Latest news about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The Astana process on Syria may fail

The year 2018 in Syria began immediately with a mass of high-profile events. If in the past the main event was the almost complete destruction " Islamic State", now all attention is focused on the fierce confrontation between foreign participants civil war in an Arab republic. The clash between Russian mercenaries and the American military caused a lot of noise. This is not surprising, since this is the first officially confirmed case after the collapse Soviet Union. Moreover, as a result of this skirmish, a still unknown number of Russian citizens died. But perhaps most of all world community this year is concerned about what is happening in northeast Syria.

This is connected with the war, or rather, with a new stage of this very war. At its origins lies Türkiye, which is concerned about the problem of Kurdish separatists in Syria. The YPG, under the auspices of the United States of America, managed to take control of almost all of northern Syria, and as a result, their self-proclaimed state extended to the very borders of Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey sees this as a great threat to itself, since a united Kurdistan may lay claim to the lion's share of its territories in the future. In general, Turkey, together with the Free Syrian Army, is actively attacking the positions of the People's Protection Units in the north-west of Aleppo. But recently, local pro-government forces have joined this confrontation.

Apparently, this is due to Damascus’ reluctance to see Turkish interventionists within the official borders of its state, even if this area has not been controlled by the local government for a long time. The current moment is perhaps the most convenient to change this situation. And now the flags of the self-proclaimed Kurdish state and the Syrian Arab Republic fly over Afrin. It is difficult to say how much this will hinder Turkey, but it is obvious that hardly anyone could have expected such a turn of events just a few months ago.

The most surprising thing is that military clashes regularly occur between the Syrian Arab Army and the People's Protection Units in another part of the country - in the province of Deir ez-Zor. Against this background, their cooperation in Aleppo looks unusual, to say the least. In addition, there is a high probability that Damascus took such measures without consulting Moscow, which is Bashar al-Assad’s main ally and his savior. In essence, Assad gave the green light to a deal with his enemies, who, before Turkey intervened, were ready to carry out any order from Washington. Now the Americans have somewhat disappointed the Kurds, but they still receive weapons and money from the States. Does this mean that a new redistribution of spheres of influence between the leading geopolitical players in the region has begun in Syria?

Turkish military expert Keram Yildirim believes that Assad took such actions against the Kremlin because he agreed to the US conditions. In his opinion, it was Washington that initiated this temporary alliance between the People's Self-Defense Units and pro-government forces. Unable to stop Turkey on its own, the United States decided to help the Kurds in a different way - to attract significant pro-Assad forces.

Before the “Olive Branch” began (the name of the Turkish military operation against the Kurds - approx.), many negotiations were held. Erdogan said that he consulted with Russia and the United States. The Americans were dissatisfied, and as last time (we are talking about the last Turkish operation against the People's Self-Defense Units "Euphrates Shield - author)) they did everything to hinder Turkey. They assured that their weapons had not reached Afrin for a long time, but they ended up not only there, but even to terrorists in Turkey. The US doesn't respect the interests of its allies, then why doesn't it like it when someone doesn't play by their rules? Turkey has realized the threat that comes from the fact that the United States patronizes the YPG (abbreviation of the People's Self-Defense Units in Kurmanji - author), so this alliance must be eliminated before the terrorists themselves. Türkiye should stop at nothing.

“SP”: - How will the introduction of pro-government troops into Afrin affect the course of this operation?

It's very strange why this happened. YPG approached Assad and he immediately agreed? Thousands of his soldiers were killed by the YPG, and he immediately believed them? This could not have happened without the participation of the United States. The Americans organized a meeting with representatives or some military leaders of the regime, and at this meeting guarantees were given from the United States. These guarantees are worthless, but people always believe them.

It seems that the Americans have promised to leave Afrin to Assad. Türkiye did not object to the regime’s army being in place of the YPG. It would be safer for Turkey. Such circumstances could even significantly ease the pressure on Assad from Turkey, but now Assad has chosen terrorists. It's not just like that. The United States could promise him to recognize his right to the presidency, they could promise the lifting of sanctions, and so on. He probably believed it. And this could end badly. If this is true, then Assad began to play according to the US script, which means that he betrayed Russia. Putin and Erdogan should discuss the problem and solve it together, because this is very important for Turkey and Russia. By working together, countries can put pressure on the United States and save themselves from big problems.

