bakery products have significantly given way to recipes borrowed from the West: croissants, baguettes, croutons, ciabattas, cereal breads and much more. The usual tin bread, capital loaf, rye and Darnitsky, Moscow, bran and Borodinsky, as well as other varieties produced by municipal bakeries, have lost their top positions, and now the distribution of consumer attention falls in equal shares on traditional offerings and borrowed ones (52% to 48%):

Dynamics of growth in consumption of bread varieties

that is, if back in 1970 Western trends had little influence on the choice of buyers who preferred Soviet-made products, then since the 1990s there has been an increase in the influence of Western technologies and emerging commercial competition, which has made it possible to significantly expand the range of bakery products. By the 2000s, traditional breads had lost more than half of the market. This is largely due to the transition of post-Soviet industries into private hands, which picked up the trend and began to produce fashionable and in-demand products.

	1970	1995	2000	2010	2013
Traditional varieties
Borrowed

By 2010, growth dynamics had decreased, and consumers began to lose interest in foreign recipes. Besides public policy to support national values also influenced the formation of relative equilibrium: now there is equality of assortment choice between tradition (familiar varieties) and borrowing. As for the bakery group, the trends are similar.

The main trend in the bread and bakery products market in the current period is healthy eating, freshness, naturalness. Supermarkets' own bakeries have become very popular, where aroma marketing works well: the smell of fresh baked goods ensures high sales. Traditional factory bakeries are popular among the older generation due to their familiar way of operating and assortment.

According to the Informkonditer IAC, Russians most often buy bakery products at specialized outlets (branded bakery stores, bakeries) and as related products in supermarkets.
Since 2010, Russia has seen a positive growth trend in the production of confectionery products, which constitute internal competition for bakeries, displacing them from store shelves.

Level of competition and foreign manufacturers

The Russian bakery market includes domestic and foreign products. The share of imports is no more than 22%. The main suppliers are Finland and Lithuania. In total, according to statistical authorities, about 28 thousand enterprises are engaged in the production of bakery products on the territory of the state - mostly representatives of medium and small businesses.
If we consider the structure of production, the bulk of bakery products are produced in factories:

Structure of bakery products production

About 75% of all traditional bread production is a “social” product. Regular segmentation of bakery products in large manufacturers is ranking by category:

Core production (up to 80%) bread- the traditional assortment includes up to 25 items;
Secondary production: baguettes and loaves - about 5 items;
Additional production:
- non-traditional and borrowed varieties of bread, pita bread, crispbread, etc. - up to 10 positions;
  bakery products and pastries - about 25 items.

Despite intense competition in the industry, the niche of bakery and butter products remains unfilled, which appeared due to the redistribution of zones of influence between manufacturers:

large factories are focused on bread production and do not pay due attention to the bakery assortment. They don't have enough wide network sales of buns. This is due to high logistics costs and competition with supermarkets, which find it more profitable to sell their own baked goods;
supermarket bakeries, in turn, cannot compete in all consumer segments, and sell bakery products as minor impulse purchases. Those. They do not release the production of factories (in full), but they also do not satisfy demand with their volumes.

Due to this, the main competition in the production and sale of bakery assortments occurs among private bakeries. The main tools for successful competition in such an environment are an understanding of buyer values and a competent sales system.

Consumer motives and values

According to the results of an analysis conducted by the Institute of Agricultural Marketing, the main selection criteria when purchasing bakery products (in descending order):

freshness;
appearance;
price;
package;
manufacturer.

The choice of place to purchase bakery products and baked goods occurs on the principle of one-time use (all products in one place) or incidental: proximity to the place of consumption - home, work, educational institution.

Cities with a population of over 100 thousand already have formats that have their own mini-bakeries. This has increased the influence of retailers on the market structure, since such private production of retailers meets the basic requirements of freshness and low prices. But experts name district grocery stores, discounters and supermarkets among the most successful formats for promoting bakery products.

But it is worth considering that the products of bakeries will not displace the products of large manufacturers, since the latter offer a “social” range of traditional products. Competition can take place in the format of a segmented approach (children's series, women's low-calorie, environmentally friendly, rich in healthy elements, etc.).

