When to expect the first snow of the year. When will it snow - weather forecaster's forecast

Weather anomalies V recent years have already become habitual. A year ago, for example, the first snow fell in early October and, contrary to custom, did not melt, but became the basis for permanent snow cover. What can Novosibirsk residents expect this winter and what other surprises, pleasant and not so pleasant, does the weather have in store for us in the next six months?

Photo by Alexander Vinogradov

Should we wait for Indian summer?

"Most warm weather expected in the second ten days of October, it is during this period that citizens will be able to enjoy the beauty of the golden autumn, forecasters promise. – It is expected that daytime temperatures will rise to +8...13 °C due to the cessation of precipitation. In the third decade, air temperature fluctuations at night from –3…+2 °С to –2…+7 °С, in some places up to –12 °С, in the daytime from plus 2…7 °С to –3…+2 °С are not excluded. Precipitation during this period is likely not only in the form of rain, but also with sleet.”

The average monthly air temperature in October will be +1...2 °C, this is within normal limits; in the southwest of the region it is 1 °C below normal. The amount of precipitation is expected to be around the long-term average; a shortage of precipitation is expected in the southwest of the region.

Photo by Alexander Vinogradov

When it snows

In November 2017, periodic incursions of cold are expected, which will reduce the average temperature of the month to −8...−10°C, relative to the norm – 1°C lower, only in the southern part of the region – within the normal range. At night, the temperature can drop to −10…−15 °C, with clearing in some places down to -20 °C, in the second half of the month in some places −22…−27 °C.

A stable snow cover this year should be established in the first ten days of November. Overall for the month, precipitation in November is expected to be around the long-term average. Snow and sleet are more often expected in the second and third five-day days of the month and on most days of the third ten-day period.

Photo by Alexander Vinogradov

How will we spend the winter?

In December average temperature The air temperature is expected to be around average long-term values, -13...-15 °C, in the extreme southeast of the region, in the foothills of the Sayan Mountains - 1 °C below normal. Precipitation in December is also expected to be within normal limits.

In January, the weather is expected to be colder than last year and below the climate norm by 1-2 °C, only in the north-west of the region it is near normal. The average monthly air temperature in the first month of 2018 will be −17…−19 °C. The amount of precipitation in January is expected to be around the average climate data, the norm.

February will be warmer than usual: frequent occurrence of southern cyclones is expected with the removal of warm air masses, which will cause the temperature background to be 1 °C higher than normal. The average monthly air temperature in February can be −13…−16 °C. There is a very high probability of frequent and heavy precipitation, the total for the month will be more than normal; only in the southeast of the region, with the greater influence of the Siberian anticyclone, precipitation will not exceed normal.

March thaw

For the first time spring month In most areas of the region, winter weather conditions with frosts and even snowstorms still remain. But with an increase in influx solar radiation There is a steady increase in air temperature from the beginning to the end of the month by about 10 °C. The forecast for March 2018 assumes average monthly temperature air -5...−9 °С, which is 1−2 °С higher than normal. Precipitation amounts are expected to be within long-term averages.

According to popular belief, the first snow always fell on Pokrov Holy Mother of God, which symbolizes the close presence of severe frosts and winter precipitation. However, when not a single snowflake formed in Moscow on October 14, residents became worried about when snow would actually fall in 2017 and why the weather conditions characteristic of this region were disrupted.

Cold cyclone zone
Start of a new week

Forecasters promised a snowy winter in 2017–2018

This spring, weather forecasters predicted a snowy winter for 2017-2018. Experts said that winter would come into its own in November. According to weather service forecasts, we were promised that not only the capital of Russia would “sink” in snow-covered snowdrifts, but also the entire central part of the country and even its most remote corners. Already from mid-November, Moscow will freeze due to frosts, which will not be very strong, but still noticeable.

Muscovites have long been advised to keep warm winter clothes at the ready. And also don’t forget about your transport: it’s best to change your summer tires now, before the snow arrives and ice forms on the roads. Otherwise, after just a few days there is a risk of rolling off the road to the side of the road, and this is in the best case. But long queues at technical centers for tire replacement can no longer be avoided.

