An anomalous phenomenon or a whim of nature: climatologists have named the reasons for the cold summer. Cold summer 2017: what is happening to the weather in the Moscow region? What scientists say about summer

The Perm summer this year broke all records: the temperature never rose above plus 25. And the average is only 14 degrees. But now there is more than enough water. In the first six days of July alone, a month's worth of precipitation fell. Some sellers of shopping centers even have a sign: rain in the morning - don't wait for buyers. Clothing, swimsuit and other summer accessories stores especially suffer from this in terms of profit.

Yes, the flow of buyers this year has become a little less, says a senior salesperson at one of the stores specializing in the sale of women's clothing. - But if we talk about sales in general, they remain approximately at the level of last year. After all, ladies still prefer to update their wardrobe. The only difference, perhaps, is that instead of sundresses, customers buy more closed dresses.

Well, and, of course, no one canceled vacations. According to the majority of sellers interviewed by RG, swimsuits and pareos are in the same demand as before.

This year our swimsuits are going really well,” says seller Elena. - I think the reason for this is the resumption of flights to Turkey.

Even traditional summer discounts have not started at all retail outlets. And where the seasonal reduction in clothing prices has started, they do not exceed 50 percent.

Sellers complain the most about the lack of demand sunglasses: quantity clear days in the Kama region today it literally tends to zero. However, price decides everything here. Chinese glasses cost from 800 to 1.5 thousand rubles in any weather. They are used more often as an accessory to maintain hairstyles. But sellers of more expensive ones - in the price range starting from 4-5 thousand and above - are guilty of weather conditions.

The luckiest people in Perm this summer are probably the umbrella sellers.

Modern umbrellas, especially not very expensive ones, break quickly,” says Olga, a salesperson in the “Bags” department. - Many people lose them and forget them. And since now this is probably the most sought-after item in life, people buy them quite willingly.

The cold summer had a very different impact on sales of summer clothing collections in Kirov stores. While some entrepreneurs hardly felt this, others saw their sales drop several times. Those who have suffered least in the current situation are those who do not focus on seasonality and have a constant assortment. This, in particular, was noted in a chain of stores selling clothing large sizes. The flow of buyers is the same, but they mostly buy warmer clothes than usual.

There is virtually no decline in sales for those involved in footwear. The drop was several percent. This is due to the fact that exclusively summer shoes, such as sandals, occupy a small part of the product range. In addition, shoes are rarely bought for one season. Such stores were not visited mainly by customers who are constantly chasing fashion. But there are few of them, and in recent years due to falling incomes - only a few.

The decline in sales of summer shoes in the retail chain is now 6.5 percent, notes, in turn, Elena Brodatskaya, chief assortment specialist at the Unichel shoe company. - Our assortment also includes rubber shoes. It would seem that its sales should have increased because of this rainy summer, but this did not happen. Not only the weather affected the decline in sales of sandals, but also the overall decline in consumer demand. People continue to save.

Businessmen are trying to combat falling sales in different ways. Some are replacing part of their assortment with warmer items. For example, instead of open, sleeveless blouses, warmer ones with a closed collar and long sleeves are ordered from suppliers. But few people do this. The reason is that the contract with suppliers is signed in advance and replacing the assortment “on the fly” reduces the opportunity to negotiate various discounts that are provided if you buy goods in advance. Because everyone needs to plan their work.

Our store traditionally changes the collection very much, depending on the season,” says Anastasia, manager of one of the outlets in Kirov shopping center, - and for us this summer a real disaster. Sales have fallen two to three times compared to last summer. Switching to the autumn collection, which we traditionally do on August 15, is simply pointless. Moreover, we see from neighbors who have warmer things that they don’t really go to them either. There is only one thing left to do - wait for the weather.

But in the sports and fitness segment, players are certainly happy about this weather: while the market traditionally falls, the holiday period and summer “outdoor” activities take up a significant part of the audience of fitness clubs and studios, then this summer the season did not hit the industry significantly. Thus, FITMOST expected a 30 percent drop in sales based on last year’s results, but kept them at the level of off-peak months.

Those who deliver ready-made food to their homes feel even better. As Andrei Lukashevich, managing director of the Delivery Club company, told RG, in May the number of food orders from them amounted to more than 840 thousand - this is two and a half times more than in the same period last year.