Conclusions

Due to the redistribution of values, non-traditional recipes for bakery products (borrowed, new, etc.) are very popular today - this gives new market operators the opportunity to conquer their own segment through the original assortment.

The competitive struggle and forced cooperation of bakeries and hypermarkets has led to the fact that the niche of bakery products has not been filled and cannot yet satisfy the existing demand.

The production of bakery products for a mini-bakery can be profitable and successful if the sales system is properly developed and focused on consumer expectations and values.

It is better to sell your own products through district stores (deli format near your home/school/university) or discounters.

Potential competition for bakery products can come from confectionery products, the production of which has been growing for four years now. To mitigate the risk, it is worth taking into account in strategic planning the possibility of expanding the range by producing confectionery products.

The range of manufactured products includes:

eight types of buns;
cupcakes;
lamb products;
cottage cheese;
bagels.

Competition

Today in the city of “X” there are two bakeries and three mini-bakeries that specialize in the production of bread and similar products. Based on this, the opened mini-bakery will produce bakery products, which will make up 100% of its assortment. The main competitive advantage here is the sale of exclusively fresh baked goods.

Work format and taxation system

The “individual entrepreneur” option will be chosen here as the organizational and legal basis for the business. A simplified taxation system will be used to pay taxes. A specialized outsourcing company will maintain the company's accounting records. After all production processes are organized, the owner will keep records independently.

Operating mode

The mini-bakery will be open every day. The company's employees, in turn, will work in shifts, from 00.00 to 10.00 and on a two-by-two schedule. This applies to the baker and his assistant.

As for the manager and sales representative, they will work from 7.30 to 16.30 on a five-day work week. In this case, they will have alternate days off.

Payroll fund

There will be one manager and his salary will be 30 thousand rubles per month. There will be two bakers working and each of them will receive 22 thousand rubles per month (44 thousand rubles monthly). The company will also employ four baker assistants and each of them will receive 14 thousand rubles per month (56 thousand rubles, respectively). The sales representative's salary will be 22 thousand rubles per month. In total, 156 thousand rubles will be spent on employee salaries per month.

Equipment

To organize a mini-bakery, the following set of equipment is required:

Bakery oven – 34,794 rubles.
Proofing cabinet model ShRE 2.1 – 19,760 rubles.
Flour sifter model PVG-600M – 21,780 rubles.
Dough mixer model MTM-65MNA – 51,110 rubles.
Hearth sheets for HPE 700x460 (20 pcs.) – 584 rubles.
Exhaust hood 10x8 – 7,695 rubles.
Washing tub – 2,836 rubles.
Refrigerator cabinet model R700M – 24,420 rubles.
Pastry table model SP-311/2008 – 13,790 rubles.
Wall-mounted food table model SPP 15/6 – 3,905 rubles.
Portion scales model CAS SW-1-5 – 2,466 rubles.
Portion scales model CAS SW-1-20 – 2,474 rubles.
Shelving model SK - 6,706 rubles.
Trolley-stud model TS-R-16 for HPE hearth sheets – 17,195 rubles.

In total, the purchase of equipment will cost 226 thousand 283 rubles.

Product sales channels

The distribution channels here are small grocery stores located in the city “X” and nearby settlements. Sales of products through regional and federal retail chains not expected.

Project development schedule

The time frame for launching a company in this case is two months. All stages associated with starting a business imply the personal responsibility of the business owner.

In the first month, the business is registered with the Federal Tax Service and stamps are ordered. Next, a current account is opened and a lease agreement for the production workshop is concluded. Everything is purchased necessary equipment to conduct business, the premises are being renovated in accordance with the requirements of the SES.

Over the next month, the entrepreneur receives approval from the SES to conduct business. The line is installed, commissioning is carried out and test baking is done. The formulation and technical specifications are being coordinated with Rospotrebnadzor. Recruitment of employees is underway. Agreements are concluded with suppliers and buyers.

Starting from the third month, the bakery is fully operational.

Registration of activities with the Federal Tax Service will cost 15,000 rubles.

The cost of redecorating the premises and bringing it into compliance with SES requirements: 100,000 rubles.

The purchase of equipment will cost 226,283 rubles.

Purchase of vehicles (bread van with 128 trays, GAZ-3302 car): 450,000 rubles.