Cold cyclone zone

The Russian capital is “entering” the cold cyclone zone this coming weekend, which will inevitably lead to a drop in temperature and the formation of ice crystals in upper layers atmosphere. Forecasters warn motorists about deteriorating visibility and a high probability of wet snow falling in the capital and region, which is associated with the direct influence of a thunderstorm front.

The weekend is expected to be no longer cold like autumn. On Saturday, October 21, weather forecasters predict night frosts down to -3 degrees, and during the day only up to +5 degrees. On Sunday, October 22, the night will be colder – down to -4 degrees. And during the day the thermometer will no longer show above-zero temperatures: -1 is expected.

If we compare it with the air temperature, which stayed the same throughout last week, it actually dropped a couple of degrees over the weekend. Moreover, on Sunday weather forecasters promise mixed precipitation. Muscovites will finally get the long-promised snow. But in the form of precipitation there may also be rain and snow, which will have a detrimental effect on the road situation. Since the temperature is already below zero at night, all the slush will freeze and turn into black ice.

Start of a new week

It will become even colder at night from the beginning of the new year. working week. Forecasters from the Phobos meteorological center spoke about the weather forecast for Monday, October 23. Temperatures down to -5 degrees are expected overnight on Monday and Tuesday. And there is a chance that it will snow, without rain.

Fluffy snowflakes will cover Moscow with a beautiful waltz, which will not quickly turn into slush, but will cover the city streets with a snow-white carpet. You can admire such beauty for several days, until warm earth will not melt all the snowflakes.

What will the coming winter bring to Russia?

At the beginning of October, Vladimir Semenov, head of the climatology laboratory of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Institute of Geography Russian Academy Sciences) spoke about what kind of winter will come to the Russian capital in 2017. According to the expert, record frosts should not be expected; there will be frosts, but only for short periods. In general, winter in Moscow will be surprisingly warm.

According to experts, there has been a warming over the last 10 years. This applies to all parts of our large and vast Russia. But do not forget that severe frosts are always possible in winter. But in lately There are very few of them - maximum freezing lasts about two weeks.

December has become significantly warmer compared to December ten years ago. The thermometer in the first month of winter will be fixed at -20 degrees. Sharp warming is possible, which has recently become characteristic of Russian December.

January does not promise any surprises in terms of abnormal cold weather for Muscovites. But February, according to the Hydrometeorological Center, will not last long in the capital. From mid-February the thermometer will not drop below -13 degrees and Muscovites will already be able to feel the approach of the long-awaited spring.
Of course, the weather forecast that weather forecasters provide us is not 100 percent. Climate experts themselves are skeptical about their forecasts, since the weather is a rather unpredictable phenomenon.

Every person who cares about the future certainly asks himself what the winter of 2017-2018 in Russia will be like in order to know what exactly to prepare for in the coming period. Such thoughts occur not only to residents of those settlements, which directly depend on weather conditions living in villages, villages, towns. And city dwellers are very dependent on the vagaries of the weather, so each of us simply needs to understand what the inevitable winter period.

Winter 2017-2018: general forecast from weather forecasters

Modern society is closely connected with progress and new developments in the field of science and technology, but still the current understanding of all these processes does not allow scientists how far to predict weather behavior. Therefore, it is worth understanding that each statement describing the natural mood for the winter of 2017-2018 is only preliminary, although very probable.

Meteorologists suggest that the coming winter of 2017-2018 in Russia will be very traditional and in most regions of our country will not differ from the previous ones. Only the eastern regions of Russia can feel some of the changes caused by climate change throughout our planet. It is believed that for this reason the weather changes will be more dramatic than usual, but in general this will not spoil the overall picture.

Important! The probabilistic weather forecast for the winter presented below applies only to the Central region of the Russian Federation.

What will the weather be like by month?