Like many online services, we see the impact of temperature on orders - cold weather always leads to an increase in orders. For example, we noticed that rains lead to a significant increase in food deliveries: on some days the increase in orders reached 19 percent compared to normal weekdays,” noted Andrei Lukashevich.

Not everything is so simple for those who sell gardening products.

In the category "Products for growing seedlings", which includes plastic containers and peat pots, high season observed from late winter to March. Due to unfavorable weather conditions This spring, the sales season increased by four weeks, which led to an increase in revenue by about 12 percent, says general manager"GazonCity" company Pavel Akopov. “However, in other product categories, such as “Lawn Seeds” and “Lawn Fertilizers,” there was a significant delay in the start of sales. We are just now catching up to normal volume.

Mark Goikhman, leading analyst at TeleTrade Group:

Abnormally cold weather May-June led to anomalies in sales of traditionally summer goods. Clothing retailers are complaining of a 15-20 percent drop in revenue compared to the same period last year. However, the season is not over yet, and sellers are in no hurry to take radical measures. Although, according to surveys, they are ready to offer goods on sales if demand continues to decline. The sale of “summer food” has dropped significantly: ice cream - by 10-25 percent, barbecue, fruit drinks and kvass - by 20. Such losses are unlikely to be restored. Although one should take into account the saying “a holy place is never empty.” For example, sales of umbrellas, which have become the main attribute of summer, increased by 136 percent in the Perekrestok chain. And the 30-50 percent drop in sales of fans and air conditioners in June was offset by a twofold increase in demand for heaters.

In the next 10 years, the climate is likely to be undulating, with frequent changes in higher and higher temperatures. low temperatures. About this Rossiyskaya newspaper" said the head of the Hydrometeorological Center Roman Vilfand, answering the question: "What is happening with the weather in Central Russia, and will we have summer this year?

"IN climatic characteristics variability now prevails,” Vilfand explains. - Climatologists explain this by global warming. First of all, high latitudes are warming and the temperature difference between the equator and the poles is decreasing. It seems like if it goes global warming, then the air temperature everywhere should rise. But in fact, this leads to other processes - namely, wave-like changes."

As explained chief weather forecaster countries, if for our latitudes the west-east transfer has always been customary air masses, then now such air circulation has been established that cold arctic winds are blowing towards us more often. And a similar situation, unfortunately, may be repeated over the next 10 years.

“There will be fewer normal average temperatures, but there will be more and more alternating rainy and dry periods,” explains Vilfand. Also possible and anomalous warm winters, and frosts in summer.

As for the immediate summer prospects for residents of Central Russia, according to the head of the Hydrometeorological Center, July still promises to please Muscovites and residents of the central regions warm weather, which will be several degrees higher than normal. And even full-fledged swimming season will be able to open. True, so far the water temperature in Moscow and Moscow region reservoirs does not exceed 14 degrees. Only very seasoned people will like this water.

The coming week, as Lyudmila Parshina, head of the laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center, told RG, is expected to be moderately warm in the capital region. Daytime temperatures will fluctuate between 22-24 degrees, night temperatures -10-12 degrees. Possible rain.

As for other Russian regions, the temperature background is different everywhere - up to 40-degree heat, as in Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Kemerovo regions and in the Altai Territory, until night frosts, as in the Murmansk region.

The alternation of rain and drought will become more frequent. Abnormally warm winters and frosts in summer are possible

In the south of Russia, in the Stavropol region and in most republics North Caucasus, in Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, wind speed will increase to 20 meters per second, daytime temperatures will not exceed 26 degrees. The eastern Ciscaucasia will experience warmer air - it will reach 28 degrees during the day. On Black Sea coast- 20-25 degrees. The weather will improve at the beginning of the week. On the Black Sea coast it will warm up to 28 degrees, in the Sochi area - up to 30 degrees. The Black Sea warmed up to 22-23 degrees.

On Tuesday, January 31, the Governor of the Moscow Region, Andrei Vorobyov, made his annual appeal to residents of the region. RIAMO has collected 15 of Vorobyov’s most important statements. Next is direct speech.

We need our own breakthrough. What? The Moscow region should be among the top five (regions of the Russian Federation - ed.) in all key areas of human life. Safety and health, education and ecology, roads and quality of housing and communal services, efficient public administration and a favorable investment climate.

