When drawing up a budget, the company concentrates mainly on its expenditure side. At the same time, the least predictable income part remains insufficiently detailed and substantiated. This article is devoted to income forecasting, drawing up and analyzing company development scenarios, as well as describing the main errors that arise in the forecasting process.

The main difference between a forecast and a plan is that are predicted those indicators that the company cannot fully control - sales volume, risks or actions of competitors. To be planned maybe something that is completely within the sphere of influence, for example, expenses. The main goal of forecasting is to be able to evaluate the company’s performance as “successful” or “unsuccessful” not by the indicators (profits, markets, dividends) that exist, but by those that could potentially exist.

The choice of methods used in forecasting depends only on the capabilities of the analyst - these can be as complex mathematical models, and intuitive conclusions. The main thing is that the final result obtained from using these methods describes the real situation as accurately as possible. In this article, we will use a standard approach to forecasting, based on the assessment of indicators that directly affect the forecast result.

Revenue forecasting

To predict the amount of revenue, it is necessary to determine the future values ​​of the company's sales volume in physical and monetary terms, and also to understand how they can change depending on the conditions of the external and internal environment.

Decomposition of factors

The company's sales volume indicator is not uniform, as it depends on a large number of factors (demographic conditions in a given region, the state of the industries in which substitute goods are produced, etc.), the values ​​of which may change significantly in the future. Therefore, if we forecast sales based only on historical data, our forecast is likely to be inaccurate. To make a decision regarding future sales, it is necessary to identify all the factors that could affect the forecast (relevant factors) (see Figure 1). If the company is not a monopolist, such factors should include the market share that the company expects to occupy in the time period under consideration.

Personal experience

Sergey Pustovalov, financial director of Talosto company (St. Petersburg)

The Talosto development forecast is compiled for a period of five years, broken down by year and business area, and is calculated in pessimistic, optimistic and most realistic options. The main factors influencing the company's financial forecast are: gross product by sales markets, investments in advertising, actions of competitors, growth of market segments. The target indicator for us is the company's market share - it should grow faster than the market, or at least along with it. Thus, in a pessimistic scenario, the growth of target market segments is considered minimal and amounts to 15% per year.

To determine the dynamics of the external environment, we use not only statistical data, but also forecasts of the State Statistics Committee, data from news agencies, forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, and materials on monitoring industries that are prepared for us by marketing agencies, as well as reviews investment funds. The total revenue value is obtained by weighing all these indicators.

Forecasting factors

Now we need to build forecasts of relevant factors. If you have statistical information about past dynamics, it is most convenient to use the dependence of the factor on time (trend) as the starting values ​​for the forecast. It can be determined using Excel by plotting a graph, adding a trend line, and deriving an equation for the relationship (see Graph 1).

Then it is necessary to determine how the resulting trend can change under the influence of environmental conditions. To reflect such trends, correction factors are usually used, obtained through analysis of statistical data and information about expected changes. The values ​​of such coefficients must be economically justified (see example). The forecast value of the factor is adjusted by multiplying the forecasts obtained using the trend by correction factors.

The change in a company's market share is calculated in a similar way. However, if the company is not in an aggressive growth stage, the most likely growth rate of the company is equal to the growth rate of the market as a whole. This forecast is then adjusted to take into account factors such as management processes, advertising activity of the company and competitors, changes in product range or technology, etc. If a company is developing aggressively, then growth equal to market growth is a pessimistic forecast.

The result of this stage should be the boundary (pessimistic and optimistic) values ​​of the forecasts of all factors influencing sales volume. Most companies also evaluate a third, “most likely” option, which always lies between two boundary values.

Reference

The easiest way to express the dependence of a factor on time is using a linear dependence:

where Y is the predicted factor,

t — time.

A linear equation does not always accurately reflect economic trends. Thus, as the market becomes saturated, the rate of sales growth decreases. To take this into account, a more complex dependence is used (for example, logarithmic, as was done in our example). You can build it by simply searching through Excel equations that describe the trend. At the same time, the curve of the calculated values ​​will change. As a result, you need to choose a curve that will coincide as closely as possible with the line connecting the actual values ​​of the indicator. For the oil market, for example, such a dependence will be cyclical, and for its correct forecast it will be necessary to determine the period of the cycle.

Revenue forecasting

Revenue forecasts for each year are obtained by weighing (usually by simple multiplication or division, as in our example) the forecast values ​​of relevant factors for each development option.

Example

Company revenue forecasting

Romashka LLC is a rapidly growing company specializing in wholesale trade finishing materials and economic class plumbing fixtures. It is necessary to determine the future sales volume until 2006.

Having determined the list of relevant factors, you need to construct predictive values ​​for each of them. Let's consider building a forecast for one of the main facts - the volume of housing construction.

Graph 1. Forecasting the volume of housing construction

For recent years The market experienced an intensive increase in construction volumes and prices for apartments. Half of the analysts believe that the market is “overheated”, and in 2005-2006 people who bought apartments for investment purposes will begin to sell them (pessimistic forecast). It is known that such investors make up 20% of total number buyers of apartments, so the volume of construction will briefly fall by 40% (as investors sell their 20% of apartments), and then increase by 20%. Accordingly, the calculated values ​​for the volume of housing construction in 2005 - 2006 must be adjusted, first multiplying by 0.6 and then by 0.8. At the same time, the second half of analysts believe that demand, and, accordingly, the volume of construction will grow by 15% per year (an optimistic forecast), and with the development of mortgage lending, the growth rate will increase over time. Based on the forecasts of banking specialists regarding the number of mortgage loans issued (let’s say this figure for the next 3 years is $4.5 billion, which at the current average price of $1,500 per sq.m. will be 3 million sq.m. ), and knowing the current volume of construction (for example, 50 million sq.m.), we can conclude that due to this factor, our forecast for 2005-2006 will increase by 6%. The adjustment factor for each year will be 1.03. Let's assume that other factors remain unchanged over the next two years. Then, if the optimistic option is implemented, the market growth as a whole will also be 21%, and if the pessimistic option is implemented, it will be 100 - (0.6 + 0.8) / 2 = -30%.

Now it is necessary to determine how the company's market share will change. To maintain and increase market share in the forecast period, it is planned to replace half of the range of goods sold with plumbing fixtures that are “fashionable.” It is known that the growth rate of consumption of such sanitary ware is 20% per year, with a market growth rate of 5% per year, therefore, the increase in the company’s market share due to the change of half of the assortment will be 7.5% ((20% - 5%) × 50% ) (optimistic option). If the demand for “fashionable” sanitary ware in the future period decreases to 10%, the increase in market share will be 2.5% ((10% - 5%) × 50%).

Let's combine the influence of external and internal factors into a table:

Thus, we received two boundary values ​​for the company’s revenue - 30.08% and -28.25%.

Future scenario

After forecasting revenue, it is necessary to plan the company's expenses. Planning of expenses necessary to ensure the constructed sales forecast occurs using the existing budget model 1. Similar to the income forecast, the expense plan is drawn up in two options - the best and the worst. At the same time, the “best” option is considered when the company allows itself to pay for everything that is planned, and the “worst” option is the austerity regime.

For more information about modeling the company’s activities, see the article “Model for assessing the value of a company: development and application”, No. 12, 2003, p. 10 - Note editorial staff

Personal experience

Sergey Pustovalov

The main internal limitation of development is the funds at the disposal of the company. Therefore, we believe that under an optimistic scenario, the company can grow not only through credit resources, but also through the issue of additional shares or an increase in authorized capital. In a realistic scenario, we focus on our own needs and credits - that is, we “grow as much as we can.” When implementing the pessimistic option, it is considered that attracting capital is difficult.

The company's projected income and expenses are then combined to produce four marginal development options (see Table 2).

For ease of analysis, the main financial reports are built for all such options - BDDS, BDR and balance sheet. Each of the four options is compared with the company's goals and strategy. For example, it is possible that the best-case scenario in terms of income and expenses will lead to the accumulation of receivables and require additional lending. At the same time, a more cautious strategy—growing sales while saving costs—may allow maintaining financial independence, which for a number of companies is more important than increasing turnover.

The result of this stage should be the most likely scenario for the future of the company, consisting of a set of three forecast reports, as well as a set of measures implemented in the event of positive or negative deviations from it. To identify these deviations in a timely manner, it is necessary to identify a set of control indicators.