Russian political scientist and orientalist Karine Gevorkyan believes that the conflict in Afrin will not affect Russian interests in Syria in the near future. But in the future a lot may depend on it.

“SP”: - What forces were deployed by Damascus to Afrin?

There are not many government troops there, because the main fighting They are going in a completely different area - in Eastern Ghouta. Units arrived mainly in Afrin people's militia. They are pro-Assad and were created at the beginning of the civil war in Syria. They consist of nine heterogeneous groups - there are Bedouins, Christians, Druze and so on. They are not the Syrian army, they are Syrian civilian combatants. So they entered Afrin.

“SP”: - How will Türkiye behave after their appearance in the region?

Turkey's reaction, as we see, is nervous. The Turks knew in advance that this would happen. Because negotiations between the Syrian side and the Kurds went on for quite a long time, and the decision to bring in pro-government forces was made on February 16. And on the 17th, the Turkish side decided to force events, and as a result of this, a number of Syrian settlements. Another question: what is the very nature of this agreement between the Kurds and Damascus? Kurdish leaders say this is a purely military arrangement, but let's hope it is peaceful.

“SP”: - Are these agreements beneficial for Russia or do they harm its plans in Syria?

It is impossible to say for sure, because the intentions of the parties are still unknown. There are many rumors, but these rumors fit into the overall picture. There was a leak of information from the Kurdish side that Russian representatives proposed to local forces to transfer Afrin to the control of Damascus. In addition, it would be strange if Russia were not present at the Lebanese negotiations (the Kurds and the Syrian government were negotiating regarding a joint presence in Afrin in Lebanon - author). She, of course, was aware and took part, just like Iran.

“SP”: - Kurdish sources are spreading information that the Russian Federation is assisting Turkey in Afrin. It gives Turkish troops a corridor in the northern part of Aleppo.

May be. The point here is that the Kurds for a long time ignored Russia's proposals. For a long time, the Kurds did not want to come to an agreement, relying only on the Americans. Naturally, the Russian side washed its hands of the matter and moved on to other matters in Syria. After this, numerous accusations of betrayal and everything else rained down on Russia from the Kurds. In particular, Sipan Hemo (head of the people's self-defense units - author) blamed Russia. A large Kurdish delegation was immediately sent to Washington. But now everything is different. The Kurds came to their senses and stopped making such claims. But now they can rightly accuse the United States of betrayal, and this applies not only to Afrin, but to Deir ez-Zor.

“SP”: - So, is this still beneficial for Russia or not?

Despite all the friendship with Erdogan, Russia does not benefit from the Turkish presence in Afrin. Türkiye will not completely turn its back on the United States. After all, there are several American bases in Turkey. Sooner or later, Türkiye will again be a reliable ally of the United States, and this is bad for Russia in the long term. If it is not Erdogan who will again move towards rapprochement with the United States, then someone will do it after him. And that’s why Russia doesn’t need it. This will be the collapse of Syria, and Moscow is not interested in this.

Russia is asking all parties to the conflict in Syria to begin peace negotiations, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said this week. This is a very timely call - in the suburbs of Damascus these days, judging by eyewitness accounts, the most intense bombings since 2013 are taking place. The war, which for many seemed already over, risks flaring up these days with renewed vigor. Correspondence confrontation between Israel and Iran, eastern Ghouta, Afrin - three new centers of conflict have appeared in Syria, which has been going on for almost seven years.

At the Golan Heights: confrontation between Israel and Iran

The most explosive, although least visible today, is the tension between Israel and Iran, which has risen sharply since the beginning of the month. On February 11, the Israeli army shot down a drone over its territory, which the Israelis are sure belonged to Iran. In response, an Israeli Air Force F-16 fighter carried out an attack on military targets in Syria on the same day, including the Al-Tiyas airbase (T-4), but was shot down by Syrian air defense forces on the way back. This is the first such loss since 1982 for Israel, which captured the Syrian Golan Heights during the Six-Day War in 1967. Israeli fighters soon carried out another strike - on 12 different military targets in Syria.