The warmest period will be mid-December 2017 and early February 2018. The first snowfalls will occur at the end of autumn, they will be very heavy and will create the impression of a real fabulous Russian winter. But after a few weeks, all this beauty will melt away, and you will have to take care of waterproof shoes. Before the New Year, the thermometer will drop again, and snow will fall in most central regions of the country. The most severe frosts should be expected in February for almost the entire final half of February.

What will December 2017 be like?

Winter will come earlier than expected - back in November 2017. Residents of our country will be pleasantly surprised by how comfortable and joyful the atmosphere will greet them during the winter of this season. Severe frosts are not expected, only a pleasant -5° -9° degrees during daylight hours. But the middle of the month can somewhat spoil the mood of everyone who dreams of endless winter's tale. There will be a brief warming that will last about a week. In general, 2017 will end with mild cold - up to -5° during the day and up to -7° -10° at night, with moderate precipitation, but rather cloudy skies.

What will January 2018 be like?

January is the most long-awaited month winter, because it includes a large number of everyone’s favorite holidays and... To the delight of all Russians, January 2018 will give us a pleasant New Year holidays. The first part of the month will pass in a comfortable -6-10 degrees during the day without strong winds or precipitation. By Epiphany there will be frosts down to -20° -25° during the day. They will last about three days, and after that, the thermometer will creep up, lulling the vigilance of everyone who has decided that winter is losing its position.

What will February 2018 be like?

The shortest winter month will also be the most unpredictable. Due to rapid temperature changes, the weather can change dramatically in just one night.
In mid-February, most of the Central Federal District will experience heavy precipitation in the form of snow. The wind at this time will be strong and gusty, which will significantly complicate movement. By the end of February, it will become warmer for a few days, which will give you the opportunity to warm up and get ready for the spring period.

Weather in winter 2017-2018 in Moscow and St. Petersburg

Because large cities generate a lot of heat, their city limits will typically be several degrees warmer even in the coldest weather. Overall described above temperature regime relevant for Moscow and St. Petersburg. The only exception The only thing that will happen is that in St. Petersburg, much more is expected cloudy days throughout the winter, and during the thaw period the precipitation will be much heavier than in Moscow.

Climatologists talk about a general warming trend. However, short periods of frost this winter are also not excluded.

The coming winter in the capital will be quite warm, and frosts can only set in for short periods.

This was stated on October 3 by the head of the climatology laboratory at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAN), Vladimir Semenov.

Not very good news for heat lovers. Forecasters warned that Muscovites could expect worsening weather conditions as early as mid-October. The short-term warming will soon end, and rain will be replaced by sleet in Moscow.

Over the past week, residents of the capital have been enjoying the warmth. In the central region of Russia, this weather will persist until the middle of the week, but then it will get colder. In the middle of the month, weather forecasters predict frosts and precipitation in the form of sleet.

“If now we are enjoying the September warmth, then at the end of the week we will find out what November is like in Moscow,” said Marina Makarova, a representative of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center. According to her, currently the average air temperature in Moscow is approximately six degrees above normal.

“Small rains, clouds - humid Atlantic air comes to us, small wave cyclones occur. The weather pattern will change in the second half of the week,” Interfax quotes a representative of the Hydrometeorological Center as saying.

According to forecasts, on October 14 in the capital the air will warm up to ten degrees, there will be no precipitation. October 15th will also strike temperature records, showing a mark of plus 12 or even 14 degrees on the thermometer. However, this Indian summer will end. “On Thursday (October 16), colder air from the north and northeast will begin to penetrate into the rear of the cyclone. At night in Moscow the air temperature is expected to be around seven degrees,” Makarova said.

She said that a more significant drop in temperature is expected on the night of October 17. “The influx of air masses from the north continues, the cyclone moves east. In Moscow, daytime temperatures are expected to range from plus two to plus seven degrees. On Saturday (October 18) there will be a further drop in temperature - at night from minus four to plus one, in the daytime from zero to plus five. In some places, the likelihood of precipitation will remain, including in the form of wet snow,” noted a representative of the Hydrometeorological Center.

In the near future, air temperatures in the Moscow region will be three degrees below normal. “Some drivers will rush to change summer tires to winter ones. Someone will not do this, and they will probably be right, since we are waiting for the next heat wave. But the question is how intense it will be. Main feature this period is unstable, the weather changes will be sharp and fast,” Makarova concluded.