In three years of work we were able close 20 solid waste landfills. A federal program has been adopted under which we will continue to close these dangerous landfills. We will open new, safe waste processing plants and build them.

Every region and every person wants to live richly. That is why our priority is the economy and investment.

Today the Moscow region is in the top three by gross regional product. 3 trillion rubles. And our neighbor has 13. Despite the fact that only the Moscow Ring Road separates us. In terms of per capita income, we were 17th in the country, and now we are in 15th place.

We will continue to resettle the barracks. As part of the implementation of the presidential decree, 16 thousand people have already received new apartments. Here are some very recent shots from Shchelkovo and Kotelnikov. People moved out of the stables and barracks.

Most valuable result industrial, agricultural, investment policy - this is work close to home. In Kashira and Noginsk, in Lyubertsy and Shatura. In total, there are 250 thousand new jobs in the region.

In four years we have released There are 2.5 thousand new buses on the routes - this is exactly half of the Mostransavto fleet - and 96 electric trains. Such a renovation of the park has never been carried out in the modern history of the Moscow region.

To our healthcare workers last year we increased salaries twice. This year, doctors and medical staff.

By quality of education we maintain a leading position in the country. The number of USE scorers in Russian, history, and history increased by 25%. foreign languages. This is an objective indicator. Our graduates are among the best.

We agreed with the residents about the improvement of parks. At the start, we had 25 of them - and all of them were in extremely disrepair. Today there are already 82 of them - with lighting, paths, benches, a development plan, and most importantly - with strollers and children's laughter.

Over these four years we have become the best in the country in terms of the smallest number of officials per 10 thousand population. This figure is 17 people. That is, we have the most optimized management structure at the regional and municipal level.

Last year we opened six overpasses (Stupinsky district - two, Khimki, Solnechnogorsk, Dolgoprudny, Chekhovsky district), 28 roads, including the long-awaited Southern bypass of Podolsk, bypass of the village of Aviation, approaches to Zhukovsky, Ramenki, Yegoryevsk and other settlements.

Over three years - decline(mortality on roads - ed.) by 30%. In January we are reducing mortality by 15%. However, in absolute terms we are still anti-leaders. I am sure that if we keep the pace, we will be able to turn the situation around.

Today we have 104 multifunctional centers - in every settlement within walking distance, as required by the May presidential decrees. The number of requests has grown over four years from 400 thousand to 12 million per year.

Crime rate in the area in 2016 decreased by 20%, below the national crime rate. We implement very important system"Safe region".

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xl" target="_blank">abnormally cold summer. As always in such cases, global warming is blamed for everything. A RIAMO correspondent talked with experts and found out what is really going on with the climate in Moscow and the Moscow region.

Read what the weather will be like this weekend>>

The Ghost of Global Warming

The term “global warming” itself appeared in 1975: it was mentioned by Wallace Broecker in an article devoted to trends in climate change as a result of the influence of man-made factors. These trends are continually monitored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And the Kyoto Protocol, signed at a UN conference in 1997, is designed to minimize emissions greenhouse gases participating countries. Therefore, on the one hand, climate change on Earth is under international control.

On the other hand, global climate processes raise questions among ordinary inhabitants of the planet, and in particular, the Moscow region. If there is global warming in the world, then why is the beginning of summer in the capital region so cold?

However, experts say that climate is not an area where it is worth making superficial conclusions, despite obvious changes.

The head of the situation center of Roshydromet, Yuri Varakin, emphasizes: in order to confirm or refute that certain changes are occurring in the climate, it is necessary to monitor the situation for years, and the climate “step” is thirty years. Based on observational data over thirty years, statistical indicators are displayed: averages for a day or for a specific date, average daily temperature or maximum temperature, which was observed for thirty years, etc.

It will be hot: weather forecast for summer 2017 in Moscow>>

Moscow and Moscow region - in the comfort zone

Moscow and the Moscow region are prosperous regions compared to those places where there are fires, droughts or heavy rains with floods right now.

“We don’t have the same natural disasters as in Central and South Asia. Every year, thousands of people die from floods, not because a tree fell on their head, but because their houses are demolished as a result of a tropical downpour. Now there is an abnormal heat in Japan: several children have died from heatstroke, hundreds of people with overheating are in hospitals,” says Yuri Varakin.

However, the cold with which this summer began can be explained by the same global processes, as the riots of the elements in other places on the planet.

