Will the refinancing rate fall? The Central Bank key rate will replace the refinancing rate in documents

The refinancing rate for calculating penalties in 2017 changed several times. As of May 2, 2017, it was 9.25%. You can track current rate changes on the website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; 2017 and other periods are reflected there reliably and in a timely manner.

The size of the refinancing rate is equal to the size of the key rate (after December 31, 2015) and represents the percentage at which banking and other institutions take loans from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for subsequent lending to the population and business. This indicator is the main lever of the Central Bank’s monetary policy. Its purposeful change effectively affects the rate of inflation and affects the country's economy as a whole.

Lowering the rate increases the availability of loans and reduces their cost. As a result, the manufacturer expands its capabilities and increases profits from financial and economic activities. As a negative effect, one can highlight the emergence of “cheap money” and, as a consequence, rising prices and inflation.

An increase in the rate leads to an increase in the cost of credit, a decrease in the number of borrowers and a decrease in consumption, which leads to a slowdown in inflation.

Also, the refinancing rate is used to calculate penalties for loans, taxes, fines, and delays in payment of wages. To calculate the penalty for the refstaf, you can use the online calculator 2017, posted on specialized sites, or the following formula : P=C*(D /360)*(i/100), where

P – the final amount of the penalty;
D – amount of overdue payment;
C – period of non-payment (days);
i – current referral rate;
360 – number of days.

Refinancing a consumer loan in 2017: list of banks

The issue of refinancing in order to lower the interest rate in 2017 is a pressing issue for many categories of borrowers. Depending on the program, refinancing helps solve the following problems:

Reduce loan costs;
Reduce monthly payment;
Consolidate multiple loans;
Remove the encumbrance from the collateral.

Among the best offers of 2017 are:

VTB refinancing program.

The bank is state-owned and offers favorable interest rates (from 14.5%). The service can be used not only by public sector employees and participants in salary projects, but also by clients of other banks, with the exception of those included in the financial group (Post Bank, etc.). A distinctive feature is the possibility of repaying foreign currency loans and applying for “credit holidays” (after 3 months).

On-lending at Citibank.

The minimum threshold is 15%, terms reach 5 years. You can refinance consumer loans that have been issued for more than 3 months.

Refinancing at Rosselkhozbank.

Interest rates start at 13.5 percent. An amount of up to 1 million rubles is provided for a period of up to 60 months. Rosselkhozbank is one of the few credit institutions that provides the opportunity to choose a differentiated or annuity method of repayment and reconversion of a foreign exchange agreement.

Binbank refinancing program.

Rates start from 14.99%, terms reach 7 years. No collateral or guarantors are required.

Refinancing at Sberbank.

The minimum rates under the program are set at 13.9%. Special conditions for on-lending have been developed for public sector employees and civil servants. It is possible to repay up to 5 loans from third-party banks, including car loans and mortgages.

Not every banking institution offers credit card refinancing. You can submit an application to PJSC Sberbank, Rosselkhozbank, VTB 24, Alfa Bank (individual programs for pensioners are provided).

Changes in the refinancing rate in 2017: conclusions

The refinancing rate in 2017, the table of which showed quite high indicators for the last two years, gradually began to decline. Its indicators at the beginning of the year remained at the level of 10.0%, on March 27, 2017 they were reduced to 9.75%, and on May 2, 2017 - to 9.25%.

Financial analysts, based on data from the Bank of Russia in 2017 on a slowdown in inflation growth, suggest that the decrease in ref. rates will continue, and by the end of the year it may reach the threshold of 9.5-8%.

As a result, penalties for late loans and taxes and contributions are expected to decrease. But at the same time, the profit from saving on interest and the amount of compensation for late payment of wages will decrease.

Let us remind you that all changes are key/ref. rates are regularly reflected in the table of the Central Bank on the official website.

Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)
Press service

107016, Moscow, st. Neglinnaya, 12

The Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key rate by 25 bp, to 7.25% per annum

On July 26, 2019, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to reducekey rate by 25 bp, up to 7.25% per annum. Inflation continues to slow down. However, inflation expectations remain at elevated levels. The growth rates of the Russian economy are below the expectations of the Bank of Russia. Weak economic activity, along with temporary factors, limits inflation risks in the short term. According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will return to 4% at the beginning of 2020.

If the situation develops in accordance with the baseline forecast, the Bank of Russia allows for the possibility of a further reduction in the key rate at one of the next meetings of the Board of Directors and a transition to a neutral monetary policy in the first half of 2020. The Bank of Russia will make decisions on the key rate taking into account the actual and expected dynamics of inflation relative to the target, economic development over the forecast horizon, as well as assessing risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them.