First snow in Moscow 2017: winter weather forecast

December:

In December, frosts already completely dominate our country. Sometimes it happens that real winter takes Russian citizens by surprise already in November. In the last month of autumn, the nights become quite frosty, and the days are no less warm.

In the first period of winter, warming occurs extremely often. From the first days of December, the thermometer will remain at minus 20 degrees. At the same time, the weather will be quite changeable, and sudden warming is possible.

Let's take for example, today there is a 10-degree frost outside, and tomorrow the temperature will sharply drop to minus 23 degrees. Temperatures will stabilize by mid-December. Average will be equal to minus 15. The last days of the month will already freeze the residents of Moscow thoroughly. There is an option that the temperature will drop even more, and drop to minus 20 degrees.

Also in December awaits Muscovites fluffy snow. However, one cannot deny the possibility of a thaw and the appearance of rain, which can turn into hail. There should be enough snow for children to build their own fairytale snow castles, and for adults to enjoy the enchanting snow-covered forests.

To the long-awaited New Year's Eve Temperatures are expected to drop to minus 15 degrees. Also on this magical night there is a possibility of light snow, which will put everyone in the New Year's mood.

January:

If you check the forecasts of weather forecasters, then January 2017-2018 in Moscow will be normal if you compare it with previous periods.

The average temperature will be minus 20 degrees below zero. In the first days of January, warming is possible; the column may show Muscovites a temperature of minus 5 degrees.

January is a dangerous month in terms of the appearance of colds and quite large quantity viral diseases. From the 15th the temperature will stop at minus 15 degrees.

Also, January will delight the residents of the capital with alluring frost and winter charm. But last days January will be very changeable, and not everyone will be able to keep up with changes in the weather.

Also, one should not be surprised by strong temperature fluctuations from minus 5 to minus 25 degrees. But you don’t need to be afraid of this, you just need to prepare in a timely manner.

In January, the snow will continue to fall and cover the ground with a layer of snow. It will not do without a strong wind; it will bring with it noticeable frost and a “bouquet” of colds.

February:

As the Hydrometeorological Center promises, winter in Moscow will not be long. In February you will be able to feel the first signs of warmth and an imminent green spring. But you will see all this only at the end of February. The first days of the month will be quite cold and with noticeable winds.

The average temperature at the beginning of the month will be minus 15 degrees, and starting from mid-February the temperature will drop to minus 23. After the 20th, the weather will stop changing and settle at minus 13 degrees. February is considered to be the windiest month of winter. Wind often causes colds and various infections.

Meteorologists are critical of their own promises. Over the past 17 years, their predictions have come true with a probability of 58-80 percent!

– This forecast is published mainly for agriculture, energy, transport,” says Marina Makarova, chief specialist of the Hydrometeorological Center. - We must understand that this is a probabilistic forecast - exact values We do not give in degrees. A more accurate household forecast can be given seven days in advance. In addition, we cannot yet say anything about precipitation - whether this winter will be snowier than last or not.

There is still a lot of time before the cold weather begins, but people already want to know when winter will come in Russia in 2019-2020 and what to expect from nature this time. The main thing is to find out which period will be the harshest in order to prepare everything you need for a comfortable winter. Of course, accurate data comes out within 3 – 7 days, but based on average statistical data from the Hydrometeorological Center, it is possible to compile preliminary forecast for three months.

What kind of winter will it be like according to weather forecasters?

Domestic weather forecasters do not predict abnormal low temperatures. Even if severe frosts hit some regions of the Russian Federation, they will not last more than 2 weeks of each month. Most of the central regions will experience fairly mild weather and cold period match the current season's performance. As for the eastern and northern regions, already in the first days of December, the thermometer will drop below –30°C. Residents of the Komi Republic, Siberia and Perm region.