The aggravation is taking place both on the military and diplomatic fronts - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sharply spoke out against the Iranian leadership at the Munich Security Conference on February 18. It has observers wary of further escalation. Israel's main concern is the prospect of Iranian military bases appearing on Syrian territory in close proximity to Israel. As a defensive measure, the Israeli army is actively discussing the issue of a large-scale operation in Syria, as well as a preventive strike on Iran’s ally, the military wing of the Hezbollah movement operating in Lebanon.

In the fall, military exercises took place in Israel to practice a possible attack on Lebanon. Last week, construction began on new 11-kilometer-long border fortifications on the border with Lebanon. According to the Süddeutsche Zeitung, israeli army V last days concentrated additional military forces at strategically important points. The Israeli army leadership said that what was happening was “much less than a war, but more than a simple clash.”

Russia has behaved neutrally in this conflict, not interfering with either Iran or Israel - for example, carrying out attacks on Syrian territory, although Moscow is believed to effectively control the skies of Syria with the help of anti-aircraft missile systems S-300 and S-400.

Afrin: Türkiye, Kurds and a call from Moscow

The second outbreak is located on the other side of Syria - on the border with Turkey, in the area of ​​​​the city of Afrin, which is held by the forces of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). Türkiye views the armed forces of the Kurds as terrorist organization and, according to Ankara, for the sake of its own security it is conducting Operation Olive Branch to neutralize them.

The conflict threatens to escalate as pro-Assad armed groups began arriving to help the Kurds this week. Earlier, the Turkish President said that the advance of the so-called “militia” groups was stopped after his telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

When the column of armed men moved forward, Turkish aircraft made an attempt to stop it, but two of the three groups still drove into the battle zone near Afrin with slogans on banners: “The people of Syria are united,” eyewitnesses say. During the month of Operation Olive Branch, the Turkish army has not yet managed to significantly advance deeper into the territory controlled by the Kurds.

Both observers and commanders of Kurdish armed groups call assistance from pro-Assad forces insufficient and rather symbolic. According to YPG estimates, several hundred armed men arrived at the front line. Moreover, in return for assistance in Afrin, Assad’s forces, judging by eyewitness reports, expect to squeeze the Kurds out of a number of areas of the city of Aleppo, which they control along with government troops.

Russia offered itself as a mediator between Turkey and Assad to resolve the situation in Afrin.

Eastern Ghouta: a new humanitarian disaster

Forces controlled by Bashar al-Assad have been besieging this area in the Damascus suburbs for several years. On at the moment There are up to 400 thousand people there. Eastern Ghouta is controlled by militant groups - both radical Islamic and democratic opposition. Since early February, government forces have been preparing to attack one of the last strongholds of the uprising with massive bombings.

The reason for the attack, according to official data, was shelling of Damascus areas by rebels. Assad's army uses both airplanes and helicopters for bombing. The intensity of the attacks is unprecedented in the Syrian civil war: according to estimates by the human rights organization Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, 3,000 strikes in three days, starting last Sunday.

Context

Witnesses claim that prohibited international agreements cluster bombs, and schools, hospitals and other peaceful objects are attacked. Syrian government officials deny this. The number of victims over the past few days, according to the organization Doctors Without Borders, amounted to 237 people only in those hospitals where its employees are located. About 1,300 more people were injured.

Eyewitnesses and Syrians remaining in eastern Ghouta describe living conditions in the besieged area as impossible: lack of medicine, food, clean water under conditions of constant bombing. “This is comparable to what happened in Aleppo,” say employees of the humanitarian organization SOS Kinderdörfer, which was forced to leave the eastern Ghouta area on February 21.

The offensive on Ghouta is being carried out despite Russian-Turkish-Iranian agreements that the area will become a de-escalation zone. According to the United States and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is close to the opposition, the bombing of eastern Ghouta also involved Russian aviation. However, the Kremlin calls such accusations “groundless.”

See also:

According to the UN, attacks by Syrian government forces in Eastern Ghouta since mid-February have killed about 600 people and injured about 2,000. Among the dead and wounded are many women and children. The photo shows the settlement of Arbin in Eastern Ghouta after the bombing on February 20.



