Seasonality of food sales. Which products are subject to seasonal demand, trends and tendencies of seasonal factors

Developing a sales plan and ensuring this plan is a pressing issue in the current economic situation. An incorrectly drawn up plan leads to direct losses - both in the case of excess storage of goods in the warehouse, and indirect losses - in the event of a shortage of goods in the warehouse, which leads to lost profits, deterioration of service, and even unnecessary bonus payments to sales managers.

One of the problems that greatly influences the preparation of the plan is the seasonality of sales of some goods. Some products, for example, running shoes, are more popular in summer than in winter. But heaters sell better in the cold season. These products are seasonal.

The confusion is also caused by the unstable macroeconomic situation, when inflation pushes prices up, and declining consumer demand forces sales to decrease in quantitative terms. Except negative factors, positive factors can also influence - both for the company as a whole - if the company is actively growing, and for specific product positions - if you invest a lot in marketing a product, then the demand for them can grow faster than growth companies. All this introduces a corrective element into forecasts, because it is no longer so clear to rely on information about sales history without taking into account the real situation.

Therefore, when drawing up a sales plan, take into account the seasonal factor and trends in the company.

How do I calculate the plan to take into account seasonal variations?

What is a seasonal factor - “seasonality”? This is a planned and regular deviation of product sales from average values. Seasonality is often calculated on a monthly basis for a calendar year relative to the previous one calendar year for each product for which a sales plan is being built and for each outlet individually, and the final plan is drawn up by consolidating the obtained values.

To calculate odds, I recommend calculating in unit terms. If you calculate in monetary terms, then the number of influencing factors increases many times over and this, in addition to increasing the volume of calculations, also greatly increases the chance of error.

Calculating annual seasonality coefficients is quite simple - you need to take the average monthly sales at the end of the year (the amount of sales for the year divided by the quantity), and then, for each month, calculate the deviation of the actual sales volume from the annual average.

(Consumption per month / Average annual consumption = Seasonal coefficient)

If our sales schedule is something like this:

Then, based on the calculation results, you should get something like this table for calculation (for 2010):

Seasonal odds:

But the task is not to calculate the coefficients as such, but to calculate the sales plan according to the current actual sales values ​​for the year. Let's assume that we conduct an analysis at the end of April 2011 and calculate the sales plan for May 2011:

And our plate will look like this:

The task is to understand how much we should sell for May, taking into account current actual sales volumes and seasonality. To do this, we will bring each of the months of the current year to a single base, removing from them the seasonal coefficient that we know.

(Actual Consumption per month / Seasonal coefficient = Ots Average annual consumption)

We get these values:

Which means that if we take into account seasonal factors, the expected average monthly for the year is 246 units/month.

From this, knowing the expected average for the year and the seasonal coefficient in May (calculated in the previous step), we calculate how many sales are expected in the month of May by multiplying the expected average annual sales by the calculated seasonal coefficient: 246 * 1.44 = 354.4 units.

Thus, we continue to formulate a sales plan for each month until the end of the year, adjusting according to actual sales data.

Unfortunately, these laconic calculations are not entirely correct...

We took into account the influence of seasonal fluctuations, but did not calculate the influence of the general trend. If your demand falls (or grows) by 10% every month for objective reasons, then without taking these movements into account, your newly drawn up plan will become untenable and, as we said above, will lead you to losses.

How to assess the impact of a trend?

The result of its calculation looks something like this (orange line):

The problem is that this method is difficult to use when calculating in Excel. But you can try to use simply linear functions, calculating the average monthly sales at the state “at the beginning of the year” and “at the end of the year” (taking into account seasonality), and assessing how it has changed over time. Or simply taking as a target value the one you would like to focus on (“I’m sure that sales volume should increase by 10%”).

Be that as it may, the result of the calculations is the resulting monthly trend “slope” coefficients for each product at each retail outlet for each month where you calculate the sales plan. The problem is that in a normal situation, within a year this is not a straight line, but bends smoothly.

The resulting coefficients are used to adjust the estimate of average annual sales, which, let me remind you, we rely on to estimate future sales.

