Seasonal demand also affects. Seasonal business: “Forget about everything and sell

Developing a sales plan and ensuring this plan is a pressing issue in the current economic situation. An incorrectly drawn up plan leads to direct losses - both in the case of excess storage of goods in the warehouse, and indirect losses - in the event of a shortage of goods in the warehouse, which leads to lost profits, deterioration of service, and even unnecessary bonus payments to sales managers.

One of the problems that greatly influences the preparation of the plan is the seasonality of sales of some goods. Some products, for example, running shoes, are more popular in summer than in winter. But heaters sell better in the cold season. These products are seasonal.

The confusion is also caused by the unstable macroeconomic situation, when inflation pushes prices up, and declining consumer demand forces sales to decrease in quantitative terms. Except negative factors, positive factors can also influence - both for the company as a whole - if the company is actively growing, and for specific product positions - if you invest a lot in marketing a product, then the demand for them can grow faster than growth companies. All this introduces a corrective element into the forecasts, because it is no longer so clear to rely on information about sales history without taking into account the real situation.

Therefore, when drawing up a sales plan, take into account the seasonal factor and trends in the company.

How do I calculate the plan to take into account seasonal variations?

What is a seasonal factor - “seasonality”? This is a planned and regular deviation of product sales from average values. Seasonality is often calculated on a monthly basis for a calendar year relative to the previous one. calendar year for each product for which a sales plan is being built and for each outlet individually, and the final plan is drawn up by consolidating the obtained values.

To calculate odds, I recommend calculating in unit terms. If you calculate in monetary terms, then the number of influencing factors increases many times over and this, in addition to increasing the volume of calculations, also greatly increases the chance of error.

Calculating annual seasonality coefficients is quite simple - you need to take the average monthly sales at the end of the year (the amount of sales for the year divided by the quantity), and then, for each month, calculate the deviation of the actual sales volume from the annual average.

(Consumption per month / Average annual consumption = Seasonal coefficient)

If our sales schedule is something like this:

Then, based on the calculation results, you should get something like this table for calculation (for 2010):

Seasonal odds:

But the task is not to calculate the coefficients as such, but to calculate the sales plan according to the current actual sales values for the year. Let's assume that we conduct an analysis at the end of April 2011 and calculate the sales plan for May 2011:

And our plate will look like this:

The task is to understand how much we should sell for May, taking into account current actual sales volumes and seasonality. To do this, we will bring each of the months of the current year to a single base, removing from them the seasonal coefficient that we know.

(Actual Consumption per month / Seasonal coefficient = Ots Average annual consumption)

We get these values:

Which means that if we take into account seasonal factors, the expected average monthly for the year is 246 units/month.

From this, knowing the expected average for the year and the seasonal coefficient in May (calculated in the previous step), we calculate how many sales are expected in the month of May by multiplying the expected average annual sales by the calculated seasonal coefficient: 246 * 1.44 = 354.4 units.

Thus, we continue to formulate a sales plan for each month until the end of the year, adjusting according to actual sales data.

Unfortunately, these laconic calculations are not entirely correct...

We took into account the influence of seasonal fluctuations, but did not calculate the influence of the general trend. If your demand falls (or grows) by 10% every month for objective reasons, then without taking these movements into account, your newly drawn up plan will become untenable and, as we said above, will lead you to losses.

How to assess the impact of a trend?

The result of its calculation looks something like this (orange line):

The problem is that this method is difficult to use when calculating in Excel. But you can try to use simply linear functions, calculating the average monthly sales at the state “at the beginning of the year” and “at the end of the year” (taking into account seasonality), and assessing how it has changed over time. Or simply taking as a target value the one you would like to focus on (“I’m sure that sales volume should increase by 10%”).

Be that as it may, the result of the calculations is the resulting monthly trend “slope” coefficients for each product at each retail outlet for each month where you calculate the sales plan. The problem is that in a normal situation, within a year this is not a straight line, but bends smoothly.

The resulting coefficients are used to adjust the estimate of average annual sales, which, let me remind you, we rely on to estimate future sales.

If we assume that in current economic realities, unit demand will fall by 10% by the end of the year, then the monthly adjustment factor should be approximately equal to 0.987. This means that by this coefficient we will change the estimated monthly average within the current year according to the trend coefficient for each month:

(Actual Consumption per month / Seasonal Coefficient * Trend coefficient = Ots Average annual consumption)

And the calculation of the current values will look like this:

We noticed that the result was 349.8 pieces. instead of the previously calculated 354.4 pieces? It seems that this is not very much, but if you have billions of dollars in turnover, then such an error costs a lot.