According to research by the Hydrometeorological Center, the reason for the recurrence of very cold and hot periods, dry and rainy periods is that the temperature on the planet is rising unevenly.

“In equatorial areas, warming is less noticeable than at the poles, and as a result, the temperature difference between them is decreasing. This temperature difference between the equator and the pole is the basis for the occurrence of circulation in the atmosphere,” explains Roman Vilfand, director of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center.

According to weather forecasters, processes in the atmosphere are slowing down.

How changes in the weather affect the human condition>>

Human factor

However, all climatic anomalies and natural disasters what's in lately occur on the territory of Russia, in addition to global ones, there are quite local reasons.

Pollution of rivers, silting of reservoirs, huge garbage dumps - all this contributes to making the consequences of the rampant nature more severe. Experts believe that sometimes the precipitation itself is not as terrible as its consequences due to purely economic problems and the human factor.

He adds that in a metropolis, where heating mains and communications run under the asphalt, trees cannot live for more than 60-70 years, their root system is destroyed and the tree dries out.

Ivanov joked about the “terrible cold” in Moscow>>

Myth long-term forecasts

Forecasters say that forecasts should always be made with great caution: the longer the forecast period, the less reliable it is. Seven to ten days is the maximum period, and on the extreme dates the probability of error increases significantly.

Despite this, the Hydrometeorological Center has a special department for long-term weather forecasts, which compiles data for the season, but its method of work is based on statistical modeling for the analogous year.

“Suppose we need to develop a forecast for two months: they take the results of observations at a given point six months ago and, based on certain characteristics, look for what is called an “analogue year.” That is, they are looking for a year in which, like ours now, February was very cold, and March and April were above the climate temperature norm. Then they look at what August was like that year, for example. And based on this, they predict what this August will be like. But this does not take into account what August or March-April was like on another continent or in southern hemisphere. It is quite possible that these things affect our climate too. Therefore, such models are scientific, but they are not enough for us yet,” says Alexander Sinenkov, weather forecaster on duty at the Phobos weather center.

Be that as it may, according to Andrei Skvortsov, residents of the Moscow region can still hope for good weather in the near future.

“In the next week we will have about the same as now, up to plus 18-22 degrees, sometimes rain, sometimes sunny. The cyclone is standing - it will turn on its cold side, then on its warm side. But towards the end of next week this structure may collapse - and warmth will come to us,” the expert notes.

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Published 06/19/17 09:20

Scientists blamed China for the cold summer. And the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia has its own explanation.

June 15 became the coldest summer day in 67 years of weather observations. The air in Moscow warmed up to only 10 degrees, and in the morning it was 7-9 degrees.

Now scientists have found the culprit for the abnormally cold summer of 2017. It could be the Chinese satellite Mo Tzu, which participated in experiments on quantum travel. Measurements showed that on those days when the device was operating in full mode, the weather deteriorated sharply, it rained, and the winds increased, NSN reports.

However, according to them intkbbee According to him, the concentration of particles in the atmosphere will soon normalize. Now experts intend to study the influence of processes associated with quantum communication on the weather, since before the launch of the innovative satellite carried out by Chinese scientists, such factors had not been studied.

Over the next 10 years, the climate is likely to be undulating, with frequent changes of higher and lower temperatures. The head of the Hydrometeorological Center, Roman Vilfand, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta about this.

According to him, there will be fewer normal average temperatures, but there will be more and more alternating rainy and dry periods. Abnormally warm winters and frosts in summer are also possible. As for the immediate summer prospects for residents of Central Russia, according to the head of the Hydrometeorological Center, July still promises to please Muscovites and residents of the central regions with warm weather, which will be several degrees higher than normal. And even a full-fledged swimming season will be able to open. True, so far the water temperature in Moscow and Moscow region reservoirs does not exceed 14 degrees.

The next week, as Lyudmila Parshina, head of the laboratory of the Hydrometeorological Center, said, is expected to be moderately warm in the capital region. Daytime temperatures will fluctuate between 22-24 degrees, night temperatures -10-12 degrees. Possible rain.

As for other Russian regions, the temperature background is different everywhere - up to 40-degree heat, as in the Novosibirsk, Tomsk, Kemerovo regions and Altai Territory, to night frosts, as in the Murmansk region.