Personal experience

Denis Ivanov, General Director of CJSC Financial Reserve (Moscow)

Forecasts of future income are compiled by the heads of revenue-generating departments every six months. As a rule, the future result of their work is expressed by a single value, but the error margin (range of values) is determined. The economic planning department calculates the master plan and indicates the limit values ​​of possible deviations. If there is a probability of an event that significantly affects the forecast value, then the economic planning department determines the values ​​for the case of such a scenario.

These scenarios are processed in the economic planning department, which adds a range of future exchange rates to the forecast data. Then, taking into account future expenses, a payment schedule is determined, after which the accounting department draws up a forecast for net profit and develops tax planning measures.

Selection of benchmarks

The selection of indicators, with the help of which the fulfillment of the forecast will subsequently be analyzed, begins during forecasting and planning of revenue and expenses - then the required market share, prices, physical sales volume, labor productivity, material consumption, etc. are determined. At the next stage, these indicators are adjusted and supplemented with parameters on which the financial result will depend - that is, trade margins, accounts receivable turnover, share of transportation costs, profitability, etc. In the process of implementing the forecast, these parameters must be constantly monitored, since their steady change in positive or negative side from the planned values ​​will indicate the implementation of one of the forecast options 2. By receiving this data in a timely manner, the company will have the opportunity to adjust its actions in accordance with the pre-developed forecast.

(For more information about the company’s key performance indicators, see the article “Enterprise management using the Balanced Scorecard system”, “Financial Director” No. 3, 2003, p. 12 - Note editorial staff)

Personal experience

Oleg Frakin

For forecasting to be effective, forecast performance data must be used to make decisions based on the current situation, and not based on the results of the past. At the same time, it is impossible to force departments to take into account expenses and income, for example, in Excel. To do this, you need a specialized program that allows you to collect data, plan and analyze it, and conduct plan-factual analysis until the end of the reporting period. Otherwise, there will be no efficiency, and any forecast will lose meaning, since all opportunities for its implementation will be lost.

In companies for which most of the costs are constant (like ours, for example), there is another “brake” for operational management within the framework of the forecast. If the sales plan is not met, I cannot fire half of the staff in order to reduce costs. You can only respond with variable costs. This problem can be partially solved by converting fixed costs into variable ones - that is, using outsourcing, for example, in an IT service, but this cannot be done in all cases. As a result, the work scenarios for our company are quite obvious: if we earned 20% less than planned during the period, then the final amount in the BDR will change by a maximum of 15%, because I can save at most 5% of the pre-approved amount.

Sergey Pustovalov

One of the key indicators for us is the price of raw materials, but the ability to compensate for rising prices, for example, for flour, is quite limited. Thus, each area of ​​our activity has a directorate, which manages the work of the area and predicts how it will develop in the future. It is hardly worth reducing these directorates due to the current decline in profits. Rather, we will try to reduce direct costs or increase the price of products.

Forecasting errors

Forecasting errors are most often associated with incorrect determination of the input parameters of the forecast model.

Assessment of one development option

This error is perhaps the most common. Marketing analysts of most companies (at least in Russia) do not consider it necessary to calculate options for the development of events. In the best case, planning occurs by product groups (assortment), regions or sales channels, and for each planning direction only one set of forecast parameters (price and volume) is calculated, which, as a rule, is underestimated “to be on the safe side.” Subsequently, when assessing the sensitivity of the financial model to input parameters, financiers can analyze changes in the main financial indicators companies in relation to these parameters. But if the values ​​of such indicators still remain within acceptable limits, everything ends with analysis. And if a pessimistic development scenario is realized, the company will not be able to track the negative trend in time and take measures to correct it.

Personal experience

Oleg Frakin

We tried to build an annual budget taking into account possible scenarios, but practice has shown that this does not make much sense for our company. The external environment is changing too quickly, especially legislation and governing bodies. For example, recently the functions of regulating the alcohol industry were transferred to the Ministry of Industry and Energy on one day, and then to the Ministry of Agriculture. If the situation remains the same, then we can predict an increase in income, since the Ministry of Agriculture will begin to build barriers to imports, the cost of imported alcohol will increase, and the share of our income in the cost will not be so noticeable - therefore, it can be increased. Forecasting revenues and looking at scenarios on an ongoing basis makes sense in industries with a stable environment (for example, mining or retail).

Most often, when forecasting, the extrapolation method is used - that is, determining the relationship between model parameters based on past data and transferring these dependencies to the future. For example, if construction volumes grew by 15% annually, then it is assumed that this year the growth will be the same. However, such forecasting does not take into account current market trends. Therefore, extrapolation is only suitable as a tool for “preparing” forecast values, including its use for calculating seasonal fluctuations in demand and prices.

Personal experience

Evgeniy Dubinin, Deputy Financial Director construction company"LEK-Moscow"

It is wrong to use only mathematical methods, even the most complex ones, when forecasting, since in this case the economic meaning of events is not taken into account. If a mathematician who understood nothing about economics had made a forecast of the dollar exchange rate at the beginning of 1998, he would have constructed a relationship that did not take into account the current situation with the country’s internal debt. The same forecast made taking this factor into account would give a completely different picture.

Underestimating or ignoring factors

This error manifests itself when trying to take into account future changes in the external and internal environment of the company. Often, relevant factors are selected in a simplistic manner and both the individual and the combined impact of such factors are downplayed. For example, for real estate, relevant factors will be not only rising personal income and falling mortgage interest rates, but also demographic factors.

Incomplete accounting of proposed changes

The proposed changes must be adequately taken into account in both the revenue and expenditure parts. If this is not done, then a situation may arise where the receipt of additional income will be planned without taking into account additional expenses. Most often this concerns semi-fixed expenses: advertising, communications, etc. There is also the opposite option, when a company plans to cut costs, believing that this will not affect income in any way.

The desire to pass off wishful thinking

Many people due to their psychological characteristics do not want to face the truth, so often business leaders see threats to the business, but do not want to consider them as such. Preferring an optimistic view of developments can lead to a decrease in the company’s readiness to resist negative trends, both internally and externally. external environment enterprises.

BISHKEK FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ACADEMY

Department of Finance and Taxation

COURSE WORK

by discipline "Finance"

on the topic: “Financial forecasting, its characteristics and areas of application”

BISHKEK-2005

Plan

Introduction…………………………………………………………………..…………....3

ChapterI

§1.1 Origin, essence, goals, functions and methodological principles of financial forecasting…………………………………….5

§1.2 Classification of forecasting methods. Review of basic forecasting methods and forecast accuracy……………………………………..10

§1.3 Forecasting and planning at macro and micro levels………….15

ChapterII. Financial forecasting and planning in the economic system of the Kyrgyz Republic

§2.1 Tools and methods of forecasting and planning at the macro level: State budget, monetary relations, balance of payments and exchange rate…………………………………………………………… …..17

§2.2 Financial forecasting at the micro level …………………………27

ChapterIII. Trends in the development of financial forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic

§3.1 Problems of financial forecasting at macro and micro levels...31

§3.2 Ways to improve financial forecasting……………...32

Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………….34

………………………………………………36

Glossary of keywords…… ……………………………………………………..38

Appendix A. Balance of payments and its main components……….……..39

Appendix B….40

Introduction

“To manage means to foresee”

B. Pascal

Relevance of the topic- At present, it should be noted that there is a continuously growing need for forecasts. The practical value of the predictive function of scientific theories for the purpose of making informed decisions both at the state level and at the level of an individual economic entity has become more acutely realized everywhere. A special place In the theory of scientific forecasting, financial forecasting takes place, since finance is an important tool for regulating the economy and contributes to its more sustainable development. And at the micro level, financial forecasting can significantly improve enterprise management by ensuring the coordination of all factors of production and sales, the interconnection of the activities of all departments, and the distribution of responsibilities.

Thus, the most objective and accurate financial forecasting is the key to the success of the implementation and implementation of adopted methods and management decisions. Moreover, the methods used in financial forecasting can be equally organically used in the development of forecasts and plans at both the macro and micro levels.

It should also be noted that the urgency of improving the quality of forecasting research is increasing. This requires a more in-depth study and development of the main problems arising in financial forecasting. The solution to these problems will to a certain extent be facilitated by the study and use of world experience. It is advisable to take into account everything that has already been developed - the theoretical and methodological foundations of financial forecasting and planning, as well as practical experience in developing forecasts, plans, programs and their implementation.