Humanitarian disaster in Eastern Ghouta

Eastern Ghouta is located in close proximity to the Syrian capital Damascus. According to the UN, up to 400 thousand people may be in the besieged enclave.



Humanitarian disaster in Eastern Ghouta

Officially, Eastern Ghouta is one of the “de-escalation zones” in Syria, the creation of which Russia, Turkey and Iran agreed in May 2017.



Humanitarian disaster in Eastern Ghouta

The situation of civilians in Eastern Ghouta is catastrophic, said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.



Humanitarian disaster in Eastern Ghouta

According to observers, the Syrian army and its allies are bombing Eastern Ghouta in preparation for a ground operation.



Humanitarian disaster in Eastern Ghouta

In the region, in just two days of fierce fighting (February 19-20), six clinics were put out of action, including the most important hospital in Arbin, which was bombed twice. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights SOHR, this medical facility was the target of attacks by Russian warplanes.



Humanitarian disaster in Eastern Ghouta

Secretary General UN Antonio Guterres condemned the attacks on hospitals in Eastern Ghouta. He said that more than 700 sick and wounded people needed urgent evacuation.

Three candidates took part in the presidential elections in Syria - current President Bashar al-Assad, parliament member Maher Abdul Hafiz Hajar and former Minister of Administrative Development Hassan Abdullah al-Nuri. The presidential elections took place on June 3, 2014. What role did they play in political life countries?

Comments: expert of the Center for Scientific Political Thought and Ideology Igor Putintsev

Until recently, at the height of the so-called During the Arab Spring in 2011–2012, the idea was widespread that Russia should not support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, since his regime was doomed. The following arguments were given:

Firstly, the collapse of ruling regimes that had existed for decades in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and the change of power in Yemen created a suitable “backdrop” for events. Syria, where the Assad clan has ruled since 1971, could become a link in this chain;

Secondly, Assad faced severe external pressure - Western countries, the Gulf monarchies and Turkey openly opposed him. Some of these states have facilitated the transfer and arming of anti-government fighters;

Thirdly, it was emphasized that Assad represents a minority of the country’s population on a religious basis – the Alawites, who make up about 15% of the population. Given that Sunnis make up about 70% of the country's population, the prospects for increased support for Sunni radicalism seemed real.

However, the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad did not occur. At the same time, Assad does not have the charisma of Muammar Gaddafi or the military authority of Hosni Mubarak. And yet he remained in power. Why?

Firstly, Assad managed to prevent the internal political conflict with the active intervention of external forces from escalating into a full-scale interfaith and interethnic confrontation. If a massive Sunni uprising began in the country, supported by most of the Sunni elite, then the Assad government would be doomed. But a significant part of both the Sunni population and the elite remained loyal to the government. Syria has traditionally been a country in which the equal status of numerous faiths and peoples was the norm. Despite the fact that in recent decades the post of president has been occupied by representatives of the Alawite Assad clan, Sunni representation in the political and business elite has been very wide. Their interests were taken into account: it was during the reign of the Assads that political instability ceased in Syria and long-term rules of the game were established.

Attempts to do this only by relying on minorities would obviously fail. It symbolizes the union of Alawites and Sunnis and the fact that Asma, the wife of Bashar al-Assad, is a Sunni.

After the outbreak of the civil war, part of the Sunni elite went over to the side of Assad’s opponents: for example, the family of General Mustafa Tlas, who headed the Ministry of Defense from 1972 to 2002, Riyad Hijab, who briefly headed the government in 2012, several generals and dozens of officers fled the country. But the core of the Sunni elite surrounded by Bashar al-Assad has been preserved: at present, both vice-presidents of the country, the prime minister, the heads of the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the main intelligence department, etc. are Sunnis. The Sunnis have a strong position in the officer corps and business. Sunnis also make up the majority of ordinary military personnel fighting against extremists.

How can we explain that the government managed to maintain the support of most Sunnis? Probably, one should look for an explanation in the fact that among the opposition militants, a significant part, if not the majority, are Islamists from other countries (jihadists), who are “newcomers” in Syria. They do not know Syrian realities and adhere to extremist political views. The Sunni population is not ready to provide them with widespread support, especially after attempts to quickly overthrow the government failed, and the jihadists were responsible for unleashing a fratricidal war in a previously united country. Most of the political, military and business elite of the Sunnis are afraid of a jihadist victory - there is an understanding that they, like representatives of minorities, will face reprisals in such a scenario.