The purchase of table equipment will require 30,000 rubles.

To create an inventory you will need 50,000 rubles.

You will need 150,000 rubles as working capital.

100,000 rubles are needed to connect to electrical networks, as well as to approve the technical specifications and technical specifications for the products.

The total amount of funds required to open a mini-bakery will ultimately be about 1,100,000 rubles.

Estimated financial performance of the business

Planned revenue for 2018

In accordance with the organizational plan, the start of the company’s activities is scheduled for March 2018. Self-sufficiency should occur around May of this year.

Planned economic indicators in 2019

The company's activities can be called seasonal, since the peak of sales will most likely be in September - November and from the beginning of March to the end of April. In other months, revenue may decrease.

Estimated payback period for the project: 2 years.

Expense part of the business

The costly part of the business includes the following expenses:

1.Production cost.

This includes the costs required to produce the product. These are, in particular, funds for purchasing flour, margarine, sugar, yeast and other ingredients.

2. Variable expenses.

This means employee wages, which directly depend on output and amount to twelve percent of revenue.

3. General expenses.

This expense item refers to expenses required by wages, social contributions, rent, expenses for fuel and lubricants, equipment repairs, utility bills and other expenses.

Project Risk Analysis

Implementation and further work bakeries are complicated nearby negative aspects and risks. To determine the degree of influence of these factors, a detailed analysis of them is required. This is determined through an expert threat assessment. Also, a detailed study of the problem allows you to see the degree of influence of risks.

Possible risks when doing business

1.Increasing the cost of raw materials

This problem will undoubtedly lead to an increase in product costs and a decrease in profit margins. This risk can be compensated by increasing the selling price or by revising weight requirements. To prevent this problem, it is important to constantly study the supplier market and look for the most advantageous offers.

2.Emergence of new competitors

If new competitors appear, sales volume may decrease significantly. In order to protect the enterprise from this risk, it is recommended to maintain customer loyalty and try in every possible way to differentiate itself from competitors.

3.Decreased sales during a certain season

The problem can lead to decreased sales and increased employee costs. This risk can be overcome through competent marketing policies.

Conclusion

It is obvious that all external and internal risks in business negatively affect profits. These difficulties are significantly mitigated through the development of a crisis management strategy. It is also important to maintain the company's positioning in the market. Constant contact with the consumer and studying his preferences for the offered assortment are also of great importance.

Relevance of a mini-bakery business plan

The main message in the bakery market is healthy eating, naturalness and freshness. Today, the most in demand are bakeries operating in supermarkets, where sales are quite high due to good traffic. According to information from the Information and Analytical Center "Informkonditer", since 2010, the popularity of private mini-bakeries has been growing due to a wide range and exclusive products.

Even if we take into account the intense competition in the industry as a whole, the niche of bakery and butter products is still poorly filled. This is due to the fact that large enterprises are focused more on the production of bread rather than bakery products. At the same time, they cannot cope with competition in supermarkets where their own baked goods are sold. Along with this, the latter cannot present a wide range of products, since this is of secondary interest to buyers. At the same time, the products of large factories are not sold in full in supermarkets.

As a result, private mini-bakeries benefit significantly, since they sell a sufficient amount of bakery products and are able to satisfy the needs of even the most sophisticated customers. Having understood the value of the consumer and established a sales system, an entrepreneur with the help of a private mini-bakery can receive consistently high profits with minimal risks.

Conclusion

Using non-traditional (even borrowed) recipes for baked goods, you can successfully conquer a certain market segment. The niche for such products is now quite free, so any mini-bakery has all the prerequisites for development.

What could be more pleasant in the morning than the aroma of freshly baked bread? What’s tastier than a gorgeous cake with a huge fluffy top of whipped cream? Yes, it's just a dream! But you can realize your dream and make money from it. To do this, you should open a mini-bakery and build a successful business.

Fresh baked goods

Business plan

If you decide to take up such a noble cause as baking bread, then you should think about the upcoming costs. Let's draw up a business plan for a mini-bakery with calculations. Here are the costs ahead:

purchase of equipment from 550 thousand rubles;
bringing the premises in accordance with the requirements for food production from 75 thousand rubles;
rent from 50 thousand rubles. per month;
utilities from 80 thousand rubles. per month;
salaries for employees from 280 thousand rubles. per month;
advertising of products from 35 thousand rubles. per month;
purchase of raw materials from 100 thousand rubles. per month.