To increase the quality of work with seasonality, it is necessary to recalculate the annual seasonal coefficients for the previous year, relative to the identified trends. But if you do not want to carry out a large amount of calculations, even such a small clarification for the current year can already qualitatively improve planning.

It is important that these calculations are carried out and adjusted regularly, according to actual data, in order to obtain the most adequate sales plan and understand how you will ensure and control it.

In real work, professionals usually use more complex approaches. The calculation is carried out not by months, but by weeks, or even by days. More factors influence target values. And the forecast model goes beyond the usual average calculations. But the approach presented above is something that anyone involved in planning can apply, even without special tools.

If this is too labor intensive to do in " manual mode", and if you have 10 retail outlets and 15,000 products, then welcome to us. Our supply management solution Mycroft Assistant automatically collects sales data, analyzes the current state of sales, and independently calculates the optimal operating model and influencing factors. And based on the data received, it generates a sales forecast for each product at each retail outlet. And based on these forecasts, it issues recommendations on the need to replenish stocks so that you rationally ensure this sales plan. So, if you want to optimize your company’s work, but don’t know the best way to do it, welcome to us.

Anyone retail business seasonality to one degree or another. But there are goods for which high and low season s are an integral part of existence. Classic: sleigh in summer, cart in winter. And who better than the founder of a bicycle sales company would know about the specifics of sales seasonal goods?

Seasonality of business can be perceived in different ways - your glass is either half full or half empty. Some businessmen are taking full advantage of the temporary increase in consumer activity in order to get maximum profits and rest on their laurels until the next season. For others, on the contrary, a sharp drop in sales causes uncontrollable panic attacks. Nikolay Sadchikov, founder of the bicycle brand Bear Bike, spoke about what needs to be done to avoid going into the red, how to soberly assess your capabilities and choose the appropriate option for structuring your seasonal business.

There is a time for everything

Making sure your business has a season is quite simple: if weather is one of the main factors in demand fluctuations, welcome to the Club. However, in some markets, seasonality is dictated not by the time of year, but by social stereotypes, the nature of which is not always clear. For example, the countryside real estate market blossoms in the spring and dies down with the onset of autumn, while city apartments, on the contrary, are more often purchased in the winter.

In any case, a concrete economic indicator of seasonality will be a fluctuation in sales of 30% or more in the same months over the past 3-4 years. Just keep in mind the universal seasonality of purchasing activity. In the summer, big cities empty out and demand for everything drops, including out-of-season goods and services. Summer fluctuations within 10-15% of monthly sales volume are the norm for any business. It’s the same story with the holidays: in January and May, people en masse spend their time relaxing rather than shopping.

What to do in the off season?

This is perhaps the most constructive question an entrepreneur can ask himself. If you can find a simple and profitable alternative during the downturn, you won't have to deal with the complexities of a seasonal business every year.

So, strategy one. Try to sell products that have the opposite seasonality in relation to your main assortment. Many of our colleagues sell snowboards and skis in winter. In my opinion, this area is no less specific than bicycles - and there are a lot of professional retailers working in it, whom we are unlikely to be able to compete with in knowledge of the subject or reputation in the market. So, in the off-season, you can limit yourself to simple winter joys: sleds, snow scooters and cheesecakes. By the way, the latter bring good income.

Another option is a sale. If sales fell more than you planned during the low season, you can save the situation with discounts and promotions. There will always be a group of buyers who know that it is more profitable to prepare a sleigh in the summer (and a bicycle in the winter).

Strategy two. If the main headache during the off-season is not sales, but the maintenance of an expensive warehouse, it makes sense to think about retraining your space.

This venture turned out to be very dreary and not particularly profitable. I don't think we'll be trying winter storage again.

Resources

One of the main problems of a seasonal business is the annual dissolution and recruitment of staff. It’s not so difficult with sellers, but, for example, good bicycle assemblers are in great demand. In general, a high-quality specialist, like a well-built business, should have time to earn enough money for a comfortable winter over the summer. If your off-season is short, you can let people go on vacation en masse during this period. And try to respect your staff on a daily basis so that next year your best employees will want to come back to you rather than your competitors.