If we assume that in current economic realities, unit demand will fall by 10% by the end of the year, then the monthly adjustment factor should be approximately equal to 0.987. This means that by this coefficient we will change the estimated monthly average within the current year according to the trend coefficient for each month:

(Actual Consumption per month / Seasonal Coefficient * Trend coefficient = Ots Average annual consumption)

And the calculation of the current values ​​will look like this:

We noticed that the result was 349.8 pieces. instead of the previously calculated 354.4 pieces? It seems that this is not very much, but if you have billions of dollars in turnover, then such an error costs a lot.

To increase the quality of work with seasonality, it is necessary to recalculate the annual seasonal coefficients for the previous year, relative to the identified trends. But if you do not want to carry out a large amount of calculations, even such a small clarification for the current year can already qualitatively improve planning.

It is important that these calculations are carried out and adjusted regularly, according to actual data, in order to obtain the most adequate sales plan and understand how you will ensure and control it.

In real work, professionals usually use more complex approaches. The calculation is carried out not by months, but by weeks, or even by days. More factors influence target values. And the forecast model goes beyond the usual average calculations. But the approach presented above is something that anyone involved in planning can apply, even without special tools.

If this is too labor intensive to do in " manual mode", and if you have 10 retail outlets and 15,000 products, then welcome to us. Our supply management solution Mycroft Assistant automatically collects sales data, analyzes the current state of sales, and independently calculates the optimal operating model and influencing factors. And based on the data received, it generates a sales forecast for each product at each retail outlet. And based on these forecasts, it issues recommendations on the need to replenish stocks so that you rationally ensure this sales plan. So, if you want to optimize your company’s work, but don’t know the best way to do it, welcome to us.

Seasonal downturns are familiar to businessmen in almost any field of sales. However, few people know how to prepare for this period. Read our article about how to calculate stocks of seasonal and non-seasonal goods, as well as how to optimize costs, and what to do when clients fast or leave the city for the summer.

Seasonal downturns- This is a common, albeit unpleasant, phenomenon for most companies. Enterprises are well aware of the seasonality of goods, the consumption of which varies at different times of the year. I encountered this problem three times, and each time it was possible to solve it by introducing into the product portfolio products that had the opposite seasonality in relation to the main assortment, which each time made it possible to avoid poor sales.

What to consider before the seasonal decline begins

First of all, you should calculate in advance the required quantity of goods for the off-season so that the products do not go to waste, but at the same time there is no shortage on the shelf. After all, during the off-season the consumer buys less, which means that supplies need to be adjusted to demand. Therefore, we must immediately pay attention to three main points.

Seasonality coefficients. They are used in the process of planning sales and purchases for another year, with their help you can determine how much revenue the company will receive in a particular month and how many goods need to be ordered. If deliveries are made in short terms, then in the off-season you should focus on the consumption of goods over the last week or two, and for long periods - just on the seasonality coefficient of the goods, which is calculated using the following formula:

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k seasonality = Si: Ss × 100%,

where Si is the actual amount of sales for a certain month;
Ss- average monthly amount sales for the year.

This formula can be used to calculate the inventory of goods both in season and out of season.

It is important to remember that the sum of all coefficients for the year should be equal to 12 (according to the number of months in the year). Otherwise, the calculation is incorrect and must be adjusted manually, taking into account the rising or falling sales trend in the market, force majeure or interior plan enterprise development. For convenience, we multiplied the coefficient by 100%. For example, in a given month we received a coefficient of 56% - this means that exactly that much of 100% of products is sold.

Inventory of seasonal and non-seasonal goods. They are purchased based on seasonality factors. For example, if in April we purchased 100 units of ice cream and 50 units of semi-finished products, then the number of goods that need to be purchased in May to meet basic demand should be calculated using the following formula:

quantity of goods for May = quantity sold in April × (kn: kn – 1),

where kn is the seasonality coefficient for the month in which the season ends;
kn – 1 - seasonality coefficient in the month preceding the end of the season.

Timely advertising. It is necessary as early as possible, before the onset of the seasonal decline, to convey to customers information that, in addition to the main products, the store is introducing additional products. In addition, it is necessary to conduct promotions at the beginning of the season to draw attention to the assortment, and at the end of the season to sell the remaining goods.

• Seasonal decline in demand: 8 great ways to sell all year round
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Method 1: Replace the product during the seasonal downturn

A classic example of a seasonal product is ice cream. In summer it sells three times better than in winter. In large stores, this product is not the main sales driver even in summer, so poor sales of ice cream in the cold season are not particularly noticeable for them, but for small kiosks, winter becomes a serious test. At one time I worked for a company that supplied ice cream to such stalls.