Purpose of the course work- this is a disclosure of the essence of financial forecasting at the level of the state and organization (firm), as well as a consideration of financial forecasting methods based on scientific developments of developed countries and world experience in their application, and, of course, identification of existing problems of financial forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic and recommendations for their decision.

The goal is determined by the need to solve the following problems:

· characteristics of financial forecasting, its goals, methods, principles and accuracy of forecasts;

· identifying problems of financial forecasting at macro and micro levels;

Thus, subject of research is financial forecasting at the macro and micro levels.

Object of study I is financial forecasting data at the state and enterprise level.

Methodological basis textbooks and teaching aids on finance, financial management, forecasting and planning of the economy, such authors as Borisevich V.I., Kandaurova G.A., Belozerov S.A., Blank I.A., as well as periodicals “Reform”, “Banking Bulletin”, “Bulletin” NBKR" and Internet resources.

Information base– these are bulletins of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic, data from the Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic and the Ministry of Finance of the Kyrgyz Republic.

Overall volume and structure The course work is presented with an introduction, conclusion, three chapters and a list of references.

The introduction defines the relevance of the topic, goals and objectives.

The first chapter describes the socio-economic essence of financial forecasting - a description of the origin, goals, functions, principles and methods of financial forecasting, as well as the scope of its application: at the level of the state and the economic entity.

The second chapter analyzes financial forecasting in the economic system of the Kyrgyz Republic: at the macro level - features of financial forecasting of the state budget, monetary relations, balance of payments and exchange rate, and at the micro level - features of constructing financial forecasts.

In the third chapter, we highlight the problems of financial forecasting in the Kyrgyz Republic at the macro and micro levels and develop recommendations and measures to solve them and improve financial forecasting.

In conclusion, brief conclusions are given.

The total volume of work is 35 pages, the work includes 2 appendices, 9 tables, 2 figures and 1 graph.

The list of references includes 22 sources.

ChapterI. Socio-economic essence of financial forecasting

§1.1 Origin, essence, goals, functions and methodological principles of financial forecasting

Forecasting and planning are not a specific attribute of socialism. History shows that forecasting arose many centuries ago. The feudal lords also predicted the development of their economy. But the capitalist brought to perfection the planning and management of production based on a plan within the company. The plan as a system of economic activities in the economy (large or small) arose along with the advent of division and cooperation of labor and serves as a management program for a certain time period. With the deepening of the division of social labor, the need arises to establish and maintain proportions. Planfulness as a social category arises as public-state, municipal property becomes established.

At the beginning of the twentieth century. The first attempts were made to identify economic indicators. In particular, J. Brookmyer already in 1911 tried to use three chronological series of the following indicators for forecasting: an index of bank loans, an index of stock prices, and an index of general economic activity. This approach was further developed in the 1920s in research at Harvard University, where the so-called “Harvard ABC curves” were used. Curve A represented the index of the value of securities on the stock exchange, curve B represented the amount of deposits in banks, curve C represented the interest rate. The choice of these particular indicators as indicators was based on the idea that in the vicinity of the turning points of the cycle, these indicators, first of all, should have recorded changes in the economic situation in the specified sequence.

A powerful impetus for the development of forecasting and planning abroad was the crisis of 1929-1933, which forced us to look for ways out of it.

In the 1930s, macro-level planning emerged for the first time abroad. Forecasts and plans are becoming a necessary element of economic regulation systems. Forecasts were made using the input-output model, linear programming, system analysis and based on expert assessments.

The first plans at the macro level covered fiscal and monetary policies and were expressed in the formulation of national budgets. They differed from state budgets in that they took into account income not only of the state, but also of the country as a whole.

In the post-war years, planning at the macro level became the subject of wide discussions with the aim of not only avoiding crises, but also regulating the processes of distribution of goods. The nationalization of a number of industries and the growing share of the public sector in the economy made it possible for governments to exercise direct control over foreign trade, prices, and finances.

In the 1950s, many countries moved away from drawing up national plans in the form of budgets. Two new directions have emerged. The first is associated with the complication of the administrative apparatus used to develop plans, the second - with the expansion of the scope of planning. If at the first stage national economic plans were drawn up in the Ministry of Finance, then at the beginning of the 60s special planning bodies were created: in France - the General Commissariat for Planning; in Japan - Economic Advisory Council, Economic Planning Administration; in the Netherlands - Central Planning Bureau; in Canada - Economic Council.

Until the 70s, forecasts were made using national forecasting models. In the mid-70s, macroeconomic models began to be created, with the help of which the economic development of a number of countries, regions and the whole world was predicted. For the first time they began to be developed in the USA. Thus, the LINK model includes 10 national models (9 European countries and Japan). When developing the future of the world economy, the UN used V. Leontiev’s macroeconomic model, which consisted of 15 interconnected regional models.

Each country, taking into account the specifics of the national economy, uses certain approaches to forecasting and planning economic and social processes, constantly improving them in relation to changing conditions.

Forecasting is related to a broader concept - foresight. Foresight is ahead of the reflection of reality and is based on knowledge of the laws of nature, society and thinking. Depending on the degree of specificity and the nature of the impact on the course of the processes under study, the following forms are distinguished: hypothesis, forecast, plan.

Hypothesis characterizes scientific foresight based on a general theory, i.e. the initial basis for constructing a hypothesis is the theory and the patterns discovered on its basis and the cause-and-effect relationships of the functioning and development of the objects under study. At the hypothesis level, their qualitative characteristics are given, expressing general patterns behavior.

Forecast in comparison with a hypothesis, it has much greater certainty, since it is based not only on qualitative, but also on quantitative indicators and therefore allows one to characterize the future state of the object quantitatively. Consequently, the forecast differs from the hypothesis by a lower degree of uncertainty and greater reliability. At the same time, the connections between the forecast and the object under study are not rigid and unambiguous, i.e. are probabilistic in nature. The process of developing a forecast is called forecasting, that is, it is a probabilistic view of future events based on observations, theoretical generalizations, assumptions and limitations.

Plan represents the setting of a precisely defined goal and the anticipation of detailed events of the object under study, it establishes ways and means of development in accordance with the assigned tasks, and justifies the management decisions made. Its main distinguishing feature is the specificity of indicators, their definiteness in time and quantity. The process of developing a plan is called planning.

The forms of foresight are closely related in their manifestations to each other, representing stages of cognition of the behavior of an object in the future that are consistent in their concreteness. The initial beginning of this process is the general scientific prediction of the states of an object, the final stage is the development of methods for transferring the object to a new state specified for it. The most important means for this is the forecast as a link between general scientific foresight and the plan.

Although the hypothesis is of the most general nature, no scientific management is possible without it. The hypothesis influences this process through the forecast, being important source information for decision making. Forecast and plan complement each other. In this case, the forecast acts as a factor that orients existing practice towards development opportunities in the future. The forms of combination of forecast and plan can be very different: a forecast can precede the development of a plan (in most cases), follow it (forecasting the consequences of a decision made in a plan), be carried out in the process of developing a plan, independently play the role of a plan, especially in large-scale economic systems(region, state), when it is impossible to ensure an accurate determination of indicators, i.e. the plan becomes probabilistic in nature and practically turns into a forecast.

Thus, in relation to the specifics of finance financial planning is the process of developing a system of financial plans and planned (normative) indicators to ensure the development of the enterprise with the necessary financial resources and increase the efficiency of its financial activities in the coming period. In a broader sense, financial planning can be characterized as the process of analyzing dividend, financial and investment policies, forecasting their results and impact on the company’s economic environment and making decisions about the acceptable degree of risk and the choice of projects. Thus, financial planning models are simply tools for more accurate forecasting, intended, among other things, to clarify the relationship between decisions on dividends, investments, sources and methods of financing. Purpose of financial planning- providing the reproduction process with financial resources that are appropriate both in volume and structure.

For financial planning, information that gives an idea of ​​the state of affairs in the future is of particular importance, i.e. prognostic information.

Financial forecasting– this is, first of all, justification of financial plan indicators, forecasting the financial situation for a given period of time. In other words, in order to use certain methods using special quantitative assessment tools to process currently available information about finances, patterns of their changes, specific conditions of their functioning at a given point in time and get an idea of ​​​​the directions of their development and state in the future.