Another painful issue is rent. Some seasonal owners pay for it six months in advance and receive a good discount. But most landlords, alas, are in no hurry to delve into the intricacies of your business. Temporary retail space seems to be a more profitable option. We are going to test this hypothesis in practice next spring: we will place temporary container retail outlets around the city. If any of the readers have already tried this scheme, please share your experience.

Any decline in demand can be turned into a peak of opportunity, the main thing is to organize everything correctly. Read our article about what sells well regardless of the season, what discounts are considered correct, and how to generally sell during a slow period.

In this article you will read:

How to sell during a seasonal decline in demand

8 ways to sell seasonal goods during the quiet period

How to create demand for a product using promotions and special offers

Decline in demand during the off-season, it no longer surprises anyone and is a familiar, albeit unpleasant, component of business. Some companies rely on the high season, actively selling goods of seasonal demand, since they expect to earn enough during the peak of consumer activity to be able to exist calmly in the remaining months. Others, during a recession, quickly switch to other types of activities, using their own production capacities.

Let's consider what seasonal business your colleagues are engaged in, what they sell during the holidays and how they maintain sales during the off-season.

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1. Adjustment of assortment

During the period of formation of demand for a product, companies should not try to actively sell something that, in principle, sells poorly. It is important to concentrate on promoting seasonal hits: in the summer retail trade products to focus on ice cream, kvass, bottled water, in the pharmacy business - on remedies for sunburn, insect bites, stomach and intestinal problems.

It should be taken into account that competition between different sellers of high-demand goods will also increase. Therefore, it is important not only to look for suppliers with optimal prices, but also to more actively use marketing tools. You can start with merchandising, focusing on hits in the display on the window.

2. Business diversification

This decision will make it possible to load production facilities and people who are released during the off-season with work. Let's say that companies selling computers open sales of air conditioners, fans and other climate control equipment in the summer; ski resorts are beginning to actively offer their hotels and restaurants for weddings, corporate events and trainings.

3.Seasonal sales

Cash in circulation is much better than goods in stock, especially if these are expensive things, the purchase of which many Russians are now postponing until better times. But it is important that the discount is impressive, otherwise summer months It will not be possible to attract the attention of buyers to the winter assortment. As a rule, during this period the most big discounts announce stores selling equipment for skiers and snowboarders, winter shoes, expensive fur coats and leather jackets.

4. Development of special offers

People make a purchasing decision faster if they see that along with the service or product they are interested in, they can get some rare bonus. The main thing is that the purchase is made before the start of the low season or directly during the off-season. For example, one of the schools foreign languages promised three courses for the price of one to everyone who purchases the training program before the end of April 2015. Considering that the program covers four months, training will take place from May to August. Thus, the company will be able to successfully survive the period of decline in demand in the summer months.

Obviously, one person cannot complete three courses at once during this time, which means he will invite one of his friends with him. In fact, they will pay for the training together. The school will not incur any additional costs, because teachers’ salaries depend on the number of hours worked, and not on the number of students.

5. Organization of various promotions

A computer seller attracted attention to his store by organizing a raffle for a trip to Paris. Lottery tickets were issued along with the goods, and the results were published on the company website. It was not difficult to reach an agreement with a travel agency: in mid-autumn, this business begins its off-season.

6. Competitions and training for sellers

If we consider sales during the slow season as a separate project, it is important to establish the right motivation for sales managers. You need to formulate goals, promise bonuses for achieving them, and regularly summarize sales results, not forgetting to reward the winners. At the same time, the goals set for the team should be achievable, and the bonuses should be attractive.

And most importantly, it is necessary to stimulate the sale not of problematic seasonal goods, but of summer “stars”, the most profitable and in demand: in this case, sellers will be really interested in working, and turnover will grow. Such promotions are organized in the summer months by well-known brands of household appliances through special promotional sites, stimulating the sale of the same air conditioners.

In addition, the summer lull is the best time to organize employee training: courses and trainings will not distract them from their daily work so much. Ideally, if they all also go on vacation, then the team will arrive at the beginning of the sales growth season in full force, with new ideas and new strength.

7. New product launch

It has been noticed that it is in July and August that many new products appear in various market sectors. This time is convenient because during a period of shortage of business news, any bright product quickly attracts the attention of both the press and consumers - especially if you connect a loyalty program and accompany the presentation of the new product with discounts and bonuses. This is an excellent means of combating the decline in demand.