For us, the solution to the problem of seasonal declines turned out to be frozen semi-finished meat products, which sell very well in winter and worse in summer. These are products that need to be stored in the same chest freezers as ice cream, so everything necessary equipment To put them on sale, kiosks already had them. Seasonality coefficients for convenience foods and ice cream ranged from 56 to 187%.

How to determine inventory. According to the above formula, the quantity of ice cream supplied in May would be 169 units (100 units × (133%: 79%)), semi-finished products - 48 units (50 units × (99%: 105%)). The ratio of ice cream sales in the most seasonal month (July) to the least seasonal (October) was 3.34 (187%: 56%). Sales of semi-finished products fell to 84% in July, and increased to 110% in March and October. That is, sales of this product in spring and autumn increased by 1.3 times compared to summer (110%: 84%). This means that in July we had to order 3.34 times more ice cream, and 1.3 times less semi-finished products.

Method 2. Introduce lean products during fasting

In the Moscow region, where our company operates, buyers who comply Lent, every year it becomes more and more. We observe this dynamics, focusing on the annual decline in sales of all fast food products: meat, fish, milk, kefir, eggs, sour cream, cheese, fermented baked milk, yogurt and cottage cheese. True, in 2015, due to the coincidence of February 23 with the first day of Lent, this trend was disrupted. However, we understand that this is an exception.

Every year the number of fasting consumers increases by 5%, while they are not starving at all. Therefore, for this period, every year we increase the range of Lenten food, which should help believers survive 48 days until Easter. We sell vegetables, fruits, including pickled and dried, jam and honey, bread and pasta prepared without eggs, sweets plant based, juices and fruit drinks, cereals, cabbage cutlets. With this additional assortment we are able to significantly reduce negative influence decrease in sales of meat and dairy products.

To ensure uninterrupted supply of Lenten products, we use seasonal coefficients, which are calculated specifically for the period of Lent. If after it we still have some specific goods, then we sell them for 50% of the cost.

In addition, long before Lent, we put up advertising posters in stores about expanding our assortment. Buyers can taste any Lenten food directly at retail outlets to be sure of its quality.

Method 3. Moscow region instead of the capital

In megacities, summer is a difficult period of seasonal decline for retail, when up to 30% of the population goes on vacation. Most of the retail outlets of the company where I work now are located in Moscow, so summer for us is a time when sales decrease by 30%.

The solution was to open stores in the Moscow region in 2012, where sales in the summer do not fall so much. This is due to the fact that residents of the near and far Moscow region less often go on vacation, and residents of the capital move to their dachas in the summer.

In the summer, we expand the range of seasonal goods (berries, fruits, kvass, fruit drinks, water, ice cream), the sales of which increase several times. We have been selling summer products for several years now, and they do not need advertising. At the same time, they can be tried in retail outlets, which increases sales.

• 8 marketing moves to increase sales during the low season

Tips to avoid poor sales due to seasonal downturns

1. Let employees rest. One of Russian companies in the worst month for sales, it allows all employees to take another paid vacation. In this case, additional workers are not needed to replace those who might go on vacation at other times of the year, and there are no problems associated with the transfer of cases. In our company, for example, summer is also vacation time (Figure 2).

2. Link costs to turnover. Then, during the seasonal downturn, expenses will decrease along with revenue, which will allow you to survive unfavorable times. Try to agree with partners and distributors that you will pay them not a fixed amount, but a piece rate, based on turnover.

Even rents for commercial real estate are large retail chains tied to the turnover of a specific retail outlet, indicating these conditions in the contract. Thus, they interest the landlord in increasing their revenue. This is usually done by “anchor” tenants, who become the main source of customers in the store or shopping center. Once such an agreement is concluded, the lessor provides the company with best conditions location and advertising and does not allow other tenants with a similar product range onto its territory, which could reduce the revenue of the “anchor” tenant.

You can supplement and discuss the article with colleagues

What is the “Locust Strategy” and “Assortment Adjustment”? How does seasonality affect retail sales and how can you maximize revenue during this period? Find answers to these questions in our next article.