Let me make a reservation right away that it is better to buy the premises rather than rent them. Otherwise, relocations are possible, which will not have the best effect on your business. The amount of initial investment in your future business will be 625 thousand rubles - this is subject to renting premises. The amount of monthly expenses will be at least 545 thousand rubles.

Mini-bakery as a business, from personal experience for those who have been and are doing this, it pays off noticeably in a year. The profitability of such a business is at least 30%, which is a good indicator.

The greatest profit can be made by producing confectionery or luxury products, for which you can make a large markup. Then the profitability can be 50%, and the payback period will be about 6 months.

Documents

Since the bakery is a food production facility, it is necessary to obtain a “Sanitary and Epidemiological Certificate for Production.” In addition, finished products also require permission from the SES - “Sanitary and Epidemiological Conclusion for Products.” Without these two documents, neither production nor sale of products will be legal.

In addition, you will need:

documents defining ownership;
permission from the fire inspectorate;
certificate of conformity;
hygiene certificate.

Since this is the production of essential food products, it is very important to obtain all permits. Otherwise, when conducting inspections, you may face a significant fine and closure of the proceedings.

Room

Small bakery space

As mentioned above, it is still preferable to buy premises rather than rent. From the experience of those who run such a business, it becomes clear that any premises for food production must be brought in accordance with sanitary standards. This is quite expensive, and if you rent a room, then when you move to a new one, you will have to do it again. If your funds do not allow you to buy a premises, then the only acceptable solution may be long-term rent for at least 2-3 years.

Business in Russia. Guides to starting a business in the regions.
700,000 entrepreneurs in the country trust us

* The calculations use average data for Russia

1. PROJECT SUMMARY

The goal of the project is to open a mini-bakery for the production and sale of bakery products in a city with a population of more than 1 million people. The main source of income is profit from the sale of bakery products.

To implement the project, premises are rented in a residential area of the city, in close proximity to houses and a busy street. The total production area is 100 m2.

The bakery’s products are positioned as “healthy and nutritious food,” therefore, only high-quality ingredients and a unique recipe are used in the production of bread, which sets the bakery apart on the market.

Target audience - people who prefer healthy image life and choose high-quality and healthy baked goods.

The main advantages of the baking business:

Stable demand for products, practically independent of crisis phenomena;

Flexibility of production, allowing you to adapt to consumer tastes and market trends;

The initial investment in opening a bakery is 885,000 rubles. Investment costs are aimed at repairing premises, purchasing equipment, initial purchase of raw materials and the formation of working capital, which will cover losses initial periods. The bulk of the required investment falls on the purchase of equipment – 66%. Own funds will be used to implement the project.

Financial calculations cover a three-year period of operation of the project. It is planned that after this period the establishment will need to expand production and product range. The bakery's net monthly profit when it reaches planned sales volumes will be 278,842 rubles. According to calculations, the initial investment will pay off in the seventh month of operation. The return on sales in the first year of operation will be 27.8%.

Table 1. Key project performance indicators

2. DESCRIPTION OF THE INDUSTRY AND COMPANY

Bakery products are a product of daily demand. Bread is one of the top three in the list of the most popular products among Russians. According to the results of a social survey, 74% of respondents consume bread daily. It follows from this that this segment of the food market is quite stable.

Figure 1. Frequency of bread consumption in Russia

Ready ideas for your business

On average, per capita there are 46-50 kg of bread per year. However, the indicators in each region differ. The maximum volume of consumption is observed in the Southern Federal District - 50 kg per person. Figure 2 clearly shows the dynamics of bread consumption per capita. In Russia as a whole, the volume of consumption of bakery products is declining. Experts attribute this decline to a trend healthy eating, which excludes bread from the daily diet of Russians. As a result, the production volume of bakery products in Russia over the past decade has decreased by 1.4 million tons: by the beginning of 2016, this figure had dropped to 6.6 million tons.