Inflation dynamics. Inflation continues to slow down. The annual growth rate of consumer prices in June decreased to 4.7% (from 5.1% in May 2019) and, according to estimates as of July 22, amounted to about 4.6%. At the end of June, annual core inflation decreased for the first time since March 2018 and amounted to 4.6%. The monthly growth rate of consumer prices, excluding seasonality, slowed to 0.1% in June after 0.3–0.4% in February-May. At the same time, most monthly inflation indicators, reflecting the most stable processes of price dynamics, according to Bank of Russia estimates, are close to 4% in annual terms.

The dynamics of consumer demand have a restraining effect on inflation. Temporary disinflationary factors also contributed to the slowdown in consumer price growth, including the strengthening of the ruble since the beginning of this year and the decline in prices for fruits and vegetables amid the earlier arrival of the new harvest. The dynamics of annual inflation were also affected by base effects.

In June-July, enterprises' price expectations continued to decline. The population's inflation expectations have not changed significantly since April, remaining at an elevated level. Slowing inflation creates conditions for lower inflation expectations in the future.

According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, taking into account the current monetary policy, annual inflation will return to 4% at the beginning of 2020.

Monetary conditions. Since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, monetary conditions have continued to soften. This was also facilitated by a change in the expectations of financial market participants regarding the trajectory of the Bank of Russia key rate, as well as a downward revision of the expected trajectories of interest rates in the US and the eurozone. OFZ yields and deposit rates continued to decline. The decisions taken by the Bank of Russia to reduce the key rate and the decline in OFZ yields that has occurred since the beginning of this year create conditions for a reduction in deposit and lending rates in the future.

In June, lending to the real sector continued to grow amid easing monetary conditions. The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial organizations reached its highest level since 2015, while the growth rate of loans to individuals has stabilized after a noticeable increase in previous months.

Economic activity. The growth rate of the Russian economy since the beginning of the year has been below the expectations of the Bank of Russia. This is due to the weak dynamics of investment activity, as well as a significant decrease in annual export growth rates, including against the backdrop of weakening external demand. In the second quarter, there was an acceleration in annual growth in industrial production, which may not be sustainable. The annual growth rate of retail trade turnover continued to decline amid a decline in real disposable income of the population. Unemployment is at historically low levels, but with the number of people employed and the labor force shrinking, this is not creating excessive inflationary pressure.

In the first half of the year, fiscal policy had an additional restraining effect on the dynamics of economic activity, which is partly due to the shift in the implementation of a number of national projects planned by the Government. From the second half of 2019, an increase in government spending, including investment, is expected.

Inflation risks. In the short term, disinflationary risks prevail over proinflationary ones. This is primarily due to the weak dynamics of domestic and external demand.

At the same time, elevated and unanchored inflation expectations remain significant risks. There remain risks of a slowdown in global economic growth, including due to further tightening of international trade restrictions. Geopolitical factors may lead to increased volatility in global commodity and financial markets and affect exchange rate and inflation expectations. Supply side factors in the oil market may increase the volatility of global oil prices. However, the revision of the expected trajectories of interest rates in the United States and the eurozone in June-July reduces the risks of significant capital outflows from emerging market countries.

Fiscal policy can have a significant impact on inflation dynamics both in the short and medium term. The catch-up growth of budget expenditures in the second half of this year may have a pro-inflationary effect at the end of 2019 - beginning of 2020. In the future, possible decisions to use the liquid part of the National Welfare Fund above the threshold level of 7% of GDP may exert upward pressure on inflation.

The Bank of Russia's assessment of risks associated with the dynamics of wages, prices for certain food products, and possible changes in consumer behavior has not changed significantly. These risks remain moderate.

The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, at which the issue of the level of the key rate will be considered, is scheduled for September 6, 2019. The time for publishing a press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia and the medium-term forecast is 13:30 Moscow time.

Last Friday, December 15, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation met for a scheduled discussion of the value of the key rate and the refinancing rate equivalent to it in Russia. This time the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decided to reduce the rate quite noticeably - by half a percent at once. About the new value of the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation from December 18, 2017, why a fairly significant reduction in the key rate in the country is appropriate today.

The refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as of today, December 18, 2017 is 7.75%

The key rate of 7.75% will be in effect at least from December 18, 2017 to February 11, 2018 (unless the economic situation requires emergency intervention from the regulator). The next meeting of the Board of Directors on this topic is scheduled for February 9 of the coming year.