Seasonal factor in trade

All companies have different business strategies, but it is not uncommon for stores when sales are affected by seasonal factors.

IN different times year, the demand for certain goods drops to zero, and then novice entrepreneurs begin to get nervous, but experienced retailers are no longer surprised by this seasonal factor in trade.

Some stores rely specifically on high season: For example, a company selling fireworks just a few weeks before and after the New Year can make revenue comparable to a year of operation of the trade enterprise.

At the peak of consumer activity for seasonal goods, businessmen receive “extra profits.” Other stores are trying to sell goods in accordance with the season or switch to other types of activities.

A decrease in demand for goods under the influence of seasonal factors is noted by almost 90% of stores of various types.

“Seasonality” in marketing means economic process, directly related to the change of seasons, as well as holidays, weather factors, purchasing habits and consumer stereotypes.

Marketers distinguish three main types of “seasonality”:

• “hard” seasonality - directly related to certain events, activities, dates, and after their occurrence, the product loses its relevance.
  For example, this is Easter, when the population buys Easter cakes and chicken eggs V large quantities, or Valentine's Day, when valentines, soft toys, images of hearts, etc. are popular;
• “moderate” seasonality – does not cause significant damage to the business, since the decline in demand within such seasonality is no more than 20%, and the enterprise will remain “afloat”.
  But in any case, it is correct to take moderate seasonality into account when annual accounting planning of a store’s activities;
• “bright” seasonality is the most common type of seasonality among stores. The decline in demand during such “bright” seasonality can be up to 40%.
  In this case, it is necessary to take measures to increase sales during the off-season so that the store remains afloat and does not go bankrupt.

During the season, it is important to serve customers quickly and without errors; the program for automating the work of a Business.Ru store will help you with this. Thanks to it, you can sell both according to availability and place goods to order. Automatically calculate sales prices, set individual discounts and markups on products.

How to manage sales in a seasonal business. Video

Selling seasonal goods: how to support sales during the off-season

Diversifying activities

One of the most effective ways to support sales of goods during the off-season is to reorient the business, sales markets, and expand the range of products in order to obtain economic benefits.

To survive in harsh conditions economic crisis, a trading company today needs to sell goods from several different directions, in other words, the business needs to be diversified.

But in order for business diversification to be of any use, an entrepreneur must initially assess all the risks, set clear goals and determine the resources that are planned to be attracted. A good example diversification are shops that sell Christmas trees in winter, seedlings in spring, and flowers in summer.

Keep in mind that seasonal products may be out of demand. This risk especially concerns food products that will expire if they are not purchased on time.

Notify customers about a seasonal sale through the built-in mail client. This service is available in the Business.Ru store automation program. The system will tell you the results of the mailing - the number of letters sent, the percentage of letters delivered and read.

We launch “new items” for sale

If you are experiencing a seasonal decline in demand for the products sold in your store, do not bad option will take care in advance of the launch of new products or unusual seasonal offers.

The most the best months For this purpose, July and January are considered - they are the most “dead” in the winter and summer seasons, no special events or events take place, which means your new bright product or product will attract more attention from buyers.

It is during these months that you can try to interest buyers with discounts or gifts, drawing their attention to the fact that the sale of a unique new product begins, accompanied by pleasant bonuses. By “promoting” new items in this way, it will be possible to even slightly inflate their prices.

We are holding sales

It is also widespread among enterprises retail a way to sell goods during the off-season period. Many retailers believe that it is better to sell all goods that are “dead weight” in warehouses during the off-season, and put them into circulation even at a slightly reduced price.

Bright signs: “Sale of seasonal goods!” will attract the attention of buyers and it will be possible to sell snow shovels in a non-food store in the summer, and swimsuits in a clothing store at attractive prices in the winter.

We adjust the range of products

Another quite profitable way to stimulate demand for goods during the off-season is to adjust the assortment. To do this, the company must “adjust” its product range to each season.

For example, for a catering establishment this is the introduction of “warming” drinks and dishes into winter period, or vice versa, the sale of cooling drinks, okroshka and jellied meat during the hot winter months.

That is, a trading enterprise should not focus on selling “illiquid” goods during the off-season; it should devote all its efforts to selling “hot” products. It is through its sale during the off-season that the store will be able to stay afloat.

