What is summer like? An anomalous phenomenon or a whim of nature: climatologists named the reasons for the cold summer

It's all about "lost" air currents

They say that light down jackets are the hottest item in the capital's boutiques this season... Muscovites seem to have already come to terms with the cold summer of 2017, or rather, following known council, they just changed their attitude towards him. Some seriously warm themselves, while others, like Vasily Terkin, save themselves with jokes, posting on social networks photos of the most popular wool swimsuits this season. Well, the sky, completely furious, gave out a new surprise on Friday - either snow or hail. And this is right after the mayor announced the opening swimming season in Moscow! What happened to nature? Will we get any warm weather this year? And how to protect your body from weather changes? We asked these questions to the weather forecasters of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, the Phobos weather center and doctors.

The arctic cold has decided to Once again test Muscovites' strength. We didn't have time to recover from terrible hurricane, which claimed the lives of 16 people, as on Friday it again brought us northern seas strong wind, leaden clouds and a good portion... of snow, or rather pre-hail crumbs, as meteorologists call it.

The winds are breaking into the interior of our country, and we can’t expect much warming until Wednesday of next week,” Evgeniy Tishkovets, leading specialist at the Phobos weather center, comments on the situation. - It's all due to diving cyclones that come from the north. Against the backdrop of unconditional global warming, disruptions in zonal (from west to east) air mass transfers are occurring. Instead, we are increasingly faced with processes that move perpendicularly - from north to south or from south to north. That is why there is confusion - in the south of Siberia it is +30, and in Moscow on the night of June 3, 0...+5 degrees and precipitation in the form of sleet in the north and east of the region were expected.

It seems that it is time for climate scientists to explain themselves to us. However, they maintain Olympian calm, only repeating that generalizations are not made after one case, and therefore they cannot yet talk about any permanent changes in nature.

What we are seeing now is happening against the backdrop of global warming,” says Tatyana Berezhnaya, head of the world weather department of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation. - Only climatologists have not yet come to a common opinion: either this is a natural trend, or a consequence of anthropogenic influence. For the most part, they are still inclined to believe that warming is a natural climatic phenomenon that periodically repeats on Earth. Only in different regions this is reflected in its own way: in some places people are sweltering from the heat, and in others, like here, they wear coats in the summer. Here is the latest example of temperature reversals: last weekend it was raining and cold in the eastern Mediterranean, and in the south of Sweden it was warmer than in Greece, +27 (!) Celsius. But it is not yet possible to say that this trend will continue for all subsequent years. Although there is evidence that the Adriatic once froze and there was a sleigh route along the Adriatic Sea to Venice.

Historical chronicles also keep information about the fact that snow fell in Moscow in 1602 as early as July...

Well, what will happen to the summer season 2017? The turning point, as it turned out, is expected only on Sunday, when the air flows finally turn 90 degrees and again begin to move from west to east. The cold will give way to warmth, and the thermometer will begin to rise smoothly: if on Monday +18 is expected, then from Wednesday the temperature will finally reach the June norm of +25 degrees, and from next weekend it will be possible to really open the long-awaited swimming season.

Spring and the long-awaited summer brought virtually no pleasure to Russians. Vacation plans were ruined by abnormal weather conditions. Continuous downpours, hurricanes, record lows and vice versa heat confused residents of almost all regions of Russia. What happened to the climate? What will summer 2018 be like - weather forecasters' forecasts

On May 29, 2017, a severe storm occurred in Moscow and the Moscow region. The wind speed reached 28 m/s in some places. According to statistics, this is the most heavy storm, since 1904. As a result of the violence of the elements, 18 people died and 170 were injured. How did events develop?

The weather was determined by a moving cyclone coming from the Gulf of Finland. Moscow was in the warm part. The air temperature reached 25 °C.

Along with the wind came thunder, rain and hail. Most of the monthly precipitation (31 mm) fell in a short period of time. Hailstones measuring 6mm were recorded.

In some areas the wind blew at a speed of 20 m/s. Several automatically operating weather stations located in the central part of Moscow recorded a speed of 30 m/s.