What is especially valuable is that during the off-season, discounts will not be considered by the market as a bearish game: at this time many people resort to them. Therefore, when full-scale promotion of the product begins, prices for it can be raised without any problems. Summer sales should be considered as a pilot project, allowing you to test attitudes towards a new product and make adjustments to its concept.

8.Preparing for the high season

There may be problems with selling seasonal goods great opportunity. If forecasts show that planned marketing campaigns will not give the desired sales growth, it is better not to scatter resources and start preparing for the formation of demand for the product in the future - concentrate on preparing for the high season, which is sure to come.

During a period of calm in business, in many markets you can buy raw materials and equipment cheaper, and if you have the opportunity to stock up, you should do so. Moreover, this good time for auditing and restructuring business processes.

Development of an anti-crisis strategy for an organization: the most important points

During the summer months, it is imperative to contact regular customers who place large orders during the season to find out what will be important to them in the near future, and based on this knowledge, prepare new profitable projects.

Prepare your sleigh in the summer. This folk wisdom, well known to everyone since childhood, acquires special implications for business owners. It is believed that seasonal lull is natural and inevitable.

Each product has its own season

It is difficult to name a business that would not be influenced by the time of year on production and sales volume. The factors that shape these types of market trends are numerous: ranging from trivial weather conditions to religious fasts.

Sales of consumer goods in the summer are less active due to vacations and trips to the country.

Entrepreneurs planning their business in seasonal conditions, are required to pay attention to detail, and even for obvious trends, accuracy in calculations sometimes plays a key role.

Let's start with “nice” products that are especially popular in the summer:

Ice cream- an undisputed favorite among delicacies in summer period, as well as a textbook example of seasonality. According to Romir, 77% of Russians admit that they like to eat ice cream in the heat.
Russian kvass- also an extremely seasonal product. In January, less than 4% of households bought this drink at least once. However, already in May the share of such families increased to 22%, and in June it was already 28%. It is noteworthy that Muscovites consume kvass more often than residents of other large cities: 42 and 7.36%, respectively. In general, the tendency is that the larger the city, the more popular this soft drink. People aged 35-44 years drink kvass the most during picnics.
Along with kvass, the demand for bottled water- 47% of households bought it in June versus 32% in January.
Sales soar in summer beer. In June - July they increase by 15%. At the same time, people are beginning to give preference to drinking beer on fresh air, while in winter they consume it mainly indoors.
At the same time, the summer season is traditionally characterized by a decline in sales chocolate products. Thus, with the onset of warmer weather, the volume of consumption of candy bars decreases - in June, the share of buyers of this product was 22.5 versus 25% in May.
And the ranks of lovers chocolates in boxes thinned from 10% in May to 8% in June.
During hot weather there is a reduction in consumption coffee. For example, in Moscow in July - August, the volume of home consumption of this drink decreased by 31% compared to May - June. Similar figure for last year amounted to 11%. A similar situation was observed in St. Petersburg, where coffee sales fell by 39% and 21%.
Sales volumes decline in summer dairy products(although sales of milk-based refreshments with added juice are growing).
At the same time, prices for eggs.
Many of us use chapstick, whose sales volumes are also subject to seasonality. In January in major Russian cities This lip product is purchased by 3% of households, in May - about 2%, and in December - almost 5%.
Member of the board of directors of the Romir holding and president of the Guild of Marketers Igor Berezin added to this list tires, which are sold exclusively in April - May and October - November, and it is almost impossible to get anyone to buy them in August.
He also draws attention to the fact that sales meat population during Lent fall by 10-12%.
Guild President bakers and confectioners Marina Lyutikova said that January and February are a low season for her market segment. Revival occurs only in March. Peak sales bakery products falls in May, when people leave to live in the country.

Summer recession for business

Despite the fact that seasonality for each market its own, general trends can be identified. Sales of consumer goods are less active in the summer, including due to vacations and trips to the country, warns Igor Berezin.

Indeed, if we look at the statistics of the Romir holding, we will see: the expenses of Russians in June - July decreased both in absolute and in relative terms. In June, costs for purchasing food and consumer goods decreased by 9.5% compared to May, and in July - by 7.5% compared to June.

It should be remembered that excess heat in summer makes seasonal trends more pronounced. It allows you to trace market trends and consumer habits that have become more acute in extreme conditions. There is no talk of any consumer revolution, and the data obtained is easy to use when planning sales, adjusted for less hot weather.

