The folk calendar predicts a very harsh winter. Accurate weather forecast from Leonid Gorban How to build a forecast from the signs of December

In the coming year, we are promised a frosty end to winter and a “tropical” summer - hot and rainy. This is the long-term weather forecast from the famous national weather forecaster Leonid Gorban, writes Segodnya.

In his forecasts, Gorban is guided by the ancient methodology of the so-called “Bryusov calendar”, in which weather calculations are carried out using the number series of the planets and folk signs. (“Today” I wrote about this in detail on January 15, 2016 - Author). The annual weather is controlled in turn by the Sun, Moon and five planets: Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn. The past year was the year of the Sun, the coming year is the year of Venus, the next one will pass under the sign of Mercury.

As Gorban admits, the accuracy of the average forecast for all of Ukraine is approximately 75%, but for individual regions the probability of its calculations reaches 95%. In the past year, the national weather forecaster, in particular, correctly predicted the February cold, a late but hot summer, and an early rainy autumn.

“The Year of Venus is more wet than dry,” says Gorban. - The spring is expected to be cool and damp: March will be cold, April and March will also not be hot and dry. Summer is humid and moderately warm. The years of Venus are fruitful for ear crops, but the danger is that during the harvesting period there are heavy and prolonged rains, which leads to loss of harvest. Autumn is warm at first, then cold, and frosts are possible already at the end of October. The winter is moderate, dry at first, then cold, very snowy, which will lead to large river floods.”

The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center and climate scientists, unlike Narodnik, argue that it is difficult to make even an approximate weather forecast, since it is influenced by many uncalculated factors, for example, solar activity, volcanic eruptions, and the behavior of the World Ocean. But they all admit that over the past 5-6 years the weather, both in Ukraine and in the world, has become more unstable.

“2018 is expected to be an average year, perhaps rainier than usual. As in the previous 2-3 years due to global warming Frequent temperature changes are possible, especially in summer - hot weather will briefly be replaced by cool weather, then heat again, thunderstorms again.”, Anatoly Prokopenko, deputy head of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, analyzes.

Leading researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Svetlana Boychenko explained to us that many factors are to blame for the increasing frequency of “weather swings” that have become common over the past few years.

“There are several hypotheses why the weather is behaving strangely now. These are long-term processes on the Sun (not the famous 11-year, but 60-year cycles), and the intensification of volcanic activity, and the World Ocean, which either binds greenhouse gases, then releases them into the atmosphere again, this also reduces or increases the temperature, - Boychenko told us. - We conducted long-term research into how the annual amplitude of the temperature variation changed in Ukraine (between the lowest and the highest high temperature. - Author).

It turned out that winters in Ukraine have become much warmer, but for some reason the summers are not much hotter, or even cooler, than 20-25 years ago. But over the past 10 years, a summer climate anomaly has also begun to appear; summers are becoming hotter. It seems that due to global warming, which is coupled with factors such as intensified volcanic eruptions that throw clouds of ash into the atmosphere, there is an imbalance in the weather. But we expect that after 2020 the anomalies will subside. This process has already begun, and every year temperature amplitudes are becoming smaller and by 2030 there will be no such sharp changes as we are seeing now.”

This year, in addition to sharp summer weather fluctuations, Boychenko promises severe but short-lived frosts in January and February.