Figure 2. Supply of traditional types of bread per capita, kg per person per year

Today, manufacturers of bakery products are adapting to the consumption trend and increasing the production of bread, which is positioned as a healthy product - functional additives, cereals, and vitamins are used in its production. Most of these ingredients are supplied from abroad, so we can say that the modern baking industry is dependent on imports. There is also a growing trend in demand for long-life products and frozen bakery products.

Economic crises also influence the dynamics of bread market development. For example, in 2008, due to a decrease in the level of income of the population, there was an increase in demand for bakery products and, accordingly, their production increased. After the economic situation stabilized, demand for these products began to fall again.

The dynamics of demand for bread also depends on the economic crisis: a decrease in the level of income of the population entails an increase in demand for bakery products. Stabilization of the economic situation reduces bread consumption.

According to network trade statistics, at the beginning of 2016, the turnover of bread exceeded 675 billion rubles, while there was a shift in consumption to the budget segment.

Table 2 shows the structure of the bakery products market, with which you can track how the distribution of production has changed between in different forms. There is a tendency for the share of industrial baking to decrease and the share of artisan bread to increase.

Table 2. Segmentation of the baking industry

Segment	Bakery market by year, %
Segment
Industrial bakery
Artisan bread baking
Store baked goods

Ready ideas for your business

The segmentation of the baking industry as of 2016 is presented as follows: 71% of the total market volume is produced by large bakeries, bakeries in supermarkets - 14%, small bakeries - 12%, others - 3%. At the same time, market participants predict a decrease in the share of large bakeries and the development of small bakery businesses. Already today, bakery-cafes in the economy segment and chain boutiques are gaining popularity, where you can not only purchase baked goods, but also have a good time. This format expects a 2-3% share of the bread market. By 2018, the share of small bakeries is expected to increase from 12% to 16% and a further reduction in the share of large bakeries.

All bread produced in Russia can be divided into two types: traditional and non-traditional. The share of traditional bread production is 90% of the total market. Traditional bread includes cheaper products. Non-traditional bread is products based on original recipes, national varieties of bread. The category of non-traditional bread is developing dynamically - in 2016 its growth was 7%, while traditional bread grew only by 1.3%.

Thus, we can highlight the main trend of the bakery products market: non-traditional bread is in demand, which is positioned as “ healthy product». Modern market bakery products places high demands on the manufacturer. Today it is not enough to produce mass-produced, traditional varieties of bread. To operate successfully in the market, it is necessary to create a wide range of products and take into account the tastes of consumers.

According to research by the Institute of Agricultural Marketing, at the end of 2015, prices for bakery products made from premium flour increased by 5% on average in Russia. The maximum price increase was noted in the Northwestern Federal District and the Volga region - about 10%. The minimum growth was recorded in the Southern Federal District and the North Caucasus.

Experts predict that the greatest prospects for the consumption of bakery products are expected in the Southern Federal District - it is in this region that bread production is in demand.

Ready ideas for your business

Figure 3. Rate of change in prices for bakery products made from premium flour in the Federal District in 2015, %

Advantages of creating a small bakery:

Always fresh bread, which ensures demand for products;

Production flexibility to adapt to consumer tastes and market trends

Stable demand, practically independent of crisis phenomena;

Prospects for concluding supply contracts with stores and restaurants, since mini-bakeries are considered more profitable suppliers.

Thus, the constant demand for bakery products, the trend towards the popularization of mini-bakeries and the development prospects and advantages of the baking industry allow us to talk about the investment attractiveness of such a business.

3. DESCRIPTION OF GOODS AND SERVICES

This project involves opening a mini-bakery for the purpose of producing and selling bakery products. The bakery’s products are positioned as “healthy and nutritious food,” therefore, only high-quality ingredients and a unique recipe are used in the production of bread, which sets the bakery apart on the market.

It is recommended that the product range for a small bakery consist of 5-8 product items. It is planned that the bakery will provide the following types of products:

Branded bread with cereals and seeds, designed for consumers who adhere to a healthy diet;

Traditional wheat and rye bread;

Italian ciabatta bread;

French buns and croissants.

The percentage of production of various types of bakery products is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4 – Share of each type of product in total production volume

In the future, it is planned to expand the range of the bakery, based on taste preferences consumers and market trends.