Home the purpose of financial forecasting is to determine the realistically possible volume of the financial position for a given period of time. Financial forecasts are a necessary element and at the same time a stage in the development of financial policy. They make it possible to develop various scenarios for solving socio-economic problems facing all subjects of the financial system.

Main financial forecasting functions:

· scientific analysis of social, economic and scientific-technical processes and trends, objective cause-and-effect relationships of socio-economic phenomena of economic development in specific historical conditions, assessment of the current situation and identification of key problems of economic development;

· assessing the impact of these trends in the future and anticipating new conditions and problems that require resolution;

· identification of possible development alternatives in the future, accumulation of material for a comprehensively justified choice of one or another development opportunity and adoption of an optimal planning decision that ensures an active influence on the further development of finance.

The forecast outlines the areas and opportunities within which real tasks and goals can be set, and identifies problems that should be the object of development in the plan. It examines options for actively influencing objective factors in the future development of finance. A financial forecast is a study of long-term development that is not limited by a specific economic and political decision, and therefore has a preliminary, variant nature, its horizons are not limited by the planning period.

Forecasting and planning methodology economic development defines the basic principles, approaches and methods of carrying out forecast and planning calculations, reveals and characterizes the logic of the formation of forecasts, plans and their implementation.

Principles– these are the fundamental rules of forecasting and planning, i.e. the starting points for the formation of forecasts and justification of plans in terms of their focus, consistency, structure, logic and organization of development. In other words, these are the basic requirements that must be met when developing forecasts and plans.

Methods- these are methods and techniques used in the development of forecasts, plans, and programs. They act as a tool that allows you to implement the methodological principles of forecasting and planning.

The development of forecasts and plans should be based on methodological principles. The most important methodological principles of both forecasting and planning include the following principles: consistency, continuity, complexity, adequacy, focus and priority, optimality, balance and proportionality, social orientation, combination of sectoral and regional aspects of planning.

Fundamental principle forecasting is principle of alternativeness, which requires multivariate forecast developments (alternatives). According to this principle, it should be based on best option from two or more possible options. This principle is based on the essential characteristics of the forecast and is associated with the possibilities for the development of the economy and its links along different trajectories.

Systematic principle involves the study of quantitative and qualitative patterns in economic system systems and the construction of such a logical chain of research, according to which the process of developing and justifying any decision should start from the definition of the overall goal of the system and subordinate the activities of all subsystems to the achievement of this goal. It allows you to divide any system into many subsystems (the economy is divided into complexes, the latter into subcomplexes, etc.). This principle involves the creation of a system of indicators, methods, models that would correspond to the content of each object and would allow one to build a holistic picture of its development.

Due to continuity economic development, the improvement of production based on the development of science and technology must be respected principle of continuity of planning, i.e. continuity of forecasts and plans. In accordance with this principle, forecasts and plans of various time aspects should be developed and linked with each other. Thus, medium-term plans should be developed on the basis of promising directions reflected in long-term plans, short-term plans - based on the indicators of medium-term plans. Long term plans must be adjusted and extended for an appropriate period. This is due to the emergence of new needs of society, major changes in technology and other reasons.

The principle of focus and priority requires that each plan be of a targeted nature, i.e. would be aimed at achieving certain goals. Priority principle being implemented in close connection with the principle of complexity, which involves consideration of all aspects of the object of study in its connection and dependence with other processes and phenomena.

In order to ensure the most efficient functioning of the economy, the optimality principle. The term “optimal” means the best, i.e. Of all possible options, the best, most effective one must be chosen.

§1.2 Classification of forecasting methods

Review of basic forecasting methods and forecast accuracy

In world practice, more than two hundred forecasting methods are used, in domestic science - no more than twenty. The introduction stated that financial forecasting methods that have become widespread in developed countries will be considered. foreign countries.

Thus, depending on the type of model used, all forecasting methods can be divided into three large groups (see Figure 1):

Expert assessment methods, which involve a multi-stage survey of experts according to special schemes and processing of the results obtained using economic statistics tools. These are the simplest and most popular methods, the history of which goes back more than one millennium. The application of these methods in practice usually involves using the experience and knowledge of trade, financial, and production managers of an enterprise or government agency. This usually ensures that the decision is made in the easiest and fastest way. The disadvantage is the reduction or complete absence personal responsibility for the forecast made. Expert assessments are used not only to predict the values ​​of indicators, but also in analytical work, for example, to develop weighting coefficients, threshold values ​​of controlled indicators, etc.

Stochastic methods, suggesting the probabilistic nature of both the forecast and the relationship between the studied indicators. Probability of receiving accurate forecast grows with the growing number of empirical data. These methods occupy a leading position in terms of formalized forecasting and vary significantly in the complexity of the algorithms used. The simplest example is to study trends in sales volumes by analyzing the growth rates of sales indicators. Forecasting results obtained by statistical methods are subject to the influence of random fluctuations in data, which can sometimes lead to serious miscalculations.

Stochastic methods can be divided into three typical groups, which will be named below. The choice of a method for forecasting a particular group depends on many factors, including the available source data.

First situation - the presence of a time series - occurs most often in practice: a financial manager or analyst has at his disposal data on the dynamics of an indicator, on the basis of which it is necessary to build an acceptable forecast. In other words, we're talking about about identifying a trend. This can be done in various ways, the main ones being simple dynamic analysis and analysis using autoregressive dependencies.

Second situation - the presence of a spatial aggregate - occurs if for some reason there is no statistical data on the indicator or there is reason to believe that its value is determined by the influence of certain factors. In this case, multivariate regression analysis can be used, which is an extension of simple dynamic analysis to a multivariate case.

Rice. 1 . Classification of methods for forecasting the financial condition of an enterprise

Third situation - the presence of a spatio-temporal aggregate - occurs in the case when: a) the dynamics series are insufficient in length to construct statistically significant forecasts; b) the analyst intends to take into account in the forecast the influence of factors that differ in economic nature and their dynamics. The initial data are matrixes of indicators, each of which represents the values ​​of the same indicators for different periods or for different consecutive dates.

Deterministic Methods, which assume the presence of functional or strictly determined connections, when each value of a factor characteristic corresponds to a well-defined non-random value of the resultant characteristic. As an example, we can cite the dependencies implemented within the framework of the well-known factor analysis model of the DuPont company. Using this model and substituting into it the forecast values ​​of various factors, such as sales revenue, asset turnover, degree of financial dependence and others, you can calculate the forecast value of one of the main performance indicators - the profitability ratio equity.

Another very clear example is the form of a profit and loss statement, which is a tabular implementation of a strictly determined factor model that connects the resulting attribute (profit) with factors (sales income, level of costs, level of tax rates, etc.). And at the level of state financial forecasting, the factor model is the relationship between the volume of government revenues and the tax base or interest rates.

Here we cannot fail to mention another group of methods for financial forecasting at the micro level, based on the construction of dynamic enterprise simulation models. Such models include data on planned purchases of materials and components, production and sales volumes, cost structure, investment activity of the enterprise, tax environment, etc. Processing this information within the framework of a unified financial model allows us to assess the projected financial condition of the company with a very high degree of accuracy. In reality, this kind of model can only be built using personal computers, which allow one to quickly perform a huge amount of necessary calculations.

Review of basic forecasting methods

Modeling methods and economic-mathematical methods

Modeling involves constructing a model based on a preliminary study of an object or process, identifying its essential characteristics or features. Forecasting economic and social processes using models includes the development of a model, its experimental analysis, comparison of the results of forecast calculations based on the model with actual data on the state of an object or process, adjustment and refinement of the model.

The methods of economic and mathematical modeling include the following methods:

· matrix models (statistical and dynamic),

· optimal planning models,

· economic-statistical,

· multifactor models,

Econometric models

· simulation models,

· decision making models,

· network planning models,

· method of intersectoral balance,

· optimization methods,

· correlation and regression models.

Economic analysis method

Economic analysis is an integral part and one of the main elements of the logic of forecasting and planning. It must be carried out at both macro and meso and micro levels.

The essence of the method of economic analysis is that an economic process or phenomenon is divided into its component parts and the mutual connection and influence of these parts on each other and on the course of development of the entire process is revealed. Analysis allows us to reveal the essence of the process, determine the patterns of its changes in the forecast (planned) period, and comprehensively assess the possibilities and ways to achieve the goals.