Secondly, Representatives of religious and ethnic minorities are fighting in support of Assad. Minorities make up about a third of the country's population, and many of them have historically occupied a privileged position in Syria and its individual regions. Alawites initially fight to the death. For other minorities (Christian, Kurdish, Druze), the period of hesitation and uncertainty has also passed - it is obvious that the victory of the Islamists will not leave them a place in a single country, and those under attack by the authorities, on the contrary, tend to be more attentive to the demands and interests of minorities.

Thirdly, The West has not decided on direct military intervention in Syria. Despite the fact that the militants are supported, the West is not ready to do someone else’s work with their own hands. Several factors are at play: the experience of the war in Libya (which led to chaos and rampant activity by anti-American extremists); the size of a country of 22 million; the proximity of Israel; Damascus has a motivated and battle-hardened army (in particular, the combat effectiveness of the Syrian air defense was demonstrated when territorial waters country, a Turkish fighter was shot down); negative attitude public opinion USA to prospects new war in the Middle East.

It is also of great importance that Western politicians it was not possible to promote “respectable” officers, rather than outright jihadists, to the first roles in leading militants. At the same time, it has already become obvious that the militants are not strong enough to defeat the Syrian army, which outnumbers them by at least 2-3 times.

Fourthly, Assad enjoys support from Russia, China, Iran and Shiites in Iraq and Lebanon. Experiencing intense external pressure, Syria, however, is not isolated. The support of Russia, which did not agree to the West’s use of the “Libyan scenario” in Syria, is of great importance for Damascus. Syria under the Assad rule has always been a reliable partner of Moscow, remaining so even in the 1990s. According to media reports, Russia did not abandon its political support for Syria even when Saudi Arabia in the second half of 2013, it offered to provide Moscow with preferences totaling $15 billion. Russia played a key role in preventing a Western attack on Syria after an incident involving the use of chemical weapons, having reached a political compromise with the United States.

Fifthly, simultaneously with the fight against militants, Damascus carried out a number of political reforms in order to prevent mass radicalization of moderate citizens and strengthen government arguments in international negotiations. Thus, a new constitution was adopted, the monopoly of the Baath Party on power was abolished, and the state of emergency, the principle of alternativeness in presidential elections was enshrined, etc. Without fundamentally changing the structure of power in the country, these reforms abolish the most archaic norms, the preservation of which would be difficult to argue both within the country and abroad.

The action of all these factors led to the fact that worst times for Bashar al-Assad is already over.

The strength of Assad’s position was demonstrated both by the confident tone of the Syrian delegation at the Geneva 2 conference on Syria in January 2014, and by the agreement of the Syrian opposition to hold direct negotiations with government representatives. Certain difficulties that have arisen in relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia also indicate that Riyadh understands that with the current level of support, Syrian militants will not be able to prevail over government forces.

Under the current conditions, holding presidential elections is a demonstration of confidence on Assad’s part. The elections are held exactly on time, after the expiration of the second seven-year mandate of the head of state. Thus, the authorities show that the confrontation with militants has not changed the electoral calendar. Unlike previous elections, the elections are alternative, but the only real contender for power is Assad, around whom there remains a broad consensus of those forces that are interested in defeating the militants. Experts predicted that Assad would get 70–80% of the votes. The voting results turned out to be even more favorable for the current President.

Of course, such a scenario corresponds to Russia’s interests. But the main risk factor remains the possibility of increasing US pressure on Syria as an “asymmetric” reaction to the events in Crimea and Ukraine. Thus, simultaneously with the reunification of Crimea with Russia, the United States broke off diplomatic relations with Syria. Given the reputation the United States has for enforcing international obligations(especially those enshrined in political rather than legal form), it cannot be ruled out that after the completion of the chemical disarmament of Syria, the threat of US intervention in Syria will again become real. And yet, the strengthening of the Syrian government, which occurs as a result of successful battles with extremists and will be confirmed in the presidential elections, will apparently avoid the worst scenario for the people of Syria.