4. SALES AND MARKETING

The bakery's target audience is people who prefer a healthy lifestyle and choose high-quality and healthy baked goods. The target audience can be divided into two segments: 80% of consumers are residents of nearby houses, and 20% are random passers-by and regular customers.

The competitive advantages of the bakery include:

Product quality: fresh baked goods, high-quality and healthy ingredients, unique recipe;

Price of products: traditional bread is sold at a price below the market average. The loss from the price reduction is compensated by the higher price of branded bread;

The presence of a window into the workshop: by providing such a layout of the establishment, you can earn the trust of customers who will be able to observe the process of making bread;

Branded product presentation: each product is sold in a separate paper bag with a description of the product.

To promote a bakery, you can use various marketing tools: installing billboards and signs; distribution of business cards, flyers or booklets with product descriptions; advertising in the media; radio advertising; participation in food exhibitions and fairs; shares and so on.

The use of a particular tool depends on the target audience of the establishment and the project budget.

Tasting of products dedicated to the opening of the bakery. The promotion will last two days and includes free tasting of all types of bakery products, as well as purchasing bakery products with a 25% discount. The costs will be 5,000 rubles.

Every day in the morning there will be “hot hours” when customers can purchase yesterday’s products at a discount;

According to a consumer survey, advertising of bakery products has little influence on the decision to purchase this product. The most important criterion according to which the consumer makes a choice in favor of one or another bread manufacturer is the freshness of the product. Therefore, the key advertising tool is the quality, taste and freshness of the products produced.

The sales plan is calculated based on the production capacity of the mini-bakery. It is assumed that the bakery will produce 550 kg of baked goods in 8 hours of operation. The average selling price will be 50 rubles per kilogram of product. The planned sales volume is calculated based on equipment productivity and 90% products sold: 550*0.9*50= 24,750 rubles per day or 742,500 rubles per month.

5. BAKERY PRODUCTION PLAN

Opening a bakery and organizing production involves the following steps:

1) Bakery location and premises. Choosing the right premises for a bakery with its own bakery is important not only from a marketing point of view, but also in the context of regulatory requirements. The bakery premises must fully comply with the requirements of the SES, namely:

Have separate workshops: a warehouse for storing flour, eggs, sugar and other ingredients; production and storage area; if there is a sale of products, then a sales area;

The room must be hot and cold water, ventilation, sewerage, tiled walls, waterproof floor, air conditioning systems;

There should be additional rooms: bathrooms, storage space for production waste, and a room for staff.

Particular attention should be paid to electrical power, since food processing equipment consumes a lot of electricity.

To accommodate the necessary production capacity and take into account all the requirements, an area of 70 to 200 m2 will be required - this depends on the format of the bakery.

Setting up a bakery will require a lot of money. Therefore, it is worth paying attention to the fact that it is better to own the premises than to rent it. In the case of rent, there is a risk of termination of the contract and change of production location, which will entail additional costs. If your own funds do not allow you to purchase the premises, then it is worth considering the option of a long-term lease for a period of at least 3 years or a lease with the right of subsequent purchase.

When choosing a location, you should also consider the presence of competitors nearby. It is advisable that there are no direct competitors around.

The bakery should be located in a crowded place: markets, near shopping and entertainment complexes and office centers, on central streets. Since a fairly large area is provided for organizing production, the cost of such premises in the center will be quite expensive. In order to optimize the costs of the ongoing project, it is planned to rent for a long-term period a premises in a residential area with an area of 100 m2. 90 m2 are allocated for production premises.

Since in addition to the production of bread, the project provides for its retail sale, the bakery has an area allocated for trading floor– 10 m2 is enough to place a cash register and a display case.

The rented premises meets all sanitary standards and the rules specified in SanPiN 2.3.4.545-96 “Production of bread, bakery and confectionery products” and is intended for food production. The rental cost is 50,000 rubles/month. It is planned to spend 100,000 rubles on renovation of the premises, including the arrangement of the sales area.

2) Personnel selection. The staffing level is determined based on the bakery format and production capacity. Since the project involves opening a mini-bakery that produces 500 kg of bread in an 8-hour shift, to organize the work process you will need:

2 baker-technologists (shift schedule);

Manager responsible for purchasing raw materials and organizing the work of all personnel;

2 cashiers for the sales area (shift schedule);

Cleaning woman;

Accountant.