In the process of economic analysis, techniques such as comparison, groupings, the index method are used, balance calculations are carried out, and normative and economic-mathematical methods are used.

Balance sheet method

The balance method involves the development of balances, which are a system of indicators in which one part, characterizing resources by source of income, is equal to the other part, showing the distribution (use) in all directions of their consumption.

IN transition period The role of forecast balances developed at the macro level is increasing in relation to market relations: the balance of payments, the balance of state income and expenditure, the balance of monetary income and expenditure of the population, the consolidated balance of labor resources, the balance of supply and demand. The results of balance sheet calculations serve as the basis for the formation of structural, social, fiscal and monetary policies, as well as employment and foreign economic activity policies. Balance sheets are also used to identify imbalances in the current period, reveal unused reserves and justify new proportions.

Normative method

The normative method is one of the main methods of forecasting and planning. IN modern conditions it began to be given special significance in connection with the use of a number of norms and standards as regulators of the economy. The essence of the normative method lies in the feasibility study of forecasts, plans, programs using norms and standards. With their help, the most important proportions are substantiated, the development of material production and non-production spheres is substantiated, and the economy is regulated.

The balance of payments is one of the main tools for macroeconomic forecasting analysis. Its data reflect how foreign trade developed during the reporting period, which directly affects the exchange rate, the level of production, employment and consumption. Based on the balance of payments, it is possible to determine in what forms foreign investment was attracted and investments were made abroad, whether the country’s external debt was repaid on time or whether there were arrears and its restructuring. In addition, it shows how the NBKR, the balance of payments compiler, changed the level of its international reserves to eliminate payment imbalances.

Producing a balance of payments forecast is considered worldwide to be a highly complex analytical task, and its quality depends on the correct assessment of a huge number of difficult-to-predict variables. The existing country practice of short-term forecasting of foreign economic relations is quite diverse, since it takes into account local characteristics, structure and degree of involvement of a particular state in international division labor.

What is common, however, is that, as a rule, forecasting is limited to the current account, which is the most transparent in terms of expectations regarding the composition and volume of future transactions of this type.

The main problem is forecasting the flow of private capital. It is this item of the balance of payments that is most susceptible to the influence of market elements. The key point in the proposed approach to forecasting is the empirically identified relationship between foreign resources mobilized over a certain time and the export of capital by residents over the same time interval. This connection is obvious and reflects an economically understandable situation when, other than that, equal conditions The investor exports more capital, the greater the volume of capital that can potentially be withdrawn.

In terms of imports, the small country concept implies that the country is so small in the world market that changes in its demand do not affect the foreign exchange price of imports. In the process of analyzing foreign trade volumes, it is advisable to focus on factors of demand for imports and supply factors for exports. When analyzing foreign currency prices, the focus is on trends in global markets.

Domestic buyers considering purchasing domestic or imported goods, will compare relative prices in a given and the same currency. Accordingly, changes in a variable such as relative price may reflect changes in domestic and foreign prices expressed in the respective currencies, as well as changes in exchange rates. A change in the import duty rate has the same effect on relative prices as the exchange rate.

Forecasting services has certain features, because they form a rather heterogeneous group of operations. Thus, freight and insurance receipts and payments are associated with the movement of exports and imports, respectively. Tourism-related receipts and payments may depend on variables such as income and price competitiveness.

Investment income from direct and other capital investments must be distinguished. Income from direct investment depends on the accumulated foreign investment in the past and can only be realized after a significant period due to legal restrictions on the repatriation of funds. In the case of other investment income, interest payments and receipts reflect the amount and value of past and present foreign loans issued and received, as well as the level of international reserves.

Employee salary transfers are often the main components of private unilateral transfers. A distinction can be made between the total earnings of workers in the host country and the amount that is repatriated.

When forecasting a financial account, it is necessary to distinguish between three main categories: direct investment, medium- and long-term capital movements, and short-term movements.

The volume of direct investment is related to the availability of investment opportunities and the prospects for rapid economic growth. Clear rules and regulations are part of a climate conducive to investment, as are credible government policies aimed at achieving macroeconomic stability.

Information contained in draft budgets and development plans, as well as information from investor countries, can be used to plan the flow of public medium- and long-term capital.

Many countries' access to international borrowing is limited and prone to change depending on conditions prevailing in international capital markets.

An exchange rate is the price of one country's currency expressed in the currency of other countries. Such a price can be set based on the relationship between supply and demand for a certain currency in a free market, or it can be regulated by a decision of the government or its main financial and credit body (national bank).

Demand and supply of currency depend on exports and imports.

An increase in exports leads to an increase in the value of that country's currency. The value of the currency also increases when imports decrease. However, the effects of exports and imports on the exchange rate are interdependent. The extent to which increasing exports affect the exchange rate depends on the response of imports to that exchange rate, and vice versa.

When forecasting the exchange rate, methods of expert assessments and statistical methods are used. Multifactor models have become widespread in world practice. The equation for forecasting exchange rates is constructed taking into account the factors influencing its formation.

Let's consider the results of drawing up a financial forecast at the macro level.

The medium-term budget forecast of the Kyrgyz Republic (SPB) was prepared by the Ministry of Finance in pursuance of instructions from the President and Government of the Kyrgyz Republic, as well as the Memorandum of Economic Policy agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The document in the medium-term format has been prepared for several years. Every year a detailed analysis is carried out and adjustments are made for the next medium-term perspective.

SPB is a tool of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic to improve budget planning and effective use government resources. Its purpose is to set strategic guidelines and provide recommendations for the preparation of the 2006 budget. The SPB presented for consideration was developed during the period from December 2004 to March 2005, and defines the framework for preparing the budget for 2006.

STRUCTURE OF RESOURCES SPB

State budget revenues, taking into account official transfers and excluding PIP grants, will increase by 49.4% in the medium term (from 18,811 million soms in 2005 to 28,103 million soms in 2008).

Government expenditures, taking into account external financing of the PIP, will increase by 29.9%. At the same time, state budget expenditures as a percentage of GDP will decrease from 25.6% in 2005 to 24.4% in 2008.

Table 1 shows the structure of St. Petersburg's budget resources for the period from 2006 to 2008.

Table 1. Review of the structure of budget resources, million soms

Budget revenues	18 690,9	20 908,3	24 220,0	26 274,4	28 418,0
Internal receipts
External grants 1
Net borrowings
Financing
Net external financing
Net domestic financing
Proceeds from privatization
Total	23 358,6	25 793,3	28 824,8	31 128,1	33 504,0
Growth rate
1 Including grants for budget support and PIP.

Macroeconomic forecast

The main task of macroeconomic policy in the period from 2006 to 2008 will be to continue the process of macroeconomic stabilization and economic growth. During this period, GDP growth is expected to average 5.6% per year with an inflation target of 4%. Monetary policy measures will be aimed at curbing inflation and ensuring stability of the som exchange rate against the US dollar.

The US dollar exchange rate is projected at 44 som/dollar. USA.

It should be clarified that in the Long-Term Scientific Forecast of Economic and Social Development of the Kyrgyz Republic, prepared in June 2000, the real exchange rate forecast was different from that indicated above.

This means that the production of forecast reports is constantly compared with changes in external and internal factors, i.e. the principle of continuity and focus on accuracy of forecasts is observed.

The exchange rate policy will remain based on the floating exchange rate of the Kyrgyz som, formed on the free foreign exchange market. The NBKR will continue to participate in the interbank foreign exchange market in order to smooth out current exchange rate fluctuations and manage the NBKR's international reserves, maintaining them at the level of covering approximately 5 months of imports.

The successful implementation of these goals will be facilitated by the results of negotiations with the Paris Club of creditors. On March 11, 2005, the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic signed an agreement with the Paris Club. Of the $555.1 million in debt, club members write off $124 million, which is half the amount of non-concessional loans, and the rest of the debt is restructured on soft terms. In the period 2006-2008, payment of 75, 70 and 65 interest payments will be deferred for a period of 23 years, respectively.

Merchandise exports are forecast at US$650 million and will grow by just 2.2% as a result of an expected 14% decline in gold exports due to lower gold production.

Considering the growth trend in the 1st half of 2004 by almost 44%, imports of goods are projected in 2005 in the amount of 891 million US dollars, which is 10.4%

higher than expected imports in 2004

Table 2. Medium-term macroeconomic forecast for 2006-2008.