As experts from the financial regulator noted, the decision to so significantly reduce the key rate in the country (the refinancing rate is currently equal to it) is due to the fact that inflation in Russia is kept at a fairly low level due to temporary factors, mainly related to high agricultural yields and lack of storage capacity to store crops. Positive news for the Russian economy was also the extension of the agreement on reducing oil production between OPEC and countries outside the cartel. Over the next year or so, this fact will be favorable for the stability of the Russian ruble.

These two main factors allow the Central Bank to smoothly change a moderately tight monetary policy to a neutral one.

Record low inflation in Russia is the result of a good harvest in 2017

Before the beginning of 2017, government economists set an inflation target for the year of 4%. Such a percentage of inflation would be a record for our country; usually the depreciation of the ruble occurred at a much higher rate. However, in reality, by the end of the year it will be possible to establish an even more impressive achievement - inflation will be less than 3%. According to experts, as of mid-December this figure since the beginning of the year was only 2.5%.

Whether low inflation in 2017 is good or is this one of the signs of the crisis state of the economy is for experts to judge.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank noted that one of the main factors that is currently having a downward effect on the inflation rate is the good harvest of agricultural crops in the country this year. In Russia, there is not enough storage capacity to store such a quantity of harvest, and the surplus was sent to retail, which on average brought down food prices and has a inhibitory effect on the rate of depreciation of the national currency.

As the Central Bank noted, this factor will exhaust itself by spring, although in 2018 the inflation target is approximately the same as this year.

Factors influencing inflation will be in different directions

The Central Bank also noted that regarding inflation risks, there are factors that will have both an increasing and a decreasing impact on inflation. Thus, food and oil prices are traditionally volatile, and at different points in time they can have different effects on inflation.

One of the main positive factors for the stability of the ruble is the agreement on freezing oil production volumes between OPEC and other countries, including Russia.

Thanks to this agreement, the price of oil should remain at acceptable values for our country at least until the end of 2018. And this is an absolute plus for the ruble.

As for the risks that can put pressure on inflation and provoke its growth, the Central Bank noted the main ones:

a shortage of workers in the labor market will cause an imbalance between labor productivity and wages - productivity growth will not keep pace with wage growth, which will cause some imbalance in the economy,
the population may be less inclined to save money and more inclined to spend money, which will also provoke inflation,
Inflation expectations may still be high due to the fact that certain goods and services will rise in price more noticeably than others (we note in this category housing and communal services and).

More details about the reasons for reducing the key rate can be found in the Central Bank.

Refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2017: summary table according to the official website of the Central Bank

The change in the key rate in mid-December is the last one this year. We provide a table with information on how the refinancing rate changed during the year:

Date	Bet value
19.09.2016 – 26.03.2017	10,00%
27.03.2017 – 01.05.2017	9,75%
02.05.2017 – 18.06.2017	9,25%
19.06.2017 – 17.09.2017	9,00%
18.09.2017 – 29.10.2017	8,50%
30.10.2017 – 17.12.2017	8,25%
18.12.2017 – 11.02.2018	7,75%

Let's tell you what the indicator is refinancing rates in 2017, why you need to have this information and when to apply it in practice.

Basics

Other name refinancing rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation– discount rate. It is measured as a percentage. This indicator is set by the Central Bank. It is also the Bank of Russia.

It is one of the key factors in the economic environment. Its main goal is to show how much a loan from the main bank of the country costs for an ordinary bank. But not only that. It is also actively used for tax purposes, as well as for calculating sanctions against both controllers and payers - penalties at the refinancing rate and fines. It is directly related to the delay in the return of mandatory payments. Therefore, every accountant must operate with the most accurate and up-to-date data on its meaning.

Sometimes the refinancing rate serves as a guideline for interest on deferred or installment payment of taxes (Clause 4, Article 64 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation). In addition, interest for the investment tax credit is calculated on its basis.

It should be noted that some time ago the Central Bank of the Russian Federation introduced a similar indicator - the key rate, which confused and confused many practitioners. Particular difficulties arose when it was necessary to find out the amount of interest on a controlled debt, which made it possible to reduce income tax. There were reasonable doubts about which rate to focus on – the key rate or the refinancing rate. This was not clear from the text of the relevant rules of the Tax Code.