In this case, it is necessary to conduct preliminary training of personnel, familiarize them with the recipe, safety precautions and the production process, and also ensure compliance with all sanitation standards and requirements. Bakers must have appropriate education and work experience, since the quality of the product largely depends on their professionalism.

3) Equipment. An equally important component of the production process is high-quality equipment. When choosing equipment for a bakery, you need to clearly understand what competitive advantage you plan to get - a wide range, quality, quick reconfiguration of equipment for the production of other types of bread, etc. Today the market offers various options for bakery equipment, the most famous trademarks– ABM, FoodTools, Sigma, Unox, Miwe, Vitella. It is recommended not to skimp on basic equipment.

The equipment required for a mini-bakery includes:

flour sifter – 25,000 rubles;

dough mixer – 100,000 rubles;

dough sheeter – 30,000 rubles;

proofer – 40,000 rubles;

table for working with dough – 30,000 rubles;

oven – 300,000 rubles;

baking trolleys – 15,000 rubles;

refrigerator – 35,000 rubles;

dishes and kitchen utensils – 10,000 rubles.

As a result, a set of specialized equipment for a mini-bakery will cost approximately 585,000 rubles.

4) Supply organization. Before opening a bakery, you should establish supply channels for raw materials and decide on suppliers. It is necessary that all ingredients used comply with GOST requirements.

When agreeing on cooperation with suppliers, it is necessary to familiarize yourself with all the conditions specified in the contract. Typically, shipping costs for ingredients will be borne by your operation. To reduce this cost item, you need to choose suppliers that are closer to your establishment.

The bakery's main raw material is flour. It must be of the highest quality and properly stored. It is recommended not to make large stocks, as the flour may spoil. In addition to flour, you will need: yeast, eggs, fresh milk, sugar, salt and other raw materials.

Drawing up a technological map for preparing products will allow you to accurately calculate the required amount of raw materials. At the same time, it is important that the recipe for bakery products complies with GOSTs or separately adopted specifications.

6. ORGANIZATIONAL PLAN

The initial stage of opening a bakery is registering a business in government agencies and obtaining permits for food production. In order to produce and sell food products, an enterprise must obtain permission from the SES for production, a conclusion from the SES for finished products and a certificate of conformity. Before starting production, you should also obtain a conclusion from the fire inspection and environmental supervision.

To conduct commercial activities, an individual entrepreneur is registered with a simplified taxation system (“income” at a rate of 6%). Types of activities according to OKVED-2:

10.71 - Production of bread and flour confectionery products, cakes and pastries for non-durable storage;

47.24 - Retail trade in bread and bakery products and confectionery in specialized stores.

The legal side of bakery activities is covered in more detail.

The bakery's operating hours are different for the production workshop and the sales area. The production workshop is open from 6:00 to 16:00 with an hour break from 11:00 to 12:00. The trading floor is open from 8:00 to 20:00.

Technological bakers work in shifts: 2 days of work followed by 2 days of rest. Their responsibilities include monitoring the production process, maintaining cleanliness in the workshop during the production cycle, timely write-off of spoiled products, keeping a log of hood cleaning, and accounting for raw materials in stock.

A shift work schedule is also provided for cashier salespeople: a day of work and a day of rest, since their working day lasts 10 hours. Responsibilities of the seller: customer service and work at the cash register, keeping records of cash and transactions supported by the presence of checks, accepting finished products from the workshop, designing a sales window.

The manager is responsible for cooperation with contractors and the purchase of raw materials, organizes the entire work process, controls the staff work schedule, forms a staff, and pays wages.

An accountant maintains financial records and works through outsourcing.

The cleaner is responsible for the cleanliness of the production workshop and sales area.

Table 3. Staffing table and wage fund mini bakeries

	Job title	Salary, rub.	Number, persons	Payroll, rub.
Administrative
	Control
	Accountant (outsourcing)
Industrial
	Baker-technologist (shift schedule)
Trade
	Salesperson-cashier (shift schedule)
Auxiliary
	Cleaning lady (part time)
	Total:			104,000.00 RUR
	Social contributions:			31200.00 RUR
	Total with deductions:			135200.00 RUR

7. FINANCIAL PLAN

The financial plan takes into account all income and expenses of the bakery; the planning horizon is 3 years. It is planned that after this period the establishment will need to expand production and product range.