In the evening the elements calmed down.

Consequences of the Moscow hurricane 2017

Electricity was out at 300 settlements(more than 16,000 buildings, 1,500 dachas).
27,000 trees were broken. Some grew in protected natural parks.
The roofs of more than 200 multi-storey buildings were damaged.
2,000 vehicles damaged.
Strong wind partially or completely destroyed historical monuments: monastery tombstones, roof of the Senate Palace, Church of the Nativity of the Virgin.
Fallen trees made it difficult to travel along the railroad tracks.

According to city authorities, a total of 25,000,000 rubles in damage was caused.

No signs of trouble. The disaster broke out in a matter of moments. What was happening was reminiscent of a large wind tunnel. Constricted by multi-story buildings, the wind blows high speed rushed along long streets, avenues and highways, demolishing everything that came in its way.

Causes of cold weather in 2017

The weather began to deteriorate in early May. The first days were marked by snowfalls, and they were observed throughout Russia.

The Perm region was the first to experience the vagaries of nature. On May 7, 100 mm of snow fell in Kungur, Bersheti, Kukushtan, and Yanychi. Snowfalls occurred in the Sverdlovsk region.
On May 8, snow was seen in Surgut and Kharkiv Autonomous Okrug. The situation in Tomsk turned out to be the most difficult. In the morning, a warning was received about a possible wind increase of up to 23 m/s. Trees were downed, wires were downed, and a forest fire started. The wind and rain did not stop on May 9. A storm warning was issued on the 11th.
On May 8 it snowed in Murmansk.
For 3 days (May 8-10), rain and snow came to the capital and region. In some places the snow cover reached 20 cm. During this time, 80% of the monthly precipitation fell.
On May 9, instead of festive fireworks for the residents of Kaliningrad and Kaliningrad region I was expecting snowfall.
Residents had to deal with capricious weather Irkutsk region. In the morning the sun was shining brightly, then the wind appeared and it began to rain. By evening the rain became heavier and there was more snow.
On May 10, snowdrifts were recorded in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region.

Since the beginning of summer, the situation has remained virtually unchanged. Warm days were replaced by rain, wind and non-summer coolness. Temperatures rarely rose above 17°C.

In the following months, there were no hurricanes or snowfalls, but the weather did not please Muscovites with warmth. Two cyclones passed through in July, bringing rain and wind. The short-term warming gave way to another decrease in temperature (15-17 °C). And so on throughout the summer.

According to weather forecasters, there is no need to be surprised by the capricious weather. A semblance of snow was noticed in early June 2016. A cold snap was recorded in 2001/2008. True, the temperature was recorded a couple of degrees higher.

At the same time, the Urals and Siberia suffered from abnormal heat. The thermometers sometimes showed 30-31 °C. This provoked an increase in the level of fire danger. For example, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory he reached the maximum fifth grade.

According to scientists, in such weather, the weakest lightning discharge could provoke large-scale fires.

In many areas, the heat abruptly gave way to thunderstorms, downpours, and gusty winds.

How can we explain what happened?

Causes of abnormal weather changes

Meteorologists identify several reasons for the sudden change in climate conditions.

Intense heating of the planet. It is known that the air shell of the Earth has several layers. The mesosphere and several others became too hot. The result is a decrease in air temperature. According to many meteorologists, we should talk here not about global warming, but about global cooling.
Satellite launch. A Chinese satellite called Mao Tzu flew into space. For what reason did it arouse the strongest interest? This is the first device to use new technology quantum data transmission. The first tests passed with flying colors. Later it was noticed that during the operation of the satellite in earth's atmosphere the level of air ions (gas particles) increases. They influence the weather, leading to rain and hurricanes. Monopoles have also been discovered in the stratosphere. The last mention of them dates back to 1816, which was marked by the eruption of Mount Tambora.
North Atlantic bloc. This is what scientists call an anticyclone. A ridge has appeared in the troposphere high pressure, preventing the free movement of air from west to east. Now it is observed over the territory of Great Britain, which is why cold Arctic air enters Russia.