Nominal GDP (million soms)
GDP deflator (%)
Nominal growth rate GDP (%)
Growth rate real. GDP (%)
GDP per capita (US$)
Trade balance(US$ million)
Inflation (%)
External debt/GDP (%)

Macroeconomic forecasts (see Table 2) are also based on the following assumptions:

· High commodity prices and positive internal processes will ensure continued rapid economic growth in the neighboring economies of the main trade and economic partners, Kazakhstan, Russia and China. This will ensure a further increase in demand for export goods of Kyrgyzstan (agricultural products, processing enterprises, construction materials, services), provided that the trade regime with these countries does not worsen. Given that all these countries are in some stage of accession to the WTO, the latter is a realistic assumption.

· Maintaining favorable conditions in the gold market will make it possible to compensate for the gradual decline in production at the Kumtor gold deposit associated with the natural depletion of reserves and the commissioning of other large gold deposits “Taldy-Bulak Levoberezhny” and “Jerooy”.

· Resolving foreign policy issues, which are the main prerequisite for the implementation of these projects, will make it possible to really begin the development of large projects in the energy and transport sectors (Kambarata hydroelectric station, Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China railway - in 2008)

Medium-term assessment of budget revenues

In the period from 2002 to 2004, consolidated budget revenues grew steadily both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP, increasing by 27.2% - from 14.4 billion soms (19.1% of GDP) in 2002. to 18.3 billion soms (19.5% of GDP) in 2004 (see Table 3). The volume of tax revenues increased by 33.5% with an average annual growth rate of 115.5%, and their share in GDP from 13.9% to 14.9%.

Table 3. Dynamics of budget revenues for 2002-2004., million soms

Total income and grants
Total income
Tax revenue
Income tax
Income tax
Retail sales tax
Excise tax
Land tax
Road tax
Contributions to the FPLChS
Customs duties
Other taxes
Non-tax revenues
Nominal GDP

In the current 2005, consolidated budget revenues are planned in the amount of 19.8 billion soms (an increase of 8.0% compared to 2004), or at the level of 19.3% of GDP. At the same time, tax revenues will increase to 15.5 billion soms (15.1% of GDP) with a growth rate of 10.9% compared to 2004.

The planned indicators will be achieved, first of all, due to increased economic activity, as well as improved tax administration. In 2005, the possibility of increasing the rates of land tax and related social contributions will be considered, since the contribution of the primary agricultural sector to tax revenues remains insignificant.

In the medium term, the basis for further growth of budget revenues will be the predicted economic growth. A slight increase in tax revenues for the period of St. Petersburg 2006-2008 from 15.1% of GDP (2005) to 15.7% of GDP will be achieved in general not by increasing tax rates, but by improving administration and optimizing the internal structure of the tax system. In addition to improving tax collection, these measures will be aimed at stimulating enterprise sector activity and economic growth.

After a decrease to 492 million soms in 2005, in accordance with the changed policy of donors and the allocation of an increased portion of assistance in the form of grants for 2006-2008, a significant increase in the receipt of grants to the state budget is planned to 1,218-1,470 million soms per year.

In accordance with the policy of fiscal consolidation and reduction of external debt, it is planned to strictly limit the gap between total revenues to the state budget, including grants, and its expenditure part. Financing of this gap, which is carried out mainly through debt operations, will be reduced from 4.3% of GDP in 2005 to 3.4% of GDP in 2008.

In general, for the period under consideration SPB 2006-2008, an increase in total budget revenues, including grants, is projected from 22.9 billion soms (20.2% of GDP) in 2006 to 28.1 billion soms (20.5% of GDP) by 2008. Tax revenues will increase by 23.4% from 17.5 billion soms in 2006 to 21.6 billion soms in 2008.

The main figures illustrating the resources of the state budget for the period of St. Petersburg 2006-2008 are given in Table 4.

Table 4. Consolidated revenue receipts to the budget

Total Consolidated Revenue
Total income and grants
Total income
Tax revenue
Income tax
Income tax
Retail sales tax
Excise tax
Land tax
Road tax
Contributions to the FPLChS
Customs duties
Non-tax revenues
Special means
Income from capital transactions
Off-budget funds
Income Social Fund
Nominal GDP

External financing and budget deficit

Total revenues to the state budget do not cover the needs for financing government expenditures. The Government seeks additional resources to finance the state budget deficit through external and internal borrowings.

Between 2002 and 2004, government deficit financing averaged 5.1 percent of GDP. Most of the funding was provided from external sources. The total amount of external borrowing, including budget support and financing of PIP projects, averaged KGS 4.3 billion (5.4% of GDP) between 2002 and 2004 (see Table 5).

In 2005, net financing from all sources is expected to amount to 4.4 billion soms (4.3% of GPP).

Table 5. Financing the budget deficit, million soms

Internal
Privatization
Payments of the principal amount of domestic debt
External
External financing of the PIP
Program loans
Payments of the principal amount of external debt
Postponement and restructuring
Total deficit financing
Deficit as % of GDP

The level of new external borrowing to finance the PIP will decline at a relatively low rate in absolute terms from 3.4 billion soms in 2005 to 2.3 billion soms in 2008, and in relation to GDP from 3.3% to 1. 7% respectively. Total external payments under the PIP are reflected in Table 6.

Table 6. Total external payments for PIP loans and grants, thousand soms

Sectors	PIP payment schedule
									Total for 2006-2008
General government sector
Defense complex
Education
Healthcare
Social insurance and social. security
Agriculture
Industry
Energy
Transport and communications
Other services related to economics. activities
Expenses not included in the main group (financial dollars)
	4 497 163		4 766 034		4 603 452		2 637 781		12 007 267

Internal financing

The main source of internal financing of the budget deficit is the issue of treasury bills (T-Bills), which during this period is planned to increase from 1,753.7 million soms in 2005 to 1,970.9 million soms in 2008.

Privatization proceeds are an important source of financing the budget deficit as the process of privatization of strategic enterprises continues. Revenues from privatization averaged 277.0 million soms (0.4% of GDP) in 2002-2004. During 2006-2008, annual revenue from privatization is expected at the level of 150.0 million soms (0.1% of GDP). The general forecast of sources of financing the state budget deficit is given in Table 7.

As such, financial forecasting systems at the macro level

did not exist in the Kyrgyz Republic. This is objectively explained by the following factors: statistical concepts were not adapted to the changes associated with the transition from a planned system to a market economy, a small database of macroeconomic empirical parameters, a lack of qualified specialists, and a lack of government funding for the creation of a financial forecasting institute. These and perhaps many other factors prevented the creation of a state forecasting institute. Therefore, the initiative to create a forecasting institute had to come from outside, which ultimately happened.

The initiator of the creation of the Institute of Social and Economic Forecasting was the European Union program - TACIS “Long-term scientific forecast of economic and social development of the Kyrgyz Republic”. This project started on April 8, 1998 and was completed on August 12, 2000. Donor services (grant) were provided by the European Economic Society for a total amount of 1,135,265 USD.

As part of this TACIS project on the “Long-term scientific forecast of economic and social development of the Kyrgyz Republic,” the Ministry of Finance of the Kyrgyz Republic and the Center for Economic and Social Reforms formed a Policy Assessment and Planning Group (PAG). The OPP Group is designed to deal with long-term issues of the Kyrgyz economy and develop foresight regarding the development of the economy and society. In accordance with the Terms of Reference, the PPR team received an analytical framework to assist in the construction of scenarios and economic policy analysis, or in other words, a system designed for long-term forecasting.

A forecasting system designed for CR cannot fully take into account all the determining factors postulated by theories. Issues related to data availability need to be taken into account. A working model cannot be too complex. However, it should cover the most important factors and take into account the following basic relationships:

a) Due to the fact that Kyrgyzstan is a small open economy, interactions with the global economy and the impact of international competitiveness should be taken into account.

b) Due to the fact that Kyrgyzstan is a developing country, capital and know-how become the main constraint on growth and productivity improvements.

c) As a developing country, if the Kyrgyz economy grows, its production functions, industry structure and positions will change significantly. More developed countries offer recommendations to Kyrgyzstan on the structure of changes.

d) In any economy there are strong links between productivity, income levels and the level and structure of demand, which are changed through fiscal and economic policies.

Thus, the DESP system should cover both supply and demand side factors. Special attention it is necessary to devote attention to modeling investment in business and infrastructure (transport and communication and energy networks, education and training institutions). The main factor determining investment opportunities is the legal and regulatory framework of the economy.