To launch a project, it is necessary to calculate the amount of investment. To do this, you need to determine the costs of renovating the premises, purchasing equipment, the initial purchase of raw materials and the formation of working capital, which will cover the losses of the initial periods. The bulk of the required investment falls on the purchase of equipment – 66%. Own funds will be used to implement the project.

Table 4. Investment costs

	Name	Amount, rub.
Real estate
	Room renovation
Equipment
	Equipment set
	Equipment for the trading floor
	Fire fighting equipment
Intangible assets

	Certification
Working capital
	Purchase of raw materials
	Working capital

	Total:	885,000 ₽

Variable costs consist of the costs of ingredients that are used in the preparation of bakery products, as well as payment for the facilities consumed during the production process (water, gas, electricity, sewerage). To simplify financial calculations, variable expenses are calculated based on the amount of the average bill and a fixed trade margin at 300%.

Fixed expenses of the bakery consist of rent, utility bills, fund wages, advertising expenses, taxes and depreciation. The amount of depreciation charges is determined by the linear method, based on the period beneficial use fixed assets in 5 years. Fixed costs also include tax deductions, which are not presented in this table, since their amount is not fixed and depends on the volume of revenue.

Table 5. Fixed costs

Thus, fixed monthly expenses were determined in the amount of 221,450 rubles. The planned revenue is 742,500 rubles per month.

8. EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVENESS

The payback period for a bakery with an initial investment of 885,000 rubles is 7-8 months. The net monthly profit of the project upon reaching planned sales volumes will be 278,842 rubles. It is planned to reach the planned sales volume in the eighth month of operation. The return on sales for the first year of operation will be 28%.

The net present value is positive and equal to 24,993 rubles, which allows us to talk about the investment attractiveness of the project. The internal rate of return exceeds the discount rate and is equal to 18.35%.

9. POSSIBLE RISKS

To assess the risk component of the project, it is necessary to analyze external and internal factors. TO external factors include threats related to the economic situation in the country and sales markets. Internal – the effectiveness of organization management.

The specifics of the baking industry determine the following external risks:

rising prices for raw materials, unscrupulous suppliers. In the first case, there is a risk of increased costs and, as a result, the selling price, which may negatively affect demand. In the second case, the risk is associated with interruptions in production. It is possible to reduce the likelihood of these threats by choosing suppliers wisely and including all necessary conditions, which provide financial liability the supplier in case of their violation;

reaction of competitors. Since the bread market is quite saturated and highly competitive, the behavior of competitors can have a strong influence. Price pressure from larger market participants cannot be ruled out, which will negatively affect sales. To minimize this risk, it is necessary to form your own client base, constantly monitor the market, develop new offers that are not represented on the market;

increase in rental costs or termination of the lease agreement. The probability of risk is average, but the consequences of its occurrence can significantly affect costs and production process. This risk can be reduced by concluding a long-term lease agreement and choosing a reliable, conscientious lessor;

seasonal decrease in demand. The probability of this risk is assessed as medium. However, measures should be taken to minimize it: ensure proper distribution of production capacity, develop an effective strategy for promoting products on the market;

changes in regulations governing the baking industry. The probability of the risk is low, but if it occurs, it is almost impossible to avoid the impact;

Internal risks include:

failure to achieve the planned sales volume. This risk can be reduced with an effective advertising campaign and a competent marketing policy, which includes various promotions and bonuses;

equipment breakdown and production downtime. Regular maintenance of equipment in order to maintain its performance will help mitigate the risk;

problems with personnel, which mean low qualifications, staff turnover, lack of motivation of employees. The easiest way to reduce this risk is at the personnel selection stage by hiring employees who meet all the requirements (specialization, work experience), as well as building a system of training and advanced training for employees;

a decrease in the reputation of the establishment among the target audience due to errors in management or a decrease in product quality. It is possible to mitigate the risk with constant monitoring of the production process and product quality.