Heavy snowfalls should be expected at the end of November, but the snow will not last long and will melt in just a week. Then he will go with new strength at the beginning of December. In this case, the air temperature will show –12, -10°С. There is also less rainfall than last year. But in different regions, snow cover can reach 50 cm. In general, winter will have the following characteristics:

early but moderate;
at the beginning of December there is heavy snowfall, but by the middle of the month the snow will melt;
at the end of December there are moderate frosts and light precipitation;
the first 2 weeks of January will experience warm and windy weather;
severe frosts are expected in the second half and first of February, and a thaw will begin at the end.

Weather forecast in Moscow and St. Petersburg

Moscow. In the capital, the weather will be milder than it was in 2019. But weather forecasters promise severe frosts at the end of January and 7-10 days in February. The rest of the time, winter will be moderately frosty. On average, daytime temperatures will remain at -12, -10°C. Thaws are also likely, resulting in high humidity.

Petersburg. Every year the average temperature in the northern capital does not exceed -7 - 8°C. Therefore, one should not expect a significant change in the regime. Only at night, frosts can intensify to -20°C. Despite the fact that the cold in St. Petersburg is relatively mild, it is felt more acutely because climatic conditions differ high humidity and strong winds.

Forecast for each month

It should be taken into account that preliminary data are compiled taking into account long-term observations from the Hydrometeorological Center and are not accurate indicator real weather in 2019. Therefore, you should familiarize yourself with reliable information a few days before the start of winter. As a rule, weather forecasters publish the forecast on major TV channels and other media.

December	The first half of the month will be warm. Snow will cover the ground in almost all regions of the country. The average temperature will fluctuate between -15 and -10°C. But in the northern and eastern regions it will drop to -30 - 20°C. Residents of the southern part of the Russian Federation can expect fairly mild weather. During the day the temperature will remain at 0 degrees, and at night up to -7. There will be heavy snowfall in Moscow and St. Petersburg. During the daytime, the temperature will be comfortable for winter -8 degrees. At night it will freeze a little to -18.
January	The beginning of the month will resemble the previous period, but already on the 15th you need to take care of a warm wardrobe, as... Temperatures can drop to -25°C in middle lane Russia, and in northern regions up to -40. In a week, the frosts will gradually subside. It will remain -10 in the capital and central part of the country until the end of the month. Moreover, heavy snowfalls are expected throughout the entire territory at this time. It should be noted that temperature variations are expected. Therefore, light frosts will alternate with precipitation.
February	Last month winter is characterized by sharp changes in air temperature. At the beginning, severe frosts are typical. In some areas they will reach -30°C. The middle of the month will delight lovers winter activities heavy snowfalls. But in two weeks, the weather will become sharply warmer. The first spring thaws will begin to gain momentum. During the day the temperature will be no more than -2 degrees, and at night it can drop to -10. You also need to take into account that you shouldn’t wait for real warmth until the end of March.

Weather in Russia for New Year 2020

According to many years of observations, winter gives Russians a gift for the holidays - heavy snowfall and a comfortable air temperature of -7°C. But on January 1 it will warm up a little to -3. Then the frost will gradually become stronger and by the New Year it can reach -25 degrees, and in the north and east of the country up to -40. and St. Petersburg, -10°C is expected for New Year's celebrations. In the south the thermometer will drop to -5. In general, no abnormal cold is expected in the central regions.

Folk signs of winter

In fact, even the most high-tech instruments will not be able to predict the weather several months in advance. Climatic manifestations still remain a mystery to weather forecasters. But they can cope with this task folk signs. Now the climate has changed significantly. Several decades ago there was more harsh winter, but the basic patterns remain the same:

Rainy July and August, dry September and October - late and long winter.
Warm September- late frosts.
Rowan berries, mushrooms and acorns gave birth - long-lasting and cold winter.
Thin peel on autumn vegetables To warm winter.
Leaves fall from the trees late - heavy frosts.
The bullfinches have arrived - expect winter to come soon.
Mosquitoes late autumn – early frosts.
The first snow fell - after 40 days there were big frosts.
The first snow fell on trees with no fallen leaves - severe frosts and fierce February.
It snowed on December 12 - expect the same weather for another week.