Seasonality of sales is a change in demand associated with changing seasons, temperature fluctuations, holidays, customer habits, etc. In some seasons, demand grows without much effort, in others it falls, despite all the efforts of the seller. And if trading at the peak of consumer activity brings companies super-profits, then a decline in sales entails losses and troubles.

In this article we will talk about how to prevent negative consequences seasonality of demand.

Seasonal demand or wrong strategy?

Before taking active steps, we need to find out what exactly we are dealing with. Perhaps the decline in sales is not due to seasonality, but to other market factors - the emergence of substitute products, the opening of a new supermarket in the neighborhood, or the aggressive marketing strategy of the main competitor.

To make an accurate diagnosis, you need to analyze the seasonality of sales over several years and find out whether the periods of decline coincide in time. The difference between seasonal and non-seasonal revenue will help assess the scale of the tragedy and develop an adequate plan.

If the difference in sales is only 10-20%, there is no need to worry - even everyday goods such as bread and milk are subject to such natural fluctuations in demand. This is a temporary decrease in sales, it does not cause much harm and does not require intervention.

There is no point in spending money on marketing even if in low seasons the demand for your product drops by 80-90%. The reality is that artificial trees and sparklers They sell well before the New Year and lose their relevance already in January. Accept this as a fact and move on to other products or services.

An example of seasonal fluctuations in New Year's goods.

But you can fight against a 30-40% seasonal decline. We will tell you how to do this now.

Organize trade in seasonal goods

If your product doesn't sell like hot cakes, it means that people in at the moment something else is needed. Determine which customer needs come to the fore this season and adjust your assortment.

For example, installation companies plastic windows in winter they switch to interior doors, thereby leveling out the dips in demand during the cold months. And fitness clubs, in order to retain clients, with the onset of summer, introduce new exclusive programs:

How to “wake up” clients in the off-season - an example of a fitness club

Sell ​​additional products

If you can’t find a suitable option for the main product, try placing a bet on additional goods and services, “upgrade”. From this point of view, the experience of the Leonardo hobby hypermarket chain is interesting. These stores stand out for their wide range of materials and tools for needlework, but most of the profit, as well as the main influx of customers, comes from the sale of office supplies.

On the basis of these trading platforms, festivals and master classes on handicrafts are held. They not only attract the target audience, but also smooth out the pronounced seasonality of the product, stimulating sales of paints, colored paper and fabrics for patchwork - sewing from scraps.

Offline events where buyers gather - effective way make yourself known, increase loyalty and increase sales during the off-season.

Expand your target audience

This method of dealing with falling demand has long been used in the hotel business. After the end of the “hot” season, many hotels stimulate sales by providing venues for business meetings, seminars and conferences. Thus, their clients are no longer only guests of the city, but also its residents interested in hosting the event.

An excellent example of a strategic approach to expanding the audience was shown by the Japanese cleaning company Kikuya. Seasonal downturns in the dry cleaning industry forced the managers of this company to come up with additional service- free storage of out-of-season clothing for up to 6 months. This turned out to be a real salvation for many Japanese families living in cramped apartments. Thus, the company not only increased the number of clients, but also maximally leveled the load on equipment and personnel.

The next step for Kikuya was the storage service for seasonal sports equipment - snowboards in the summer and bicycles in the winter. And then it turned out that many clients were not averse to paying for cleaning of this equipment.

A little later, after several other innovations, the company opened paid courses for managers called “Study of the Kikuya production management system.” Thus, the desire to overcome the seasonal decline in demand was the beginning of great commercial success.

Adapt to the needs of each client

Artur Salyakaev, a business coach and sales expert in Russian jewelry retail, advises working competently and individually with each of his clients. In his business, nearly half of his revenue comes from the days before January 1st and March 8th. But if sellers know birthdays and important dates their clients, they will be able to do for them great deals and actively sell jewelry throughout the year, increasing off-season sales.

Targeted sales are another way to increase activity target audience. Special offers for older travelers they help tour operators make a profit even in the “dead” seasons - after all, old people do not like the crowded summer beaches.

Pharmacies are in demand for consultations for diabetic patients with subsequent ordering of appropriate products. Not every city has a specialized store, and the number of people suffering from this disease is increasing.

A sales consultant is a living tool for increasing sales during the off-season.