The above factors have different effects on weather. But the result of the influence is the same - abnormal heat or cold.

Forecasts are of interest to many Russians. What to expect in the future? How will winter, spring, summer, autumn 2018 go? What kind of weather is expected, normal or abnormal?

According to meteorologists, the coming winter will differ little from winter in the classical sense. No sharp drops in temperature or severe frosts are expected. Only at Epiphany and Christmas will the thermometers drop down.

Spring 2018, unlike winter, is full of unpleasant surprises. The weather is expected to be unstable. Anticyclones/cyclones will replace each other unusually quickly, which will lead to an alternation of clear sunny and frosty days.

Forecasters make cautious forecasts for the coming 2018. This is especially true in summer. According to scientists, the highest temperatures will come in August. In June-July the weather will resemble spring. Moreover, heavy rains and thunderstorms are expected.

The weather is unpredictable. As can be seen from latest events, it can change almost instantly. There are many reasons and they do not always lie in natural processes, for example, overheating of the planet or the movement of cyclones/anticyclones. Often what happens is the result of human activity (launching satellites, deforestation.). It is necessary to prepare for any turn of events. It is worth remembering that any time of year is beautiful in its own way, regardless of whether it is a snowy winter, a blooming spring, a bright autumn, or a hot summer. As the famous song states, nature has no bad weather. The main thing is to treat it correctly.

Appeared back in 1975: it was mentioned by Wallace Broker in an article on trends in climate change as a result of the influence of man-made factors. These trends are continually monitored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And the Kyoto Protocol, signed at a UN conference in 1997, is designed to minimize emissions greenhouse gases participating countries. Therefore, on the one hand, climate change on Earth is under international control.

On the other hand, global climate processes raise questions among ordinary inhabitants of the planet, and in particular, the Moscow region. Once in a world global warming- then why is the beginning of summer in the capital region so cold?

However, experts say that climate is not an area where it is worth making superficial conclusions, despite obvious changes.

The head of the situation center of Roshydromet, Yuri Varakin, emphasizes: in order to confirm or refute that certain changes are occurring in the climate, it is necessary to monitor the situation for years, and the climate “step” is thirty years. Based on observational data over thirty years, statistical indicators are displayed: averages for a day or for a specific date, average daily temperature or Maximum temperature, which was observed for thirty years, etc.

Moscow and Moscow region - in the comfort zone

Moscow and the Moscow region are prosperous regions compared to those places where there are fires, droughts or heavy rains with floods right now.

“We don’t have the same natural disasters as in Central and South Asia. Every year, thousands of people die from floods, not because a tree fell on their head, but because their houses are demolished as a result of a tropical downpour. Now there is an abnormal heat in Japan: several children have died from heatstroke, hundreds of people with overheating are in hospitals,” says Yuri Varakin.

However, the cold with which this summer began can be explained by the same global processes, as the riots of the elements in other places on the planet.

According to research by the Hydrometeorological Center, the reason for the recurrence of very cold and hot periods, dry and rainy periods is that the temperature on the planet is rising unevenly.

“In equatorial areas, warming is less noticeable than at the poles, and as a result, the temperature difference between them is decreasing. This temperature difference between the equator and the pole is the basis for the occurrence of circulation in the atmosphere,” explains Roman Vilfand, director of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center.

According to weather forecasters, processes in the atmosphere are slowing down.

“The consequence of global warming is a slowdown in the movement of cyclones around the Earth. Previously, the cyclone flew over the European part through the Moscow region - and into Siberia. Two days passed and the rain stopped, and if it was cold, then after a couple of days it became warmer. Now, due to the fact that the climate has warmed up a little, everything in the atmosphere is moving slowly. And if the cyclone gets up, it won’t budge for a month,” explains weather forecaster and meteorologist Andrei Skvortsov.

Human factor

However, all climatic anomalies and natural Disasters, what in Lately occur on the territory of Russia, in addition to global ones, there are quite local reasons.