Issue #158. How to get maximum profit from selling seasonal goods

Every online store that monitors its indicators is aware that a product, among other indicators, has the concept of seasonality. New Year's toys and Christmas trees are not sold in July, and barbecues and gardening tools are not offered for purchase in January. How to identify seasonal goods and what to do to maintain profits? This is what our newsletter is about today.

What influences?

Time of year weather conditions . Due to the colder weather, sales of winter shoes, umbrellas, outerwear, heaters, cold medicines, winter tires, etc. are increasing. In spring and summer, gardening tools, vegetables and fruits are more actively purchased. vitamin complexes, construction equipment, as well as cars. They go to cafes and restaurants, beauty salons, and travel more actively.
Holidays. New Year, Christmas, Valentine's Day, February 23, March 8, May 1 and 9, September 1, etc. Each of them has its own “set of purchases.” For the New Year, people are eager to buy souvenirs, a variety of gifts from figurines to household appliances, alcohol and drinks, and food. By March 8, they buy flowers, sweets, go to a cafe, order delivery, etc. On the Day of Knowledge, parents get their child ready for school, where necessary school uniform, office, household appliances, furniture.
Habit. People prefer to buy real estate and cars in spring and summer. This is because a novice driver will prefer to practice on dry asphalt instead of snow and mud. The presence of a dacha can be assessed more acutely in the summer.
Duty cycle. People have a hard time “coming out” of the New Year and May holidays, because they are quite long. At this time, the popularity of goods that require diligent selection and a serious approach decreases. But sales of food, alcohol, and confectionery products are intensifying.

Disadvantages of seasonal goods

Due to the fact that the product is in high demand, it requires more space. If you initially rented 20 sq. m of closed space without the ability to expand, you will have to look for additional storage elsewhere. These are always the costs of rent and transportation.
If you have an online store with at least several employees, due to seasonality you will have to fire someone or reduce their salary. This leads to loss of competent personnel or low employee motivation.
If you were selling New Year's balls and got some leftovers, you are unlikely to be able to “fuse” it somewhere in February. Lost profit.

Benefits and features

You can use seasonality and active purchasing of certain goods to your advantage. Roughly speaking, profit on notebooks in September will help you cover losses from unsold New Year's balls in December-January.
You can use the decline in demand to your advantage. Re-equip your workplace, make repairs, complete a protracted move, consider new ways of promotion and advertising. This will only work to your advantage in the future. Nothing to change and you're fine? Look at reviews on the Internet about yourself and.
Review your assortment. Maybe it's really time to stop focusing on just lace panties and stockings? You can add insulated leggings, tights, socks, pantaloons to the assortment autumn-winter period? This is for the owners of online lingerie stores.
Take care of your staff. If you're focusing on the high season, take the time to motivate and train your employees. We mentioned earlier that your advertising may work flawlessly, but an incompetent manager or call center operator can instantly turn a potential client into an evil enemy.

How to sell more?

Discounts, sales, promotions. These are completely understandable methods. “Minus 50% of the amount”, “Everything for 50 rubles”, “Buy a set (shampoo, gel and soap) cheaper!”. In each case, this is either an initially unpopular product, or it is added to the set of those products that are in demand.
Lower and raise prices. During certain months of the year, more favorable conditions for the buyer (the so-called seasonality coefficient).
Think a year ahead. What does it mean? Build advertising campaign their products so that they remain relevant at any time of the year. Thus, you can sell ice cream during the cold season by offering to add it to coffee instead of milk. It tastes better, creates a special coziness and allows the buyer to enjoy iced coffee while facing the winter weather. For each seasonal product, you can come up with your own special positioning, why you need to buy it now too. This is where your imagination and perseverance in choosing the most effective approach will come in handy.
Review your assortment. Add products that will balance the lack of demand for another product with their popularity in a particular season (talking about notebooks and pantaloons).
Look for an audience. This is how souvenirs, toys, briefcases, etc. appear in online stationery stores. Expand the number of interested parties.
Expand your geography. Perhaps you are wasting your time in delivering to neighboring areas or throughout the country. This question can be considered and calculated.
Optimize your advertising budget. Increase your bids in Google AdWords or Yandex.Direct for a period high season and reduce during the calm phase. You must be sure that there is enough money for all available traffic on “hot” dates. Consider your capabilities so that demand does not exceed supply.