Run promotions and give discounts

Don’t forget about discounts and bonuses - this is perhaps the easiest method of influencing potential consumers. shows that people are gradually getting used to seasonal sales of clothes and shoes, pre-holiday discounts and “Black Fridays”, many families specifically set aside money to buy a seasonal wardrobe during the “off-season”.

Even Russian Railways actively uses reduction factors for the sale of train tickets. And the endless promotions of Ozone and Labyrinth all year round bring considerable income.

How Russian Railways is struggling with the seasonal decline in sales.

Seasonality of business is not a problem, but an opportunity

They say that restrictions spur creativity. It will be great if, overcoming the seasonal downturn, you suddenly discover an additional direction for your business or attract a new promising audience.

But even if at the moment you do not have the opportunity to increase falling sales, this is the maximum benefit. Preparing for the next active season, reorienting your business, streamlining your client base, setting up basic processes - all this can lead you to new level income and fully recoup the unsuccessful period. But this is a topic for another article.

Anyone retail business seasonality to one degree or another. But there are goods for which high and low season s are an integral part of existence. Classic: sleigh in summer, cart in winter. And who, if not the founder of a bicycle sales company, would know about the specifics of selling seasonal goods?

Seasonality of business can be perceived in different ways - your glass is either half full or half empty. Some businessmen are taking full advantage of the temporary increase in consumer activity in order to get maximum profits and rest on their laurels until the next season. For others, on the contrary, a sharp drop in sales causes uncontrollable panic attacks. Nikolay Sadchikov, founder of the bicycle brand Bear Bike, spoke about what needs to be done in order not to go into the red, how to soberly assess your capabilities and choose the appropriate structuring option seasonal business.

There is a time for everything

Making sure your business has a season is quite simple: if weather is one of the main factors in demand fluctuations, welcome to the Club. However, in some markets, seasonality is dictated not by the time of year, but by social stereotypes, the nature of which is not always clear. For example, the countryside real estate market blossoms in the spring and dies down with the onset of autumn, while city apartments, on the contrary, are more often purchased in the winter.

In any case, a concrete economic indicator of seasonality will be a fluctuation in sales of 30% or more in the same months over the past 3-4 years. Just keep in mind the universal seasonality of purchasing activity. In the summer, big cities empty out and demand for everything drops, including out-of-season goods and services. Summer fluctuations within 10-15% of monthly sales volume are the norm for any business. It’s the same story with the holidays: in January and May, people en masse spend their time relaxing rather than shopping.

What to do in the off season?

This is perhaps the most constructive question an entrepreneur can ask himself. If you can find a simple and profitable alternative during the downturn, you won't have to deal with the complexities of a seasonal business every year.

So, strategy one. Try to sell products that have the opposite seasonality in relation to your main assortment. Many of our colleagues sell snowboards and skis in winter. In my opinion, this area is no less specific than bicycles - and there are a lot of professional retailers working in it, whom we are unlikely to be able to compete with in knowledge of the subject or reputation in the market. So, in the off-season, you can limit yourself to simple winter joys: sleds, snow scooters and cheesecakes. By the way, the latter bring good income.

Another option is a sale. If sales fell more than you planned during the low season, you can save the situation with discounts and promotions. There will always be a group of buyers who know that it is more profitable to prepare a sleigh in the summer (and a bicycle in the winter).

Strategy two. If the main headache during the off-season is not sales, but the maintenance of an expensive warehouse, it makes sense to think about retraining your space.

This venture turned out to be very dreary and not particularly profitable. I don't think we'll be trying winter storage again.

Resources

One of the main problems of a seasonal business is the annual dissolution and recruitment of staff. It’s not so difficult with sellers, but, for example, good bicycle assemblers are in great demand. In general, a high-quality specialist, like a well-built business, should have time to earn enough money for a comfortable winter over the summer. If your off-season is short, you can let people go on vacation en masse during this period. And try to respect your staff on a daily basis so that next year your best employees will want to come back to you rather than your competitors.

Another painful issue is rent. Some seasonal owners pay for it six months in advance and receive a good discount. But most landlords, alas, are in no hurry to delve into the intricacies of your business. Temporary retail space seems to be a more profitable option. We are going to test this hypothesis in practice next spring: we will place temporary container retail outlets around the city. If any of the readers have already tried this scheme, please share your experience.