Pollution of rivers, silting of reservoirs, huge garbage dumps - all this contributes to making the consequences of the rampant nature more severe. Experts believe that sometimes the precipitation itself is not as terrible as its consequences due to purely economic problems and the human factor.

“They haven’t been cleaned with dredgers for 40-50 years. mountain rivers, the Otkaznenskoye reservoir has silted up in Stavropol region. If Krymsk had not had 17 solid landfills filled with karch, roots and other garbage, so many people would not have died in 2012. The same thing now: there was a squall in the capital region, people died - but many were killed by trees that certain organizations should have been cut down beforehand! Therefore, there is no need to blame everything on nature,” says Yuri Varakin.

He adds that in a metropolis, where heating mains and communications run under the asphalt, trees cannot live for more than 60-70 years, their root system is destroyed and the tree dries out.

Myth long-term forecasts

Forecasters say that forecasts should always be made with great caution: the longer the forecast period, the less reliable it is. Seven to ten days is the maximum period, and on the extreme dates the probability of error increases significantly.

“For three days we can give a 95% justified forecast. We can say for sure that this evening in Moscow, for example, there will be a thunderstorm, because locators record not just rain, but with downpour and thunder. And, let’s say, on Saturday the probability of precipitation is less. But only shamans or swindlers can predict what will happen on the tenth or fifteenth of July,” notes Yuri Varakin.

Despite this, the Hydrometeorological Center has a special department for long-term weather forecasts, which compiles data for the season, but its method of work is based on statistical modeling for the analogous year.

“Suppose we need to develop a forecast for two months: they take the results of observations at a given point six months ago and, based on certain characteristics, look for what is called an “analogue year.” That is, they are looking for a year in which, like ours now, February was very cold, and March and April were above the climate temperature norm. Then they look at what August was like that year, for example. And based on this, they predict what this August will be like. But this does not take into account what August or March-April was like on another continent or in southern hemisphere. It is quite possible that these things affect our climate too. Therefore, such models are scientific, but they are not enough for us yet,” says Alexander Sinenkov, duty forecaster at the Phobos weather center.

Be that as it may, according to Andrei Skvortsov, residents of the Moscow region can still hope for good weather in the near future.

“In the next week we will have about the same as now, up to plus 18-22 degrees, sometimes rain, sometimes sunny. The cyclone is standing - it will turn on its cold side, then on its warm side. But towards the end of next week this structure may collapse - and warmth will come to us,” the expert notes.

The first reason is the abnormal heating of the Earth. The fact is that the mesosphere and other layers of the air envelope are very heated. Because of this, the temperature on Earth is slowly decreasing. Scientists predict the consequences of such weather - not global warming, but global cooling, which could lead to an ice age.

Cold summer of 2017: the second reason for the abnormal weather.

The second reason is the launch of a Chinese satellite called Mo Tzu. It is the first satellite designed for quantum information transfer on Earth. The mission explores the mechanism of quantum entanglement and also tests quantum teleportation. The first experiments went well, but then something went wrong. When the satellite begins to transmit information, negative air ions increase in the atmosphere, which contribute to the deterioration of the weather. Hurricanes and rainstorms form on Earth. In addition, monopoles appeared in the stratosphere. IN last time they were seen in 1816, which was nicknamed the year without a summer. Then the main reason for the cold summer was the eruption of Mount Tambora. No matter how absurd this reason may be, world experts believe that the equipment on the satellite and the quantum operations carried out can really affect the weather conditions of the planet. But they also report that everything should soon return to normal, and the long-awaited summer will come.

Cold summer of 2017: the third reason for the abnormal weather.

The third reason is the “North Atlantic bloc”. According to meteorologists, the “North Atlantic block” is an anticyclone. At the middle level of the troposphere, a powerful ridge of high pressure has formed, which does not allow air masses from west to east. Now this unit is located in the UK, so only Arctic air enters Russia. Each of these reasons can have its own impact on the planet as a whole, but so far the result is the same - we are experiencing an abnormally cold summer. We can only hope that July and August 2017 will bring Russian citizens a little more warmth than June.