But recently all doubts have been dispelled. The fact is that since 2016 these two indicators have been unified. The following approach was chosen: from January 1, 2016, the refinancing rate was equal to the key rate for a specific date. Since that time, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has not separately determined the percentage of the refinancing rate. Simply put, they will change simultaneously.

Size this year

At the time of writing this article refinancing rate in 2016 year acquired two meanings. So, from the beginning of the year it was 11 percent. Since June 14, it has been slightly reduced - to 10.5 percent. On September 16, 2016, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, following a meeting, reduced the rate to 10 percent. See “The key refinancing rate has been reduced to 10 percent: what does this affect.” That's how calculating the refinancing rate for today. 2016 the year shows an encouraging trend.

From an economic point of view, this decrease means a positive trend. First of all, due to a decrease in the rate of price growth.

We also note that in the 1st-2nd quarter of 2017, the leadership of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation plans to again raise the issue of reducing official refinancing rate. But it’s not a fact that there will actually be adjustments.

In general, it is interesting to trace the dynamics refinancing rates by year. This very clearly shows what is happening to the economy of our country. For what - see refinancing rates in the table (including refinancing rate indicators in 2017).

From what date is it valid?	Bet size
24.03.2017	9,75
16.09.2016	10
14.06.2016	10,5
01.01.2016	11
14.09.2012	8,25
26.12.2011	8
03.05.2011	8,25
28.02.2011	8
01.06.2010	7,75
30.04.2010	8
29.03.2010	8,25
24.02.2010	8,5
28.12.2009	8,75
25.11.2009	9
30.10.2009	9,5
30.09.2009	10
15.09.2009	10,5
10.08.2009	10,75
13.07.2009	11
05.06.2009	11,5
14.05.2009	12
24.04.2009	12,5
01.12.2008	13
12.11.2008	12
14.07.2008	11,0
10.06.2008	10,75
29.04.2008	10,5
04.02.2008	10,25
19.06.2007	10
29.01.2007	10,5
23.10.2006	11,0
26.06.2006	11,5
26.12.2005	12
15.06.2004	13
15.01.2004	14
21.06.2003	16
17.02.2003	18
07.08.2002	21
09.04.2002	23
04.11.2000	25
10.07.2000	28
21.03.2000	33
07.03.2000	38
24.01.2000	45

From January 1, 2016, the value of the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of Russia determined on the corresponding date is equal to the value of the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia. The corresponding Directive of the Central Bank of Russia was signed on December 11, 2015 and came into force from the date of its signing. On December 16, 2015, the document was published in the Bulletin of the Bank of Russia.

The current refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation as of today, July 26, 2019, is 7.75% per annum.

We remind you that the refinancing rate is the amount of annual interest payable to the Central Bank of Russia for any loans provided to credit institutions. And the key rate is the rate at which the Central Bank of the Russian Federation provides its loans to commercial banks for a period of one week, and accepts money from banks for deposit for the same period. fixed from September 14, 2012 at the rate of 8.25% per annum, from January 1, 2016 its value corresponds to the value of the Bank of Russia key rate on the corresponding date, and was determined at 10.5% per annum from August 3, 2015. Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia On June 10, 2016, he decided to reduce the key rate by 50 bp. - up to 10.50% per annum.

September 15, 2016 /TASS/. The Bank of Russia decided to reduce the key rate by 0.5 percentage points (pp), to 10% per annum.

The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at a meeting on March 24, 2017 reduced the key rate to 9.75% per annum, the regulator reports. In 2017, the Central Bank lowered it six times.

On April 28, 2017, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was lowered to 9.25% per annum, and on June 16 to 9% per annum. September 15 up to 8.5% per annum. October 27 up to 8.25% per annum, December 15 up to 7.75% per annum.

At a meeting on February 9, 2018, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to lower the key rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 7.5% per annum. This was reported in a press release from the regulator. March 23 to 7.25% from 7.5% a month and a half after the previous decrease. For the first time since December 2014, the regulator increased the key rate on September 14, 2018 to 7.5%.

At the same time, on September 13, 2013, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, by introducing the key rate, defined it as the main indicator of the direction of monetary and credit policy, and indicating the secondary importance of the refinancing rate. On December 11, 2015, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Russia decided to equate the value of the refinancing rate from January 1, 2016 to the value of the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia determined on the corresponding date. From the beginning of 2016, an independent value for the refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia will not be established - any change in the refinancing rate in the future will occur simultaneously with a change in the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia by the same amount.

The Head of the Government of the Russian Federation noted that the Key Rate is the main indicator of monetary policy in Russia.