Winter will warm you up. Cold summer 2017: what is happening with the weather in the Moscow region? The myth of long-term forecasts

British professor Paul Williams closely studied the video of the Moscow hurricane. Will this really be the norm in our latitudes now? What Muscovites experienced this week could easily happen again, because along with climate change in the world, the world itself is changing.

I don’t want to believe that, based on these indicators, our country will catch up and surpass America, where hurricanes are a common occurrence. Every resident of the central part of Russia is worried about the question: where has summer gone and when will it finally appear?

Meteorologists say that summer will come and will even give Moscow heat. However, one should hope that this fever will not be abnormal either. Residents of the capital come to their senses after. Few of those who inquired about the weather forecast in the morning could see something frightening there - a forecast as a forecast. On May 29, the hydrometeorological center promised the townspeople cloudy skies, a slight thunderstorm and a westerly wind at a speed of 12 meters per second.

It seemed that in order to protect yourself from the vagaries of nature, it was enough to simply take an umbrella with you. But at 15:00, a suddenly rising wind began to tear umbrellas out of the hands of those who were unlucky enough to be on the street, and in a matter of minutes it was not even the wind, but a real hurricane that also effortlessly uprooted and threw trees along the streets, demolished roofs and brought down power lines . It’s not that the weather forecasters were wrong in their forecasts; in the Moscow region the wind actually blew at the promised speed. But what happened in the capital was what is called the wind tunnel effect: on long streets, avenues and highways, the air flow, squeezed by high-rise buildings, accelerated to a hurricane of 30 meters per second and in a crushing squall swept through the capital from west to east, sweeping away everything in its path. After a terrifying storm, Moscow resembled film set disaster film, and city authorities were counting the damage: 243 houses were damaged, more than 2 thousand cars were broken, 14 thousand trees were knocked down.

All this, of course, is fixable: houses can be repaired, and you can get insurance for dented cars, but it is no longer possible to return those that have become damaged. 11-year-old Anya Makeeva was playing in the yard on the playground, student Dasha Antonova was hurrying home from lectures, and pensioner Nikolai Kotov was waiting for the bus at the bus stop. Perhaps all of them would have survived if they had received a text message that day warning them that going out was dangerous.

It is unlikely that their relatives and friends will be consoled by the fact that such a destructive hurricane has never happened in Moscow in the last 100 years. There has not been such a cold spring for a long time, which has now turned into just as cold. Scientists say: what we saw this week in Moscow could easily repeat itself - after all, along with climate change in the world, the world itself is changing.

So will this really be the norm in our latitudes now? Details in the report NTV correspondent Andrey Sukhanov.

Employees of the Arctic Hydrometeorology Laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, together with foreign colleagues, studied the processes of area reduction sea ​​ice Arctic Ocean and predicted their climate consequences. Weather anomalies, in particular cold and rainy summer 2017 on the European territory of Russia are most likely a consequence of a reduction in the area of ​​ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. The research was supported by a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (RSF). The results of the work were published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

The processes of melting Arctic ice have accelerated significantly these days. Over the past decade, sea ice extent (estimated at the end of summer period) decreased by approximately 40%. Disappearance arctic ice is fraught with serious environmental consequences, in particular by extinction rare species animals. On the other hand, the release of the waters of the Arctic Ocean from under the ice opens up new opportunities for the development of mineral resources on the Arctic shelves, expands the industrial fishing zone, and improves conditions for navigation.

Employees of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation, together with colleagues, studied the processes of ice melting in the Atlantic part of the Arctic Ocean and described the consequences of these processes for the entire Arctic region. As a result of the work, a holistic picture of hydrometeorological changes in the Arctic was obtained. Warm ocean currents bring heated water from Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Basin and the Barents Sea, ensuring accelerated melting of ice. Ice-free water areas effectively absorb solar energy and quickly warm up, releasing excess heat and moisture into the atmosphere. Air currents and large storms then redistribute heat and moisture throughout almost the entire Arctic, leading to changes in the energy balance between the ocean and the atmosphere. In particular, scientists have found that downward long-wave radiation (LDW) increases significantly. This is infrared (thermal) radiation, emitted primarily by water vapor and clouds and directed towards earth's surface. Increasing LDI contributes to the warming and melting of Arctic sea ice.

Blue-violet contours show isolines of sea ice concentration in winter season for the period from 1979 to 2017 (dark blue indicates the lowest concentration). Red arrows represent the direction of propagation of Atlantic water. The thin black and red lines show the position of the concentration of 20 percent of the ice supply in March 1979-2004 and in 2012, respectively.

Russian scientists paid attention to significant influence major storms and regime atmospheric circulation on the condition of the ice cover. For example, Storm Frank, which occurred in December 2015, brought anomalous high temperature(deviation from the average climatic temperature was 16°C), and the NDI flux was significant (compared to the climatic norm). As a result, the decrease in ice thickness in some regions of the Arctic Ocean has reached 10 centimeters.

Scientists received data on the area of ​​sea ice from satellites, and the fields of distributions of temperature, pressure, humidity and radiation from the so-called reanalysis product (ERA-Interim). Reanalysis is computer model, which assimilates long-term observational data (radiosonde, aviation, etc.) for different characteristics atmosphere.

"New knowledge obtained as a result of our work allows us to more accurately analyze the causes and consequences of the processes occurring in the Northern Arctic Ocean. If a sufficiently large area of ​​the Arctic is not covered with ice, intrusions of cold and humid air to the European territory of Russia. IN lately This situation is observed more and more often and becomes the reason weather anomalies, such as the atypically cold summer of 2017,” said the head of the Arctic Hydrometeorology Laboratory, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Vladimir Vladimirovich Ivanov.

Meteorologists need to develop new algorithms that include information about the natural processes occurring in the Arctic. This will make weather forecasts more reliable and take into account current climate changes.

Why is summer 2017 so cold? Spring and summer this year have already been called “abnormally cold,” and scientists have proposed a hypothesis to explain such an unusual cool weather. According to them, the “climate catastrophe” affected not only Russia, but also many other regions of the world.

The provocateurs of sudden weather changes can be called orbiting quantum satellites, the launch of which is controlled by China, the researchers said. Their opinion was published by VladTime.

Recall that in August last year, China launched the first near-Earth satellite for quantum experiments. In January 2017, testing of its equipment was completed and the satellite was put into orbital operation. Experts believe that on board there is equipment that affects weather conditions on the planet.

Scientists have suggested that a malfunction could have occurred during the operation of the satellite, triggering a sharp increase in the level of negative air ions, which led to climate fluctuations on Earth. At the same time, in their opinion, the concentration of air ions should soon stabilize, thereby promoting equilibrium in the weather.

Forecasters in their forecasts for the summer noted that the weather will be unstable and extreme, with sharp changes in heat and cold.