There are limitations in creating a model. The data base for Kyrgyzstan still has gaps (eg, fixed capital, impairment of capital). Due to the fact that statistical concepts were adapted to changes associated with the transition from a centrally controlled economy to a market system only after 1993, the length of time lags is currently a maximum of six years. These limitations indicate that this model cannot be an econometric model of the classical type. To forecast horizons up to 20 years, estimates of model parameters must be based on at least 50-100 years of empirical data. Therefore, the problem of inaccurate forecasts arises.

In this regard, the parameters of the DESP system can only be based on the “experience” of other countries. The parameter values ​​were brought into line with the structures and relations of the Kyrgyz Republic.

At the micro level, the main problem may be the inaccuracy of forecasts with all the ensuing consequences, which can take very threatening forms for the enterprise, due to the waste of time and time catching up on lost moments, while competing enterprises are progressing at a new level. It must be taken into account that the accuracy of forecasts here is affected by human factor, since the competence of financial managers includes drawing up the most probable financial forecasts and plans. Therefore, the degree of accuracy of forecasting depends on the qualifications of the financial manager, the choice of financial forecasting method and the implementation of strict financial control.

§3.2 Ways to improve financial forecasting

Ways to solve problems of financial forecasting and improve it logically lie in eliminating problems, i.e. First of all, these are the following actions:

Some shifts in this direction have already begun. Moreover, the initiators are Western experts, so the process of introducing socio-economic forecasting is proceeding at a fairly fast pace. For example, the Long-Term Economic and Social Forecast System (LESPS), developed within the TASIS project, is successfully used in economic policy.

The forecasting system should:

· cover a forecasting horizon from 3 to 20 years;

· consider issues of growth, employment, and

· economic and social transformation of the Kyrgyz Republic;

· have a regional breakdown of GDP and employment.

The state budget forecast – the Medium-Term Budget Forecast (MTB) – is also being constructed quite successfully and optimistically. The purpose of the SPB is to give the budget process a strategic direction and make it more predictable by concentrating budget allocations in priority areas identified by the National Poverty Reduction Strategy (NPRS). For example, the Medium-term budget forecast of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2006-2008 is the following structure:

PART I: SPB RESOURCE STRUCTURE

Fiscal policy and resource forecast within the SPB

PART II: SPB COST STRUCTURE

Overview of the consolidated public sector resource structure

The main areas of spending in St. Petersburg

Intersectoral distribution of resources

Fiscal decentralization and inter-budgetary relations

Classification of budget expenditures aimed at poverty

Policy matrix for cross-sectoral resource allocation

Some material from St. Petersburg was used as an example in the second chapter of this work.

Conclusion

Based on the research conducted as part of the course work, we made the following theoretical generalizations and practical recommendations:

1. Financial forecasting is scientific theory, which plays an important role in planning and regulating the economy at the macro level, and at the micro level allows you to effectively manage the financial resources of the enterprise to obtain maximum profit.

Financial forecasting is the processing of currently available information about finances, the patterns of their changes, the specific conditions of their functioning at a given time using special quantitative assessment tools and obtaining an idea of ​​​​the directions of their development and state in the future.

2. When considering the features of constructing financial forecasts, it is necessary to remember the close connection between financial planning and forecasting. Financial forecasting substantiates qualitatively and quantitatively the most likely future development scenarios, on the basis of which financial plans are developed for the most adequate response in the future.

The most important methodological principles of both forecasting and planning include the following principles: consistency, continuity, complexity, adequacy, focus and priority, optimality, balance and proportionality.

When developing financial forecasts, the methods used play an important role. In world practice, the following classification of financial forecasting methods is used: methods of expert assessments, stochastic methods, deterministic methods. The most common method is the combined method, which takes into account all possible (relevant) factors, which means high accuracy of the predicted scenario.

When forecasting at the macro level, the objects of financial forecasting are the state budget, monetary relations, balance of payments and exchange rate, and at the macro level - the forecast of sales volume, i.e. expected income. When forecasting government revenues, economic-statistical modeling and pure econometric modeling are used, and for expenditures, targeted programs for spending the state budget are considered. Forecasting monetary relations is carried out using statistical methods and expert assessment methods. Forecasting the balance of payments is based on data on the development of foreign countries, since Kyrgyzstan is a small open economy and depends largely on foreign economies. The same applies to the exchange rate.

When forecasting at the macro level, a combined method is most often used, which includes methods of expert assessments, extrapolation methods, deterministic methods using econometric modeling, which gives high accuracy of forecasts.

3. At the moment, in Kyrgyzstan, financial forecasting is at a fairly early stage of development due to objective reasons: statistical concepts were not adapted to the changes associated with the transition from a planned system to a market economy, a small database of macroeconomic empirical parameters, lack of qualified specialists, lack government funding for the creation of a financial forecasting institute. The same applies to the financial forecasting system at enterprises. But it should be noted that the first steps towards the use of financial forecasting methods have already been taken. Thus, for several years now, the Ministry of Finance of the Kyrgyz Republic has been preparing a Medium-Term Budget Forecast (MTB), based on the DESP system (Long-term Economic and Social Forecast), the development of which was assisted by the TASIS project. Every year a detailed analysis is carried out and adjustments are made for the next medium-term perspective. The result of this work is the SPB for 2006-2008, whose data were used as an example in this work.

The solutions lie in eliminating the problems:

· the creation of special research centers for forecasts in the Kyrgyz Republic at the level of government agencies, and at the micro level - the creation of financial forecasting or planning departments,

· training highly qualified specialists in this field, or improving the skills of existing specialists both in government agencies and at enterprises, conducting seminars, trainings, advanced training courses, etc.,

· use of methodological foundations of financial forecasting and planning, based on scientific developments of developed countries and world experience, as well as practical experience in developing forecasts, plans, programs and their implementation, i.e. introduction of modern computer modeling methods, use of modern econometric, statistical and mathematical methods,

· strengthening connections between the academic environment, government agencies and enterprises, exchange of information and experience.

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19. Finance / V.M. Rodionova, Yu.Ya. Vavilov, L.I. Goncharenko et al., ed. V.M. Rodionova. – M.: Finance and Statistics, 1993. – 400 p.

20. Finance. Textbook - 2nd ed. and additional / S.A. Belozerov, S.G. Gorbushina, etc.; Ed. V.V. Kovaleva. - M.: TK Welby, Prospekt Publishing House, 2004. - 512 p.

21. Cheng F. Li, Finnerty D. I. Corporate finance: theory, methods and practice. Per. from English – M.: INFRA-M, 2000. – 686 p.

22. Internet resources:

Trade in goods(USD million)

Export (fob)

Import (cif)

Exchange rates(KGS/USD)

Nominal rate (end of period)

Nominal exchange rate (average for the period)

ApplicationB

Scenario international environment economy of Kyrgyzstanin percent

	Data from previous years		"rose vision"		"dark vision"
GDP growth (annual averages)
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Import growth (annual averages)
NAFTA(USA, Canada, Mexico)
European Union +Central and Eastern Europe
Russia + CIS
Türkiye + Central Asia
Inflation levels (average annual GDP deflator values)
Real interest rates
Crude oil price in US dollars per barrel
Som/dollar (real exchange rate)
Kyrgyzstan
Som/dollar (exchange rate) Economic forecasting and planning. Textbook/Under general. ed. V.I. Borisevich, G.A. Kandaurova. – Mn.: IP “Ecoperspective”, 2000.- p.46 Koichueva M.T. The essence and principles of compiling the balance of payments.//Banking Bulletin, 2004, No. 10.- p. 32 See Appendix A Macroeconomic forecast for the development of Kyrgyzstan for 2005 (according to the Ministry of Finance).//Banking Bulletin, 2004, No. 10, pp. 37-38 See Appendix B Annual disbursements for loan-financed projects do not exceed PRGF targets for external financing PIP expressed as a percentage of GDP, respectively 3.3% in 2005 and 3.0% in 2006-2007. Tacis project. Report No. 30. Long-term scientific forecast of economic and social development of the Kyrgyz Republic. / R. Dzhumashev, V. Gerstenberger, M. Kaiser, R. Call, R. Osterkami, N. Ukueva and the OPP group. - Bishkek, 2000. - p.4

Introduction 3

1. Concept and tasks of financial forecasting 4

2. Problems of financial forecasting at macro and micro levels 8

3. Prospects for socio-economic forecasting in Russia 11

Conclusion 14

References 15

INTRODUCTION

Financial forecasting is one of the the most important stages financial planning. The purpose of financial forecasting is to link material and financial and cost proportions in the economy in the future; assessment of the expected volume of financial resources; determination of financial support options; identification of possible deviations from accepted designs.
Financial forecasting is carried out at three levels of the economy: national, territorial, and economic entities. At the national level, calculations are made with the help of which the country’s financial resources are formed, the directions of their development are determined, and a consolidated financial balance of the state is compiled. Calculations allow us to more correctly develop the economic and financial policies of the state. Financial forecasting is linked to the achievements of scientific and technological progress, forecasts of changes in resources, prices, etc.
The main feature of financial forecasting is variability, which allows the executive body to more accurately assess the problem, choose the optimal solution, and foresee the consequences of decisions made. Financial forecasting is carried out similarly at other territorial levels (subjects of the Russian Federation, municipalities).

1. CONCEPT AND ESSENCE OF FINANCIAL FORECASTING
1.1. The concept and tasks of financial forecasting
Financial forecasting is a study of specific prospects for the development of finances of business entities and government entities in the future, a scientifically based assumption about the volumes and directions of use of financial resources in the future.
Financial forecasting reveals the expected future picture of the state of financial resources and the need for them, possible options for carrying out financial activities and represents a prerequisite for financial planning. The main goal of financial forecasting, carried out to scientifically substantiate the indicators of financial plans and contribute to the development of a concept for financial development for the forecast period, includes assessing the expected volume of financial resources and determining the preferred options for financial support for the activities of business entities, state authorities and local self-government.
The objectives of financial forecasting are:
- linking material and financial-cost proportions at the macro and micro levels for the future; - determining the sources of formation and volume of financial resources of business entities and government entities for the forecast period;
- justification of directions for the use of financial resources by business entities and government entities for the forecast period based on an analysis of trends and dynamics of financial indicators, taking into account the internal and external factors affecting them; - determination and assessment of the financial consequences of decisions made by state authorities and local self-government, business entities.
Financial forecasting is carried out by developing various options development of an organization, a separate administrative-territorial unit, the country as a whole, their analysis and justification, assessment of the possible degree of achievement of certain goals depending on the nature of the actions of planning subjects. This is achieved by two different methodological approaches:
1) within the first approach, forecasting is carried out from the present to the future based on established cause-and-effect relationships;
2) with the second approach, forecasting consists of determining the future goal and guidelines for moving from the future to...

. Financial forecasting- research into specific prospects for the development of finances of business entities and government entities in the future, a scientifically based assumption about the volumes and directions of use of financial resources in the future.

Financial forecasting-the basis for financial planning in an enterprise (i.e., drawing up strategic, current and operational plans) and for financial budgeting (i.e., drawing up general, financial and operational budgets).

Types of financial forecasts:

1. Short-term forecasting (composite stock indices, exchange rates, weighted average returns, rates, quotes of futures contracts, etc.). In short-term forecasting, a forecast is drawn up based on trading data from the last working day of the week.

2. Medium-term forecasting (with a depth of one year) is based on data from the same indicators and indicators of financial markets. The form of medium-term financial forecasts can be very different, depending on the indicators used.

3. Long-term forecasting of financial markets (more than a year in depth) is based not only on specific data from fundamental and technical analysis, but also on the assessment of certain quantities that inform about the most expected developments in financial markets and the possible emergence of new trends, or the strengthening of old ones.

Financial forecasting problem at the enterprise level - obtaining the information necessary to anticipate, understand and timely adapt the goals and capabilities of the enterprise to current circumstances. In addition, forecasting is aimed at:

To identify objectively emerging economic trends;

Analysis of the company's potential;

Identification of development alternatives;

Identification of problems that require solutions during the forecast period;

Determining the level of resources (material, labor, financial, intellectual, etc.) that will be necessary for the company to achieve the goals of its activities.

18. Financial planning. Balance sheet method of financial planning, financial plans. Characteristics of individual financial plans. Development of territorial financial planning.

Financial planning is activities to draw up plans for the formation, distribution and further use of financial resources at the required level of individual business entities, that is, their associations, industry structures, territorial-administrative units, the country as a whole.

Object of financial planning are financial resources, the formation of which occurs in the process of financial distribution and redistribution of GDP, and the result is various types financial plans and forecasts.

Purpose of financial planning- determination of possible volumes of financial resources, capital and reserves based on forecasting the value of financial indicators: profit, working capital, depreciation, taxes, etc.

The essence of the balance sheet method of financial planning The point is that by building balances, a link is achieved between the available financial resources and the actual need for them. Now this method is of particular importance, since all expenses of enterprises depend on previously earned funds; enterprises have become completely independent, independent and must rely only on their own income, and in no case on the assistance of the state or ministry.

Financial plan is a plan for the formation and use of financial resources.

All financial plans are divided into two large groups - consolidated plans and individual ones. And consolidated financial plans, in turn, are divided into national plans of individual economic associations (industrial and financial groups or associations of concerns, associations, etc.) and territorial ones. Individual plans- these are financial plans of individual business structures.

Based on the duration of action they are divided into:

Long-term financial plans (calculated for a period of more than one year);

Current (for one year);

Operational (for a quarter or a month).

Basic financial plans At the national and territorial levels there are the budget (federal, regional, local) and the budgets of state extra-budgetary funds.

The budget as a planning document is a list of income and expenses of state authorities or local government. It is compiled in the form of a balance of funds intended to financially support the tasks and functions of the state and local government. Compiled by the executive authority for one calendar year and approved in the form of a law by representative authorities.

The budgets of state extra-budgetary funds (Pension Fund of the Russian Federation, Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation, federal and territorial compulsory health insurance funds) are formed in the form of a balance of income and expenses of state extra-budgetary funds, ensuring the implementation of the constitutional rights of citizens to social Security, health care and receiving free medical care.

Financial plans drawn up by business entities include a balance of income and expenses, a consolidated budget, an estimate of income and expenses, and a business plan (this is a plan for the implementation of a specific project or agreement).

Territorial planning- planning for the development of territories, including the establishment of functional zones, zones of planned placement of capital construction projects for state or municipal needs, zones with special conditions for the use of territories.

One of the important goals of territorial financial planning is the development of programs that involve combining the efforts of territorial authorities and enterprises located on their territories to develop social infrastructure.

In this regard, there is a need for information on the territorial budget, the balance of cash income and expenses of the population, etc., reflecting individual aspects and stages of the distribution and redistribution of national income created and used in a given territory.

“Financial market” - Stock and currency exchanges. The main problems of the functioning of the financial market in the Russian Federation until 2007. Depositories. Professional participants in the securities market. Changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 3 months. The main anti-crisis measures at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009. Management Fund (UIF), spec. mutual fund depository.

“Accounting for fixed assets” - A method of writing off value by the sum of the numbers of years of the term beneficial use. 5. Task 2. Calculate depreciation for 3 years 4 months (item 7 in the journal entry). The railway tariff for transporting the machine is 6,000 rubles. 3. Accounting for depreciation of fixed assets. Receipt of fixed assets. Task 2. Revaluation of the OS.

“Financial resources” - The situation with savings and investments in various groups and subgroups of countries, 2006. Financial capital can also be called financial resources. Structure - official (public) external debt (about $1 trillion) - private external debt (more than $2 trillion). O. Savings and investments as the main elements of the capital formation process (end).

"Capital Market" - Factors influencing the assessment of a firm's profitability. Shows the future value of the deposit. Ruble. Directing money to purchase additional capital. Period of accumulation of funds. Cash: Formation of market price. Equity capital market. Money market. Loan capital market. Capital is borrowed.

“Financial system” - 27. 4. Objectives of monetary policy. Functions of the Central Bank. Balance sheet of the Central Bank. Central Bank. Refinancing rate. Broad money is usually under some influence of the central bank's monetary policy. 8. Federal Reserve System - US Central Bank, Washington. 6. Monetary policy instruments.

“Financial system of Russia” - 5. The paradox of the banking concept 2005-2008. Banking market. Requirements for the financial system. False targets. The Russian financial sector is extremely small compared to the size of the economy. 9. 6. 7.

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